Wednesday, December 31, 2008

2008 - what a crazy year behind us!

subprime crisis, recession, depression, barrack hussein obama, huuuuge bailouts on banks + car makers, huuuge amounts of money pumped into the markets, interest rate cut down to 0% + huuuuge additional mistakes of politicians and their small dirty central banks all over the world ... ToDo :o) ...

but will all these market manipulations & regulations help somehow? or will that help just few 'bailouted' bankers + other buddies of current governments? what if the consumption has some limitations? what if everyone already owns a car(s), flatscreen-TV(s), notebook(s), ipod(s), mobile phone(s), ... who in the hell should buy all these new products? what about solid economic policies like wealth based on work and savings instead of borrowing and spending? what about solid money supply (gold standard)? what about freedom and cooperation in the world instead of wars on terror, (oil-)wars in middle east, wars against democracy in western democracies, ... ?

let's hope for a better world and let's support forces which could make it happen, ok? btw, my absolute favorite in 2008 for a better world order was ron paul and his presidential candidature, but he couldn't beat mccain who become the candidate of the republican party. well, after the 8-year-long-republican-disaster under 'ruinator' george w. bush there was time for a change of the ruling party (i don't believe in change in u.s. economic politics) = time 4 barrack hussein obama (= my older posting).

current CFD account size €373

folks, i had to add some money again and my overall 'investment' into this trading adventure :o(. the costs of my trading study + the study of my soul since the very beginning in march 2007 reached € 3,333. what a nice number, isn't it?

well, i'm still trying to trade in the position-trader-mode even if the market seems to favor day-traders :o)). but as i know that i do not have enough time during the regular trading hours [and probably also not the appropriate intuition :-], so i do not really try day-trading now... well, i do often use a 5% trailing stop, but the huuuuge market volatility throws me too often out of my positions just to show me that the market moved in my anticipated direction later... well, i have to use stops anyway (compare my former lessons learned :o] as they help to protect my trading capital in case my opinion is absolutely wrong (btw, i would never, never, never believe that oil will fall from $150 to $35 in few months and without stops i would probably loose all my money while betting on its recovery starting from about $85, isn't it?)

open positions (all contracts are on the 'long' side :-):

2 x natural gas
1 x silver
1 x coffee
1 x orange juice
1 x sugar

... to do ... purchase date + price, stop limits, ...

Monday, December 29, 2008

silver long $10.87

... stop-loss-limit moved from initial $10.43 to $10.88 as silver jumped 3.16% to $11.36 today ... exit @ 10.88 on 01/07/2008 (http://jarogruber.blogspot.com/2009/01/re-entry-in-silver-coffee.html)

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

there is no santa claus ....

foks,

in munich is our x-mas dinner already over, in usa you will probably start with the celebration soon :-)

i've checked ALL presents under the x-mas tree, there was not a single stock or ETF from my 27 positions long wish list which i've published already in this november blog-post :o). do you think santa claus had no time to read my wish list or did he even thought that it is not a good time to buy stocks as they will fall further next year? who knows that?

... even if i got no stocks, no gold/silver coins (therefore i bought few myself), there were 2 nice investing books under our x-mas tree! one i've got from the switzerland's subsidiary of abn amro (jim rogers - a bull in china) and the 2nd from my internet buddy from berlin (a book on financial crisis ... the world is going to break apart :o)

i wish you all nice holidays + health + best luck + satisfaction for the next year(s) :o)

greetings from munich,
j.

Monday, December 22, 2008

silver, sugar, o-juice, coffee, natural gas

... to do ... ... let's bet on commodity-strength based on dollar weakness, the current low commodity prices, the demand supply relationship, ...

margin coverage too low = positions liquidated

... to do ... good luck this time as the liquidation price was higher as my placed stop limits and the prices fell later further :o)

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

silver

to do (on the weekend:) ... publish trade ... silver long ....

interest rate 0%

these stupid governments + their small corrupt central banks are sooo unbelievable idiotic! how can they set the interest rate to ZERO? well, they did today as the FED + BOJ (bank of japan) cut their fund rates to 0%. i think, the ECB will follow soon :o(. what is the next step? a negative interest rate? will they pay the incompetent & greedy banks money in order to initiate them to borrow new money? as long as money is just a piece of paper or a number in some computer system they surely can do that. but let's wait till money is gold + silver again! let's wait for the coming monetary reform! well, what to do till then? let's launch a bank and also borrow all that MONEY FOR FREE! well, we will be not alone doing so as the last 2 u.s. investment banks (goldman sachs + morgan stanley) + american express + few other financial institutions changed their status to a 'normal' business bank already in order to participate in the crazy bailouts + to get all the money they want to from FED directly :o(

these politicians & central bankers are soooo stupid! welcome in the next round of inflationary horror! be prepared => buy as much gold + silver + oil + commodities as you can afford :o)). thx goodness, i've bought gold + silver + energy + commodity shares in the last 2 weeks with all money available! why? in 2009 (in germany) will all financial gains become tax related => let's buy stocks this year at these low, low, low prices and avoid that tax forever !!!


how liked the markets that sick zero-rate-decision? they liked it a lot:

  • silver +6,02%
  • gold +2,21%
  • DJIA +4,20%
  • s&p500 +5,14%
  • nasdaq100 +5,21%
  • eur/usd +2,62% ... => IMHO it is just the beginning of the end of the USD => good-bye USD! did u recognize the slight but important difference to 'good buy'? yes? well, the usd is not a good buy at all! if the u.s. government/FED will not stop creating money like crazy, the usd will join all other former paper currencies on their small dirty currency cemetery soon :o). good-bye our current paper-money-system, hello & welcome our next gold/silver based monetary system :o)

Friday, December 12, 2008

coffee

to do (on the weekend:) ... limit order filled ... coffee long ...

Thursday, December 11, 2008

orange juice

to do (on the weekend:) ... document open trade ... orange juice long ...

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

natural gas

item--------------: natural gas
units--------------: 1
trade type--------: long
order type--------: market buy / limit sell
entry date--------: 12/10/2008, 20:29
entry price-------: 5.71
initial stop loss--: 5.41 => 5.18 => 5.55
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: natural gas is in my opinion so unbelievable cheap! and the cold winter months are already here! damned hell, do i really need some other reason for that trade? no, i do not!!! pls, do not tell me that oil fell another few bucks to its lowest level in the last 4 years. why? because i'm not blind + i can see it myself! nevertheless, let's bet some money on my opinion, ok? my stop loss limit should protect my remaining capital if i'm wrong :o)
lessons learned: ... let's ALWAYS use stop limits


item--------------: natural gas
units--------------: 1
trade type--------: long
order type--------: market buy / limit sell
entry date--------: 12/09/2008, 23:25
entry price-------: 5.69
initial stop loss--: 5.38
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: natural gas is in my opinion so unbelievable cheap! and the cold winter months are already here! damned hell, do i really need some other reason for that trade? no, i do not!!! pls, do not tell me that oil fell another few bucks to its lowest level in the last 4 years. why? because i'm not blind + i can see it myself! nevertheless, let's bet some money on my opinion, ok? my stop loss limit should protect my remaining capital if i'm wrong :o)
lessons learned: ... let's ALWAYS use stop limits

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

crazy monday! no comments ...

after the worst unemployment data since decades (last friday, more than 500,00 new jobless folks in the usa, worst data for 34 years!) rallied the stock markets on friday => ???

DAX +7,63%
DJ Euro Stoxx +8,76%
Dow Jones Industrial Average +3,46%
S&P500 +3,84%
NASDAQ100 +4,01%
Nikkei225 +5,20%

CBOE OIL INDEX +6,18%
Silver Spot +4,80%
Gold Spot +1,82%
Palladium Spot +8,46%
Platinum Spot +3,55%

Thursday, December 4, 2008

€104 lost today, all positions liquidated ;o(

hi folks, my margin buffer was to low for my open positions => all positions liquidated by my broker => it is sad ;o((, but IT'S CORRECT. otherwise i could even lose more than i have on securities there :o) => lesson learned (forever!):

I WILL ALWAYS USE STOPS !!!

folks, u can look-up in a dictionary what ALWAYS means, will u? u can be sure that it means EVERY TIME and it does not mean sometimes yes and sometimes not :o))

current account size: € 138. minimum margin allowed = €200 => broker closed all open positions. this time is the liqudation value of my positions about the same as the current market value of them. there were also situations in the past where the liqudation value was much higher than the daily close value as the market fell further dramatically => so we never know where the bottom is => we have to use stops to protect our trading capital => in the long term it should save more money as we would probably lose through 'false' breaks with following movement in our anticipated direction :-))

my positions on that sad thursday:

item--------------: natural gas
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market buy / limit sell
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 12/02/2008, 0:48
entry price-------: 6.56
initial stop loss--: 6.26
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 12/04/2008, 15:37
exit price---------: 6.26
profit (loss) in %-: (4.57)
profit (loss)------: ($30)
reason why + strategy: natural gas was probably the only real asset (do not bore me with bonds!) which went UP on this crash monday! this must be a sign of strength!!! in my opinion is gas still so unbelievable cheap! and the cold winter months are already here! damned hell, do i really need some other reason for that trade? no, i do not!!! pls, do not tell me that oil fell another few bucks to its lowest level in the last 4 years. why? because i'm not blind + i can see it myself! nevertheless, let's bet some money on my opinion, ok? my stop loss limit should protect my remaining capital if i'm wrong :o)
lessons learned: my opinion was wrong, my stop limit protected me against a much higher loss. let's use stop limits ALWAYS :o)


item--------------: natural gas
units--------------: 1
order type--------: limit buy / liquidation sell
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 12/02/2008, 0:48
entry price-------: 6.06
initial stop loss--: NONE :o((
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 12/04/2008, 17:18
exit price---------: 5.98
profit/loss in %--: - 1.32%
profit/loss-------: - 8 $
reason why + strategy: i've believed that natural gas was sooo cheap and bought additional position (limit order) even if my account was already to low for new positions and there was also no margin buffer there. well, mr. market had some other opinion about the price development than me :o(
lessons learned: my opinion was COMPLETELY wrong, the missing stop limit could cause even worse damage to my account as the price fell after the liquidation further! let's use stop limits ALWAYS :o)


item--------------: natural gas
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market buy / liquidation sell
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 11/25/2008, 0:48
entry price-------: 6.73
initial stop loss--: NONE :o((
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 12/04/2008, 17:18
exit price---------: 5.98
profit/loss in %-: - 11.14%
profit/loss------: - 75 $
reason why + strategy: i've believed that natural gas was sooo cheap, but the market didn't :o(
lessons learned: my opinion was COMPLETELY wrong, the missing stop limit caused so much damage in my account! let's use stop limits ALWAYS :o)


item--------------: coffee
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market buy / liquidation sell
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 11/25/2008, 10:06
entry price-------: 114.3
initial stop loss--: NONE :o((
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 12/04/2008, 17:18
exit price---------: 106.8
profit (loss) in %-: (6.56%)
profit (loss)------: ($75)
reason why + strategy: i've believed that coffee was sooo cheap, but the market didn't :o(
lessons learned: my opinion was COMPLETELY wrong, the missing stop limit caused so much damage in my account! let's use stop limits ALWAYS :o)


item--------------: sugar
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market buy / limit sell
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 11/25/2008, 10:05
entry price-------: 11.74
initial stop loss--: NONE :o((
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 12/04/2008, 17:18
exit price---------: 10.90
profit (loss) in %-: (7.15%)
profit (loss)------: ($84)
reason why + strategy: i've believed that sugar was sooo cheap, but the market didn't :o(
lessons learned: my opinion was COMPLETELY wrong, the missing stop limit caused so much damage in my account! let's use stop limits ALWAYS :o)


item--------------: orange juice
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market buy / limit sell
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 11/25/2008, 15:07
entry price-------: 77.3
initial stop loss--: NONE :o((
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 12/04/2008, 15:37
exit price---------: 72.7
profit (loss) in %-: (9.4%)
profit (loss)------: ($46)
reason why + strategy: i've believed that orange juice was sooo cheap (at 5 years lows!!!), but the market didn't :o(
lessons learned: my opinion was COMPLETELY wrong, the missing stop limit caused so much damage in my account! let's use stop limits ALWAYS :o)

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

toronto60 long (again:)

item--------------: toronto60
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / stop loss limit (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 12/02/2008, 16:28
entry price-------: 510.3
initial stop loss--: 491.0
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 12/03/2008, 14:30
exit price---------: 488.5 (gap down)
profit (loss) in %-: (4.3%)
profit (loss)------: (CAD 21.8)
reason why + strategy: in my opinion will the stock market in general and the canadian commodity-based market in particular go up a lot => let's bet on that!
lessons learned: my opinion was (in the short term) wrong, the index fell after my stop limit just 3 points deeper :o((, then recovered a little bit, is now @ 499.9, i still believe it will go up significantly, my account is (again) too small to open a new position and will probably be liquidated tomorrow (margin buffer just about 38 €uros), but maybe i will have some luck and sugar / gas / coffee / o-juice will go up from the start :o))

Monday, December 1, 2008

stop loss limits, where have you been today?

next crashy monday!

watch + listen to meridith whitney (oppenheimer & co.):



gold -6.18%
silver -10.23%
DJIA -7.70%
s&p500 -8.93%
brent oil -11.79%
corn -5.16%
...
well, i've had just 1 stop loss limit in the market ;o(. why just one, jaro, WHY??? even despite huge slippage saved this stop limit some money as the stock market is much deeper now :-)


item--------------: toronto60
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / stop loss limit (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 11/25/2008, 10:05
entry price-------: 522.4
initial stop loss--: NONE ;o(
new stop-loss----: 548.0 (i.e. 3% bellow currents price:)
exit date---------: 11/25/2008, 15:30
exit price---------: 533.7 (=> a huge -7.41% gap down today!)
profit (loss) in %-: 2.16%
profit (loss)------: CAD $ 11.3
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is this canadian stock index so unbelievable cheap + full of commodity companies, so let's take a bet on its recovery :o)
lessons learned: my opinion was wrong, the market crashed again (manic mondays!), the stop-loss-limit avoided the switch of this winning trade into a loss, a small profit out of this trade is still there :o)


item--------------: natural gas
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 12/02/2008, 0:48 => damned early / freaking late?
entry price-------: 6.56
initial stop loss--: 6.26
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: natural gas was probably the only real asset (do not bore me with bonds!) which went UP on this crash monday! this must be a sign of strength!!! in my opinion is gas still so unbelievable cheap! and the cold winter months are already here! damned hell, do i really need some other reason for that trade? no, i do not!!! pls, do not tell me that oil fell another few bucks to its lowest level in the last 4 years. why? because i'm not blind + i can see it myself! nevertheless, let's bet some money on my opinion, ok? my stop loss limit should protect my remaining capital if i'm wrong :o)
lessons learned: ...

Sunday, November 30, 2008

current account size € 415

folks, i had to add some money (€ 276) again after i've got about 50 margin calls a week ago (i.e. 1 per hour :). as i didn't respond and didn't throw additional money into the 'fire', my broker liquidated my positions after the minimum margin level was broken down (THAT'S CORRECT :-). what does it mean? well, my overall 'investment' into this trading adventure (or my personal market study + the study of my soul?) since the beginning in march 2007 reached € 3,003. what a nice number, isn't it?

current positions:

item--------------: natural gas
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 11/25/2008, 12:33
entry price-------: 6.73
initial stop loss--: NONE, gas is soooo cheap already, i don't believe it can fall much bellow $6, so let's try my luck without stop limit this time. btw, this position is small enough, it shouldn't hurt my portfolio too much if i'm wrong :o). initial stop loss should always be filled, but let's tell that the (larry williams') 60-tonnes-lorry-event today :-)
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is natural gas so unbelievable cheap that i will enter this position immediately, even if oil is still damned cheap and €uro still weak compared to usd
lessons learned:


item--------------: orange juice
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 11/25/2008, 15:07
entry price-------: 77.3
initial stop loss--: NONE ... ;o( ...
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is orange juice so unbelievable cheap, let's take a bet on its recovery :o)
lessons learned:


item--------------: coffee
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 11/25/2008, 10:06
entry price-------: 114.3
initial stop loss--: NONE ... ;o( ...
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is orange juice so unbelievable cheap, let's take a bet on its recovery :o)
lessons learned:


item--------------: sugar
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 11/25/2008, 10:05
entry price-------: 11.74
initial stop loss--: NONE ... ;o( ...

new stop-loss----:
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is orange juice so unbelievable cheap, let's take a bet on its recovery :o)
lessons learned:


item--------------: toronto60
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 11/25/2008, 10:05
entry price-------: 522.4
initial stop loss--: NONE ... ;o( ...
new stop-loss----: 548.0 (i.e. 3% bellow currents price:)
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is this canadian stock index so unbelievable cheap and full of commodity companies, so let's take a bet on its recovery :o)
lessons learned:

Friday, November 28, 2008

extra x-mas salary => shopping fever ;-)

yesterday 'arrived' my salary on my account and to be honest a like novembers a lot! why? there is an 120% additional 'x-mas' component included => i've invested about 1/2 of that extra money & increased my share in few of my existing positions + bought also stocks of 3 new companies via my buy-and-hold investment account ...

------------------------------------
my x-mas shopping list :o)):
------------------------------------
11/27/2008
  • amerigo resources (Cu, Mo)
  • cardero res. (Fe - they've sold their major peruvian project to chinese investors recently for a multiple of company's market capitalization => damned hell, if they are not going to fire cash in the coming cold winter days in their canadian office and/or will not start to throw money out of a window it should be a super-duper investment for a looong, looooong time !!!)
  • endeavour silver (Ag)
  • ETF world water (H2O)
  • mag silver (Ag - new)
  • penn west energy trust (oil, gas - monthly dividends :o)
  • scorpio mining (Pb, Zn, Ag, Au)
  • silver standard res. (Ag - new)
  • western geopower (geothermal energy - new)
12/01/2008
let's move some positions from my wish list 2 my portfolio (new funds detected :). very bad timing today as i could buy pan american silver 16.5% cheaper & novagold 19.75% cheaper in the afternoon as the market crashed in the usa from the very beginning (DJIA -7.70%, silver -10.23%, s&p500 -8.93%). cold comfort: my limit order for rochester was filled @daily low! after its rescue through the recent joint-venture agreement should this investment return nice profits :-)
  • novagold (Au - speculative! just 4 hardcore gamblers or people who can afford to risk some money! this highly sympathetic company is currently highly bankruptcy-endangered :o()
  • pan american silver (Ag - new)
  • rochester res. (Ag)
12/02/2008
  • commerce resources (tantalum, niobium - new)
  • first majestic silver (Ag - folks, they sell silver coins through their homepage for end-consumer-physical-stuff-prices, not for the manipulated(?) comex-paper-prices! clever! maximum clever!)
  • fortuna silver (Ag)
  • hecla mining (Ag, Au since 1891 - new, they ask some rotative commodity related questions @ their website :-)
12/03/2008
  • western potash (potash - new)
12/04/2008
  • allianz (insurance - new, munich!)
  • archer daniels midland (agriculture - new)
  • ConocoPhillips (oil - new)
  • man (automotive - new, munich!)
  • miranda gold (Au, share price probably bellow company's cash reserves, but it wasn't the bottom anyway ;o()
  • siemens (infrastructure, electronics, my ex-employer :o] - new, munich!)
folks, do u know why are there so many munich-based companies on my shopping list today? well, if the economic crisis will expand next year + i will not have enough money for a warm meal, then i will go to the anual stockholder meetings of my 4 munich companies (bmw, siemens, allianz, man) + get some food + drinks 4 free! what a clever idea, isn't it? let's find some food 4 the remaining 361 days of the year also! ok, 1st let's buy linde + munich re + wacker next week ;-)
12/05/2008
  • energold drilling (mining equipment (rigs) - new)
12/08/2008
  • amerigo resources (Cu, Mo)
  • bralorne gold mines (Au)
  • cardero res. (Fe)
  • freegold ventures (Au)
  • minera andes (Ag, Au - new)
  • nanostart (nanotechnology - i do believe that nanotechnology is [besides to commodities & (renewable) energy] one of the favorite industries AFTER the 2008-financial-crisis! do u still believe in banks & car makers?)
  • newmont mining (Au - new)
  • orko silver (Ag)
  • penn west energy trust (oil, gas - monthly dividends :o)
  • scorpio mining (Pb, Zn, Ag, Au)
  • silver wheaton (Ag)
12/09/2008
  • paramount gold + silver (Au + Ag)
12/10/2008
  • globex mining (Au, Zn, Cu - exporer & producer & royalty company with a portfolio of about 70 projects which are optioned to numberless JV partners)
12/10/2008
  • novagold (Au - folks, folks, folks! i thought (dreamt?) at night that this highly sympathetic + currently highly bankruptcy-endangered company would release some news about its rescue. well, i've opened their website few times in the morning + hoped i could buy some super-duper cheap shares in germany before the canadian market opens. there were no news so i decided not to enhance my just few days ago increased risky position + didn't take shares for €0.37 => i'm such a stupid idiot! with the opening of canadian market shoot that stock within minutes 72.31% higher! just rumours or some insider buying? i've bought that stock few minutes later on a temporary price correction for €0.57 (which is 54% higher than the daily low in germany), so my position including commission quotes near the daily close in canada => todays increase +52,31% WITHOUT ANY company and/or industry related NEWS :o). well, the stock is still very cheap, do not forget that the all-time-high from 2007 was CAD 20.13 (!!). of course, it was before all that mumbo-jumbo with barrick gold (hostile take-over offer @ CAD 16) + teck cominco's project cancellation @galorne creek + environmental regulations + management mistakes + financing issues ...
  • rubicon minerals (Au - new, perfect timing here! i bought in germany before the canadian market opened bellow the fair canadian price => rob mcewen's rubicon soared 18.75% today)
12/15/2008
  • google (software - new, let's invest some money in that highly innovative company which also provides this blog for free and even allows me to earn few cents/bucks through included advertising links :o)
  • mexican silver mines (Ag - folks, this explorer doesn't explore any longer! why? well, the management believes that in current market state it is cheaper to buy complete projects from struggling competitors than to spend cash on exploration of own properties. hmmmm, an interesting strategy, isn't it?) ~ addendum 11/01/2010 ~ my 1st 20-bagger  ~ OMG, OMG, OMG! crazy mining business! bought @ €0.055 on december 15th, 2008 ~ 2days quote? €1.105 which is a (tax free!) profit of +1,909.09% ~ well, the company calls itself rio alto mining and is an ongoing peruvian gold producer these days :-) => OMG again! ~ uptrends are soooooooo delightful 
  • rio tinto (base metals - new, crazy dividend 9.87% (or just 6.31% because of an error on my broker's website yesterday?). nevertheless, i'm starting to love market corrections as they allow me to buy highly valuable companies soooo cheap!)
12/17/2008
  • acadian mining (Zn, Pb, Au)
  • impact silver (Ag)
  • linde (chemistry, machinery - new, munich!)
  • rio tinto (base metals)
  • source exploration (Ag - new, probably about 50% cheaper than the original 'management' price of it's founder and former sabina silver director abraham drost [~ CAD 0.12 ?]. sounds good? in today's crazy markets it still can become better: let's look @ company's website => the current market capitalization CAD 2.3 million is BELLOW the WORKING CAPITAL of 2.4 millions. will u buy all shares & then plunder its cash desk? any additional comments on current financial markets needed? no?
12/29/2008
  • acadian mining (Zn, Pb, Au)
  • petaquilla minerals (Au)
  • xstrata (commodities - new)
12/30/2008
  • cbh resources (Ag + base metals Zn, Pb, Cu)
  • crescent gold (Au in Au-stralia :)
01/02/2009
  • aquila res (Zn)
  • bhp billiton (base metals - new)
  • Burcon NutraScience (proteins, biotech - new)
  • coral gold (Au)
  • vg gold (Au)
01/05/2009
  • novagold (Au - the company is hopefully rescued as they've found an investor who invested $60 millions last week. that's great but they've diluted the existing shares by 30% today and through warrants agreement (if exercised) even to approx. 45% in the future => the poor 'old' shareholders! folks, a day or two later were also all warrants executed, thus got novagold 75 millions combined. let's hope the management will avoid any new financial mistakes and protect the new liquidity + meet all company's requirements, so that there will be never, never again a plunge of the share price by 40-50% as it was the case at least 3 times in the last 2 years)
  • scorpio mining (Pb, Zn, Ag, Au)
01/06/2009
  • southern silver (Ag)
01/07/2009
  • mag silver (Ag)
  • uc resources (Ag)
01/08/2009
  • continuum res. (Ag)
  • greenshift corp. (clean technologies 4 efficient use of natural resources)
  • sterling mining (Ag - since 1903, i bet they will survive the financial crisis & the share price will recover from its current bankruptcy-related level :o)
01/16/2009
  • u.s. silver (Ag)
01/19/2009
  • novagold (Au)
  • u.s. gold (Au)
01/20/2009
  • tara gold (Au)
==> game over ;o(( => all available money invested, even parts of my assets of last resort! i think my wife would kill me if i would take some more money :o)). does my invest-all-available-funds-strategy make any sense? i believe yes, it does. why? with the beginning of 2009 are in germany all financial gains tax related (tax flat rate 25%) => let's buy stocks in 2008 at these low, low, low prices + avoid that tax forever :o))
=> €12,824 = 10,651 new €uros + €2,173 from sale of my silver ETFs (~300 oz) invested
=> why did i sell my silver? a) i'm not sure the ETFs have enough physical silver for all its investors actually + b) i still have few coins c) in a worst case scenario like e.g. monetary reform would the governments probably abolish the private ownership of gold & silver again, so i would never get my precious metals out of any ETF vault when i needed them mostly + d) i'm sure that gold/silver stocks are currently massive undervalued so let's bet on their return to fair values => btw, i expect that the share prices of most of my recently purchased junior explorer companies will increase minimum 5- to 7-fold in the next 1-2 years and the big players like newmont + pan american silver + hecla will at least double in that period => if you looked at their charts and especially at the loss of 70% of their value in october/november [mostly without any rational reason] u will probably understand why i'm sooo bullish on them now :o)).
why sooo many sooo small positions? explorer stocks are risky enough (just look @ chart of any of them + especially @ novagold, so u will understand why i prefer to buy small packages (about 200 €uros each) in huge number of risky companies + pay €10 commission per trade than to build bigger portions of few risky companies (e.g. about €1,000 each as in 2007 or about €3,000-4,000 like in the years 2005-2006). btw, my biggest original purchase were 2,300 shares of rob mcewen's u.s. gold with more than 9,000 €uros and today are the remaining 1,800 shares worth just about €1,000 :o((. well, i shouldn't put all eggs in one basket! a big position in a particular stock/commodity doesn't protect my capital from losses :o)) ==> GOOD LUCK MY LOVELY BUY-AND-HOLD-THROUGH-ALL-THIS-FINANCIAL-MESS COMMODITY POSITIONS !!!
02/05/2009
btw, how does my portfolio looks like after that shopping orgy? well, check yourself! the userID is jaro and the password is secret ;-) ... folks, i.e. 'secret' !!!
(to learn more about jaro's intergalactic financial enterprizes (JIFE++) visit http://jarogruber.de/ and jump to the JIFE++ site :-). nevertheless, a short overview:
JIFE++ investment philosophy: gold + silver + energy (oil, gas, solar, wind, ...) + junior explorer stocks + commodities + ETFs + warrants + cash + ... even if the JIFE++ fund is free to invest in any financial instrument, it is not intended to invest in bonds, treasuries, CFDs, currencies, ...
JIFE++ risk category: HIGH. why? because there are also many junior explorer companies contained which do not generate any cash-flow yet, do not pay dividends, ... please consider also the high volatility in commodity sector.
JIFE++ upside potential: HIGH. why? see investment philosophy + risk category ;-))
JIFE++ contact: jaro.gruber@gmx.de
the bravest of the brave: JIFE++ investors)

folks, do u believe in santa claus? yes? me to! here we go ;-):
------------------------------------
=> my x-mas wish list :o)
------------------------------------
folks, my wife asked her subconscious mind today (=12/14/2008) which stocks to buy! her answers are marked bellow, but don't forget that stocks of highest desire i've already bought in the last few weeks :O). that are additional favorites and/or companies where i would like to increase my stakes :-)

  • acadian mining (Zn, Pb, Au) ... maybe
  • agnico-eagle mines (Au, platinum, rhodium - new) ... no
  • barrick gold (Au - new) ... no
  • bhp billiton (base metals - new) ... yes
  • bravo venture (Au)
  • Burcon NutraScience (proteins, biotech - new) ... YES
  • coral gold (Au) .... YES
  • ETF new energy (renewable energy)
  • ETF world water (H2O)
  • first majestic silver (Ag)
  • fortuna silver (Ag)
  • franco nevada (royalty, private equity - new) ... maybe
  • goldcorp (Au - new)
  • google (software) ... yes
  • impact silver (Ag)... yes
  • linde (chemistry) ... yes
  • MAG silver
  • mexican silver mines (Ag) ... yes
  • microsoft (software - new) ... ok, but novagold should perform better
  • münchner rück (insurance - new) ... no
  • novagold ... YES
  • pan american silver (Ag)
  • petaquilla minerals (Au)
  • rio tinto (base metals) ... yes
  • sabina silver (Ag, Zn)
  • source exploration (Ag) ... yes
  • tribune fpo (Au - new)
  • u.s. gold (Au)
  • vg gold (Au)
  • XSTRATA (commodities)


do u think i believe strongly that the commodities will rally again soon and so will commodity explorers, (junior) producers and the like, don't u? well, that's my hedge against the inflation monster!

what about the stock markets? i think they will rally also because of the HUGE amounts of paper/electronic money added into financial circle through the corrupt, incompetent and dishonest governments and their small dirty central banks all over the world :o((

=> welcome to the INFLATIONARY stocks and assets price rally !
=> welcome to the crack-up boom !!
=> welcome to state controls + regulations + swindling democracy all over the freaking world !!!
=> welcome to the kondratieff winter :o((

questions of the day: how long could that false boom last? when will we see not just a default of some 'unimportant' nations (iceland, hungary, ukraine, pakistan => 4 countries in the last few weeks!), but also a bankruptcy of some important western economy (US, UK, germany, italy, spain, france...)? when will that crappy paper money system fail? when will a major monetary reform arrive on planet earth again? do u have enough gold + silver ALREADY ???

=> as always: do not forget to protect yourself and your family against all that financial mess out there => buy as much gold, silver, oil, agriculture, energy... @ these low, low, low prices as u can afford and you will be very, very glad. or don't and u won't ;o))

=> this investing stuff is sooooo easy !!!

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

jaro, stop daytrading for a while !!!

1 x toronto60 (long)

2 x DJIA daytrading trials with 2 small losses (€ 22 combined) as the anticipated move up didn't come directly after my market entry but after some volatile ups and downs (just usual market noise, not any special events) after my stop loss limits were hit. well, that's trading ('cut your losses and let the profits run') + it is not bad at all :o) ... BUT it is too dangerous as there is not an appropriate money coverage on my account in order to keep all current positions :o((

-----------------------------------
a vicious dialogue:
-----------------------------------
my sanity: damned hell! jaro, stop daytrading for a while!
me: why?

my sanity: becuase otherwise you will demolish your account AGAIN !!!
me: well, ok, ... but ... for how long?

my sanity: well, till there is enough money on your trading account and you can 'afford' also few losses in a row without smashing your whole account through margin calls and liquidation of your remaining (commodity) positions AGAIN !!! will u?
me: well, yes, hmmm ... u are right, I WILL TRY IT !!! promised ;-)

commodities again :o)

my trades: orange juice, sugar, natural gas, coffee ... to do ...

folks, i'm sure that larry williams would lynch me or rewrite his book or both! why? because i've set no stops today :o(. well, the current levels are soooo low that with a stop limit,which would give the market some space to 'breathe' (about 10-15% from current price?) i would be both below the rational price levels and below the liquidation limit (approx. 200 €uros) of my micro account ...

the market and the margin call / liquidation 'service' of my broker should decide about my positions tomorrow :o)). btw, if i'm wrong and 'my' markets would fall further i would lose about the half of my €307.58 account. so let's take that risk today and try to 'find' some few hundreds €uros for my trading account to have some more realistic chance to succeed in the markets without wipe-outs through the smallest market move in the 'wrong' direction :o))

(sorry larry, but you can be sure i didn't forget your lessons and i will also not ignore your advice from your very last sentence: ALWAYS USE STOPS. let's say it is the '60 tonnes truck event' today, ok?)



btw, what about the relevance of your account size? watch interview with larry williams here ...

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

larry williams' book finished

folks, i've finished reading larry williams' SUPER-INTERESTING & FUNNY-TO-READ & HELPFUL 4 MY TRADING & REALLY-GREAT BOOK 'long-term secrets to short-term trading' today, i hope it will improve my trading results significantly :o))

well, the last thursday was really the market bottom in commodities + stocks (at least temporary :) ... well, the margin call 'arrived' and my positions were liquidated as my account was too small for thursday's intraday move-down :o(( ... except orange juice are all other positions (sugar, gas, coffee) much, much higher today :o(, ... my new funds didn't arrive today and i expect them tomorrow which is soooo late as i've missed the huuuuuge market recovery ... especially my no. 1 trading item (silver) which was stopped out @9.24 last week, reached 10.60 today ... but without me :o(((

well, luck is also a (significant) part of the game :o))

Saturday, November 22, 2008

margin call 1 day before the turn-over of commodity markets?

to do: ... my 'trades' .... hmmm, i.e. my broker's liquidation orders ... orange juice, gas, sugar, coffee ...

lessons learned: ... my account was too small for thursday's intraday move down :o((

Monday, November 17, 2008

G-20, natural gas, silver, ... commodity prices unbelievable low ...

G-20 instead of G-7 or G-8? the brasilian and chinese presidents besides g.w.bush @ a lunch table instead of his devoted servants from UK, poland, france, germany? hmmm ... :o)) ... did actually someone recognize that there is more needed when they want to 'fight' the 2008-financial-crisis than just rhetorical actions? or even that they need nations with some financial reserves instead of bankrupt western industrial morons and their small dirty central banks? will they (again!) print huge amounts of paper money or just borrow it from countries they still have any?

however, let's buy some commodities before the inflation will eat us alive :-))

item--------------: natural gas
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 11/16/2008, 23:21 that's early! it's monday, 00:21 in munich :-)
entry price-------: 6.39
initial stop-loss--: NONE, gas is soo cheap already, i don't believe it can fall much bellow $6, so let's try my luck without stop limit this time (btw, this position is small enough, it shouldn't hurt my portfolio too much if i'm wrong :o) ... must always be filled :-)
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is natural gas so unbelievable cheap that i will enter this position immediately, even when oil fell a little bit, €uro fell a little bit against usd, ...
lessons learned:


item__________: silver
units__________: 1
order type______: market
trade type______: long
entry date______: 11/17/2008, 01:50, it's late, i'm gonna sleep :o)
entry price_____: 9.64
initial stop-loss_: 9.24 ... ... ... ... must always be filled :-)
new stop-loss___:
exit date_______: 11/17/2008, 13:40
exit price_______: 9.24
profit (loss) in %_: (4.15%)
profit (loss)_____: (0.4 => $ 40)
reason why + strategy: silver is sooo cheap, the financial crisis so present, let's bet on rational human brains, ok?
lessons learned: it's sooo pity, the stop was hit, the daily low was 9.18, i would like to enter the market again at current price 9.30, but i can't afford to lose money too often on additional trials, my 'bottom fishing' limit order is @ 8.78, do u think it will be filled this week? or do u rather think we will never see silver sooo cheap in our lives?


item--------------: orange juice
units--------------: 1
order type--------: limit (buy)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 11/17/2008, 15:18
entry price-------: 82.5
initial stop-loss--: NONE, orange juice is soo cheap already, i don't believe it can fall much bellow 80 cents, so let's try my luck without stop limit this time (btw, this position is small enough, it shouldn't hurt my portfolio too much if i'm wrong :o) ... ... must always be filled :-)
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is orange juice so unbelievable cheap :-)
lessons learned:


WHY COMMODITIES? in my opinion are the most commodities (oil, natural gas, silver, wheat, coffee, cocoa, orange juice, zinc, lead, copper, platinum, palladium, ....) so unbelievable cheap that i would like to enter all these positions immediately + wait & struggle few more days till the bottom is over. IMHO it is really just question of few days/weeks! well, there is not enough capital coverage on my trading account for this aggressive kind of trading :o(. folks, it would maybe be aggressive, but not really dangerous as the current prices are very, very low! in the most commodity markets we are not far away from the 'naked' production costs of these commodities and some companies already reduced (or even stopped!) their production as it makes no sense to sell products at these low levels ...


btw, why does my trading platform NOT ACCEPT a stop limit order ('good till cancelled') for my coffee position? should i wait in front of my PC until the markets opens in the morning? what's wrong with the cmc-markets trading software or with their ordering in general?

Saturday, November 15, 2008

Thursday, November 13, 2008

DJIA trades

to do .... 11 DJIA trades ... i was positioned in the correct market direction (up) but at wrong time as the market moved 600 points higher about one hour after my trials (are the folks out there completely crazy? they've had the whole day to buy stocks much, much cheaper and they didn't!! and few minutes later they are willing to pay 600 bucks more for the same stuff !!) ... nevertheless, i could achieve a small profit today :-)

=> to do: to raise some money on my trading account to allow me to bet on some market moves without danger that a loss of 50-100 €uros would (again) cause the liquidation of my remaining (commodity) positions ... hmmmm, why not move some other money to that account? my wife would kill me if i would plunder our 'reserve' account again! beeing dead is IMHO worse than not have enough money for my ideas, isn't it?

++ bad luck with my limit order for silver: my limit was just 2 cents bellow the daily low 8.74 and therefore i've missed the huuuge price recovery (daily high 9.48), which would mean a theoretical profit of 8.47%. i think silver will continue to climb higher in the next few months and years, so let's try to find some other entry point for a new silver position. well, LUCK IS ALSO A PART OF THE GAME :o))

commodities long

to do ... post my trades: orange juice, coffee, natural gas ...

Friday, November 7, 2008

precious metals fair (munich, 07.-08. november)

gold, silver, oil, exploration, mining, much more people than the last few years (a new commodity trend or just the fear of the 2008 financial crisis?), true money instead of paper, old friends, faces behind companies from my investment portfolio ...
...
what about silver producers with strong cash flow + zero debt (?) + strong management + share price more than 80% bellow their highs from march this year? what about companies where you can buy shares cheaper than their managers when founding them? or what about explorer companies with market capitalization equal and sometimes even BELLOW their CASH RESERVES? => the chances of the decade or of our whole freaking life? damned hell, is there any account of my wife or the kids i could plunder before the end of the year :o)? why so quickly? well, the new taxation of stock-market profits from january, 1st is aready agreed by german government... what else? some very good presentations e.g. james turk (gold), dietmar siebholz (rare earths and the aggressive economy in china vs. the sleeping economy in europe), david morgan (silver), rolf nef (inflation, gold, SILVER options). last but not least: a verification of the following hypothesis by myself:

THE FINANCIAL MARKETS ARE INEFFICIENT !!!

why? there have been at least 5 to 6 coin dealers, many of them provided THE SAME investment coins, just the price was different. folks, you could buy 1 oz 'vienna philharmonic' silver coin for 11.50 €uros @ one dealer's desk, few steps away for 12.83 euros @ some other dealer :o)). folks, that is 11.57% more! => ok, let's try some conclusion: well, are the markets really inefficient or just the people soooo stupid? you are right, BOTH !!!
...
btw, which companies did i like most? there were many of them (current market prices offer IMHO huuuuge profit opportunities for people who still have some money to invest :o): scorpio mining, miranda gold, cardero resources, globex minig, paramount gold + silver, source exploration, bravo venture, buffalo gold, ...
...
scorpio? mining? here we go :o))

Thursday, November 6, 2008

black thursday

to do ... document trades: sugar, coffee, 2 x gas, 11x DJIA, tecdax, ...

lessons learned: in nowadays huuuuge-volatility markets i have to place much, much, much tighter trailing stops on winning positions (sugar, coffee, natural gas) as otherwise are the significant parts of theoretical profits wiped out again :o((
the commodity markets are not 'ready' for up-trends yet! even coffee and natural gas, which usually have strong seasonal up-trends in the winter months, ran just 2-3 days significantly up, today were all gains wiped out again :o(( ...

some more words about today = the next panic day:
sugar -6.16%
coffee -4.90%
S&P500 -5.03%
DJIA -4.85% (all 30 stocks negative! best = coca-cola -0.54%, ... ,
alcoa -13,05%
general motors -13.67% = worst)
tecdax -8.63%
nikkei -6.53%
deutsche bank -12.82%
ThyssenKrupp -12.55%
MAN -12.22%
crude oil brent -9.48%
...
=> YES, we have a selling climax just now :-((
...

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

DAY-TRADING DOESN'T FIT MY PERSONALITY ;o((

yes folks, it is sad for me and for my visions & dreams also ... and yes, i had already some doubts about that earlier (see my older day-trading considerations :o), but now i'm sure:


DAY-TRADING DOESN'T FIT MY PERSONALITY ;o((

well, it is the result from my trading experience this week! let me explain that: i took 1 week off to try out how would i succeed in the markets as a day-trader! all surrounding conditions were perfect:

  • i moved some money to my CFD account a week earlier
  • my wife and my youngest daughter are on holidays in poland @ their relatives, so there is no one who could deflect my concentration or take any negative influence on me or on my trading
  • i 'm not tired in front of my screen (as usually :) as i do not have to work 8-10 hours a day in my office and i also sleep enough, because i can read all the business-related data on the internet during the day
  • i have a great mental balance
  • i can often go to gym + swimming (my wife left me her fitness-center-card :) and i also do not have many routine duties, if any :o)
  • additionaly i even get some help and support from my eldest daughter (i'm not the born cook or housekeeper :-) and i also have some nice conversations with her after she returns from university => so i'm even not alone all the day and therefore i cannot lose reality-relationship, which is, IMHO, important.
  • etc.

looks perfect, isn't it? even the markets played to my day-trading favor and 'produced' huuuuge volatility to give me a chance to profit from the big daily moves :o). and what is the result?

on monday i bought some soooo cheap commodities (silver, orange juice, sugar, natural gas, coffee) + made 3 DJIA trades from the tick-chart-window. i've lost 45 €uros as the DJIA didn't like my direction. there was also no big move on that day, so i got wiped-out by usual market 'noise' after the price hit my stop orders. mental result: i was somehow dissapointed as i didn't like that day cycle, but on the other hand, i didn't make any (big) trading mistakes, so i accepted it.

yesterday night was barack hussein obama elected as new u.s. president, so there were big market movements very likely today. i have expected a market rally as obama provides IMHO more hope for peace and friendly developments in the world as his competitor mccain does. japan liked that election outcome and rallied 4.42%, europe didn't. dax -2%, tecdax -4.66% (my limit order near the daily lows was filled, which i liked a lot, because i didn't buy greedy a day earlier after a huge rally near the daily highs and decided to stay out of the market or get that index for a more reasonable price). RING, RING, RING! the bell rings and the u.s. stock-exchanges open its 'doors' => let's watch, decide and trade if the DJIA should provide some trading opportunities :o)).

i made 5 DJIA trades: 4 long; 1 short; 4 small losers; 1 small winner; 1 bad luck as my broker's software (internet connection?) didn't accept a change-order to protect my short-term profit on that trade (i would win $1 instead of losing $14, that means there would not be any significant difference in my P/L statistics anyway :o); as i've expected the market went in that time actually some 80 points higher, but the volatility was too big and my long positions were stopped-out before the price moved significantly higher + before i could increase my trailing-stop orders. btw, i thought that after a short decision phase would the market move much more dynamically into one direction, but it didn't [... the big move came about 2 hours later and it was down]. well, i've lost about €55 and increased my day-trading balance sheet for this week to about 100 €uros (approx. $130). it is not much (and still cheaper than a holiday abroad :-), but consider that i've moved approx. 8 x 9,500 = $ 76,000 on the markets, which would be a lot of money @ an orthodox trading account, isn't it? what about my position trades with commodities + toronto60 index + tecdax index? as for now, they are running pretty well and could win more than my day-trading experiments lost => let's stay a position trader :o)

[... added on thursday 11/06/2008: i've made 11 DJIA trades and moved about 11 x 9,100 = $100,100 on the markets, but the losses were again slightly higher than the wins. IMHO were my wins and losses more the question of luck than of anything else... ]

conclusion: let's stay a position trader + let's keep my office job + let's analyze the markets on the evenings & on the weekends + let's do some fundamental analysis + let's profit from the long-term developments & price movements (instead of tick-chart losses :-)

btw, does it mean that i will never again try any day-trades? no. if sometimes my account size could afford a loss of maybe €50 risk capital AND i should 'accidentally' see some promissing opportunity AND i will be in proper trading mood AND ... AND ... => THEN i could imagine to make a bet and place one order or two in order to pick-up some profits, BUT i DO NOT PLAN to sit down in front of my PC for the sake of day-trading anymore :o)

barack hussein obama

poll: is it too late for improvement of the world order? YES/NO ?
i'm not sure, i hope not, but i'm realy not sure... why? well, in the last few months we saw just huuuuge bailouts + socialisation of losses + government interventions and regulations + an unbelievable increase in money supply all over the world instead of free markets. is there any hope for improvement? yes! yesterday was barack hussein obama elected as the new u.s. president. [btw, who are the strong powers behind him? the kennedy-clan + george soros + zbigniew brzezinski + ??? ok, but is it good or bad for the world? the time will show it :o)]. i hope he will correct few of bush's mistakes and maybe even end the wars on iraq, afghanistan, democracy, terror, ... and reduce budget deficits ... and so on ... that could help a little! but he has to speed up a lot before the winter comes, the kondratieff winter :o((
=> GOOD LUCK BARACK!

to do: my trades ... tecdax, toronto60, 5 x DJIA, ...