Tuesday, September 30, 2008

what a bombastic (or just lucky?) market forecast yesterday :o)

well, this time (= yesterday + today) was my opinion about the market behaviour correct :o). i thought that in the morning there will be some additional selling, but the european stocks started directly their run upstairs. but why in the hell fell silver -9%? thank goodness, i had a stop-loss-limit at least for one half of my silver positions, so i didn't take the whole punch today! gold -4%, platinum -7%, led -6%, zinc -4%, ....??? is the whole financial crisis which was sooooo overwhelming yesterday forgotten? are there no problems or risks anymore? is the us economy soooooo healthy that the usd 'should' move huge 2% against the eur in just 1 day? well, i have to repeat myself, but it is still as true as yesterday: in the short run are the fundamentals meaningless ;((

my general market commentary on yesterday's CRASH (black monday:) see here: http://jarogruber.blogspot.com/2008/09/crazy-monday.html, bellow are my trades for the last 2 days:


item--------------: tecdax30
units--------------: 1
order type--------: limit
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 09/29/2008, 12:58
entry price-------: 699
initial stop-loss--:
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit / loss in %-:
profit / loss------:
reason why + strategy: well, i had an long time limit order in the market. i didn't believe anymore that it could be filled as the german technology stocks index quotet already @ 750 euros. later in the evening fell the index price to unbelievable € 640, a daily loss of more than 7% (it's nothing compared to nasdaq100's -10%, isn't it?)


item--------------: silver >> position closed
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market buy / limit sell
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 09/29/2008, 14:50
entry price-------: 13.04
initial stop-loss--: 12.60
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 09/30/2008, 13:38
exit price---------: 12.60
profit / loss in %-: -3.37%
profit / loss------: 0.44 => -44 usd
reason why + strategy: i've decided to buy silver @13.04 after i could recognize that the sell-off in gold + silver (probably) ended as there was a strong price increase. the price went up to 13.80 and i didn't sell because of strong fundamentals of the whole precious metals market in the epicentre of HUUUUUGE financial crisis as the u.s. congress denied the proposed bailout fund with a volume of $700 billion ....
lessons learned: even if the fundamentals are completely on my side, a stop-loss-limit in the market had saved my trading capital (silver fell furher to 11.75, a loss of 9% in 1 day. it's perverse, isn't it?)


item--------------: toronto60
units--------------: 1
order type--------: limit
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 09/29/2008, 15:15
entry price-------: 699.9
initial stop-loss--:
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit / loss in %-:
profit / loss------:
reason why + strategy: well, i had an long time limit order in the market. i didn't believe anymore that it could be filled as the canadian stocks index quotet already @ 765 CAD two days before. later in the evening fell the index price to unbelievable 666 CAD.


item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #1
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / stop (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 09/29/2008, 20:30
entry price-------: 10.433
initial stop-loss--: ?
new stop-loss----: 10.555
exit date---------: 09/29/2008, 20:47:00
exit price---------: 10.555
profit / loss in %-: 1.17%
profit / loss-------: $ 122
reason why + strategy: trying to trade the late recovery of DJIA which is probably caused by massive buying through the plunge protection team (PPT). well, i was trying to pick-up some bigger movements in DJIA and hoped for one great hit :o)
lessons learned: nice trade; a clever AND FAST placement of initial stop-loss-limit as the DJIA moved so fast in one direction or another; later i should probably move the new stop limit some 25-35 points higher as the index fell from its temporary high about 50 points till it hit my stop order; ... but i'm satisfied with the trade and this experience


item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #2
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / stop (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 09/29/2008, 20:35
entry price-------: 10.470
initial stop-loss--: 10.451
new stop-loss----: 10.540
exit date---------: 09/29/2008, 20:47:33
exit price---------: 10.540
profit / loss in %-: 0.67 %
profit / loss-------: $ 70
reason why + strategy: trying to trade the late recovery of DJIA which is probably caused by massive buying through the plunge protection team (PPT). well, i was trying to pick-up some bigger movements in DJIA and hoped for one great hit :o)
lessons learned: nice trade; a clever AND FAST placement of initial stop-loss-limit as the DJIA moved so fast in one direction or another; later i should probably move the new stop limit some 25-35 points higher as the index fell from its temporary high about 65 points till it hit my stop order; ... but i'm satisfied with the trade and this experience


item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #3
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / stop (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 09/29/2008, 20:48
entry price-------: 10.525
initial stop-loss--:
new stop-loss----: 10.526
exit date---------: 09/29/2008, 20:50
exit price---------: 10.526
profit / loss in %-: 0.0095 %
profit / loss-------: $ 1 (what a gain, isn't?)
reason why + strategy: trying to trade the late recovery of DJIA which is probably caused by massive buying through the plunge protection team (PPT). well, i was trying to pick-up some bigger movements in DJIA and hoped for one great hit :o)
lessons learned: nice trade; a clever AND FAST placement of initial stop-loss-limit; no great move this time; i'm satisfied with the trade and this experience


item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #4
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / stop (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 09/29/2008, 20:54
entry price-------: 10.528
initial stop-loss--:
new stop-loss----: 10.548
exit date---------: 09/29/2008, 20:56
exit price---------: 10.548
profit / loss in %-: 0.19%
profit / loss-------: $ 20
reason why + strategy: trying to trade the late recovery of DJIA which is probably caused by massive buying through the plunge protection team (PPT). well, i was trying to pick-up some bigger movements in DJIA and hoped for one great hit :o)
lessons learned: nice trade; a clever AND FAST placement of initial stop-loss-limit; no great move this time; i'm satisfied with the trade and this experience


item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #5
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / stop (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 09/29/2008, 20:58
entry price-------: 10.553
initial stop-loss--: 10.533
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 09/29/2008, 21:01:10
exit price---------: 10.533
profit (loss) in %-: (0.19%)
profit (loss)-------: ($20)
reason why + strategy: trying to trade the late recovery of DJIA which is probably caused by massive buying through the plunge protection team (PPT). well, i was trying to pick-up some bigger movements in DJIA and hoped for one great hit :o)
lessons learned: nice trade; a clever AND FAST placement of initial stop-loss-limit; no great move this time; i'm satisfied with the trade and this experience even if that was a losing trade


item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #6
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (sell) / MARKET (buying of 2 contracts and thus switching my position to long)
trade type--------: short
entry date--------: 09/29/2008, 21:01:48
entry price-------: 10.517
initial stop-loss--:
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 09/29/2008, 21:02:03
exit price---------: 10.534
profit (loss) in %-: (0.16%)
profit (loss)-------: ($17)
reason why + strategy: i was trying to pick-up some bigger movements in DJIA and hoped for one great hit :o)
lessons learned: a bad trade; i was TOO SLOW to place an initial stop-loss-limit; than i was TOO SLOW TO CLOSE a losing position. than i was TOO UNPREPARED to switch it immediately and lost some of my former profits because of these mantioned handling difficulties ... i'm satisfied with the trade because of the experience made even if that was a losing trade


item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #7
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / stop (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 09/29/2008, 21:02:03
entry price-------: 10.534
initial stop-loss--: 10.494
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 09/29/2008, 21:03:37
exit price---------: 10.494
profit (loss) in %-: (0.38%)
profit (loss)-------: ($40)
reason why + strategy: well, i was trying to pick-up some bigger movements in DJIA and hoped for one great hit :o)
lessons learned: a bad trade; i was probably TOO HYPNOTIZED TO THINK CLEARLY ENOUGH, but at least i could place a stop-loss-limit fast enough to cut my losses. probably i should better wait for a really good trading opportunity instead of jumping into the market like a crazy gambler....


item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #8
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (sell) / stop (buy)
trade type--------: short
entry date--------: 09/29/2008, 21:05
entry price-------: 10.454
initial stop-loss--: ?
new stop-loss----: 10.453
exit date---------: 09/29/2008, 21:12
exit price---------: 10.453
profit / loss in %-:
profit / loss-------: $ 1
reason why + strategy: i was trying to pick-up some bigger movements in DJIA and hoped for one great hit :o)
lessons learned: nice trade; a clever AND FAST placement of initial stop-loss-limit; no great move this time; i'm satisfied with the trade and this experience and reward of 1 usd :o)


item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #9
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / MARKET (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 09/29/2008, 21:13:08
entry price-------: 10.461
initial stop-loss--:
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 09/29/2008, 21:14:51
exit price---------: 10.442
profit (loss) in %-: (0.18%)
profit (loss)-------: ($19)
reason why + strategy: well, i was trying to pick-up some bigger movements in DJIA and hoped for one great hit :o)
lessons learned: a bad trade; i was probably TOO HYPNOTIZED TO THINK CLEARLY ENOUGH, i even COULDN'T PLACE a stop-loss-limit fast enough to cut my losses. probably i should better quit my trading earlier OR wait for a really good trading opportunity instead of jumping into the market like a crazy gambler OR both !!!


-----------------
next day, 09/30/2008, note the number of trades :o)
-----------------

item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #1 (= just one :)
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (sell) / MARKET (buy)
trade type--------: short
entry date--------: 09/29/2008, 20:16:20
entry price-------: 10.712
initial stop-loss--: none ;-(
new stop-loss----: none ;-(
exit date---------: 09/29/2008, 20:16:56
exit price---------: 10.723
profit (loss) in %-: (0.10%)
profit (loss)-------: ($11)
reason why + strategy: well, i was trying to pick-up some bigger movements in DJIA and hoped for one great hit :o)
lessons learned: a good learning example! well, i was TOO SLOW to place an initial stop-loss-limit; no great move this time; at least i could CLOSE a losing position pretty fast and didn't continue trading as i didn't expect any big movements as the DJIA moved up pretty continuously 4.68% today, so i didn't expect any overreaction to the end of the trading session or any big profit-taking sell orders ... folks, what do you think: is that behavior already a result of my 'lessons learned' from yesterday's DJIA trades or just a coincidence of destiny ;-))
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