Friday, March 19, 2010

larry williams + mumbo jumbo + jim rogers + van tharp + jack schwager's market wizards :-)

folks, IMHO is larry williams both, a technically based trader who uses the daily bar charts to identify his entry + exit points and a person, who calls the most chart patterns and the most technical indicators mumbo jumbo or the like ... i hope it helps a lot , larry is a super duper commodity + futures trader, you know?

bruce kovner - folks, i do actually read my InformedPoints hunt prize - jack schwager's market wizards and look: larry williams is not the only top trader who considers technical analysis mumbo jumbo :-). bruce kovner also is! "technical analysis, i think, has a great deal that is right and a great deal that is mumbo jumbo."

well, why mumbo jumbo? ... "technical analysis tracks the past; it does not predict the future" ... he urges the readers 2 "use their own intelligence 2 draw conclusions about what the past activity of some traders may say about the future activity of other traders."

ok, and why is technical analysis also right? "technical analysis reflects the vote of the entire marketplace and, therefore, does pick up unusual behavior."

btw, 'schwager' means brother-in-law in german aaaaaand i've missed george soros in schwager's book ;o)

jim rogers - hell, is there any top trader who believes in technical analysis out there? do u know what did jim rogers answer 2 the question what is his opinion about chart reading? "i haven't met a rich technician. excluding, of course, technicians who sell their technical services and make a lot of money."

well, he still uses charts himself .... "yes, i look them every week. i use them for knowledge, to see what is going on. i learn a lot about what is going on in the world by looking charts. ... i look at charts to see what HAS HAPPENED."



next reason why i like blogging so much discovered! it is sooooo easy 2 enhance & improve former posts and 2 make them more useful 4 my dear readers & myself!

additional trading heroes:

  • michael marcus - for me a disappointing story, but he traded in highly inflationary markets of the mid 70ties, so there could be a lesson learned as IMO we are in the inflationary scenario (inflationary decade?!?) again 
  • richard dennis - trend follower, turtles teacher, ... "government will try 2 avoid the recesion by stimulating the economy, a tactic which essentially doesn't work." ... "keynesian economics is just an excuse 4 easy money, overspending, and overconsuming. we ought to just admit that the government is a debt junkie ... " (1988)
  • paul tudor jones - sooooo philosophic, sooooo great! interesting views abt general economy & reagan & society & market fundamentals & inter-market correlations & much much much much much more 
  • gary bielfeldt - the decent small town bond trader who do not believes on diversification and suggests focusing on 1 field
  • ed seykota - trend trend trend following; automated trading systems; MIT; no chart screens on the office desk as he gets his market data after the close each day; good traders trade. good letter writers write letters; inflation? inflation is part of the way societies sweep away the old order. all currencies eventually get debased - like it or not; psychology is the driver and analysis is the road map; everybody gets what they want out of the market.
  • larry hite - risk risk risk control; trend following; markets are inefficient (because people never change); blue chips (~ the most expensive chips in monte carlo); imagine the worst possible outcome => adjust your risk => huge freedom (of mind?) => 



    1. never risk more than 1% on single trade
    2. diversification (long term / short term trades, different markets)
    3. always follow your methods (you can't know what will your reward be, but you can always know your risk)
    4. stop trading if the volatility is too high
    what else?



    1. never against the trend
    2. always get the big picture
    3. two great indicators:
      a) market doesn't respond to important news (e.g. gold doesn't go up on war news => sell gold)
      b) market makes historic highs => s.th. has changed 
    4. two basic rules:
      a) if u dont bet u cant win
      b) if u lose all your chips, u cant bet 
  • michael steinhardt - stock trader/investor, contrarian who sticks 2 his positions as long as he thinks the fundamentals 4 his decision didn't change, takes big positions if he thinks he is right (when he feels the most factors for his fundamental assessment are already fullfilled and thus he doesn't wait for everything beeing fine for an entry as then is usually too late for a trade/investment ... ~ i didn't like that interview that much ...
  • william o'neil - art of stock picking; buy just the strongest stocks before they take off (own CANSLIM method based on growth in earnings, EPS, new situation like new product/CEO/etc., volume, ...); 18 common investor's mistakes; buy stocks which reached new highs; dont care too much abt dividends/ EPS / P/E / / etc.; quality has its price ~ quality stocks as well; look for approx 20% institutional ownership (=support) 4 your stocks; ALWAYS limit losses by 7%; dont buy penny stocks; ignore news / tips / stock analysts / rumours; market paradox: cheap stocks often tend 2 go lower and expensive stocks often tend 2 go higher; ...
  • david ryan - started as o'neil's lap dog, had great individual success in one trading contest in 3 consecutive years (gains above 100% p.a.), till now nothing new compared to the o'neil interview ...
  • marty schwartz - very successful stock trader; very hard working (too hard for my taste ~ he even didnt stop working during the interview ~ btw, i'm rather a supporter of the harmonic taoist philosophy like 'do what u are doing' and the like :-); marine officer; stops losses fast; concentrates on defense; he dont tries bottom fishing (too often), very interesting written as on the way 2 work i have missed 2 go out of the underground train by two (!!) stops and had to wait 4 the next train in the opposite direction ...
  • mark weinstein - market should be totally free of restrictions; quick profits within hours or even minutes; if his gut feel of market conditions is not right, he dont trade; trading like a sparrow eats; looks 4 a market that is losing momentum and then goes the other way; dont trades until an opportunity presents itself; limit losses quickly; fears a larger loss and hopes for a larger profit;
  • brian gelber - broker & trader; suggests 2 do what suits the individual personality instead of doing everything and beein exhausted too early (in lifetime perspective); trading is huuuge stress; most traders who fail have large egos and cant admit that they are wrong; never adds 2 a loser position; suggests not 2 overtrade and not 2 beg 4 tips;
  • tom baldwin - you are never really confident in this business, because you can always be wiped out pretty quckly; patience is an important traint many people dont have :-)
  • tony saliba - options strategies (e.g. 'butterfly' with long/short positions in the same market in different contract months ...); high correlation between the action on friday and on the next monday morning; alwAYS RESPECT THE MARKETPLACE; NEVER TAKE ANYTHING FOR GRANTED; think in 'what-if' strategies ~ what if the opposite of your scenario happens? trading is an addiction; put part of your money in other investments ~ real estate, stores, exchange seats, annuity, ...
  • van k. tharp - hmmmm: trader? writer? NLPer? psychologist? coach? all of that! 
    soooo psychlogical, soooo philosophical! .... most people approach trading 2 make a lot of money, and that is one of the primary reasons they lose. because money is so important, they have trouble taking losses and letting profits run ...
    top traders believe:


    • money is NOT important
    • it is OK to lose in the markets
    • trading is a game
    • mental rehearsal is important 4 success
    • they've won the game before they start

poll! we were just talking abt:
a) the psychology of trading
b) the food after van's presentation
c) both
d) none of that 
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