Saturday, September 26, 2009

#jarobuys cobalt + gold (formation metals + petaquilla minerals)

folks, folks, folks .... i'm such a crazy, stock exchange & shopping addicted alien!

well, i've been yesterday @ a resource conference in the best hotel bayerischer hof in munich, where 5 explorer companies + 1 trading company + the local stock exchange presented their stories to investors + general public + ... few of the companies and many of the guests have there been last year also and i could remember few of them ... i think it's nice to see some of the 'old' faces again, isn't it?

do u think there was much volume in their stocks today morning on the german stock exchanges? not reallly, few of them didn't trade at all! well, the earthlings are much more interested in free lunch (oooops, that was dinner time) + free beer + free coffee than to do some thinking for themselves ... not me! well, i just thought if that canadian companies have soooooo much money they could afford 2 invite the folks to the best place in town, they will prolly have some potential to upgrade their business anyway :). pls DO NOT TELL ME that the only reason they have 2 advertise like that is 'cos their projects are so sh*ty and they need sooooooooo much money 2 bring them into production and so on and on and on and on ...

i didn't know 2 of these 5 companies and i liked the story of the near-term cobalt producer formation capital corp. ... in winter 2009 renamed to formation metals (mines & major properties located in idaho / usa). well, even if i have invested last big portion of my idle money in july and early august as i've waited 4 the gold rally 2 come in august and was not at all dissapointed when it came in september instead, so i've opened just a small initial position in formation capital today. let's watch the company developments and maybe there will be a point in the future where i will have both, money 2 invest and faith in their operations 2 increase my stake . you know what? 3 of my portfolio companies sterling, sns, minco still fight in various legal issues on the sunshine silver mine / idaho. watch out, formation posses the Sunshine Precious Metals Refinery. crazy, isn't it?

what's the price of cobalt? i've no clue about that as there are mainly long term contracts between producers & consumers out there, BUT NEXT SPRING should cobalt become traded @ LME !!! it should bring much more public attention to that $6 billion market, isn't it?

what is cobalt used for? if i remember that correctly, it's for batteries, batteries and batteries, i think . hell, that formation guy was right! he told that todays so famous lithium-ion batteries contain more cobalt (approx. 60%) than anything else! wikipedia also confirms that from investment perspective so important fact "... Lithium cobalt oxide (LiCoO2) is widely used in Lithium ion battery electrodes.[23] Nickel-cadmium (NiCd) and nickel metal hydride (NiMH) batteries also contain significant amounts of cobalt. ... " still wanna know more about cobalt? ok, pls move 2 wikipedia 2 learn.

what about gold? few days ago i've also increased my stake in panama's emerging gold producer petaquilla minerals (see comment #6), which is one of very few companies in my portfolio they didn't decrease sharply as the gold price corrected a little this week, which draw down my struggling portfolio from its recently reached break-even-point by approx. -5%

hmmmm, i just thought if i'm really such an easy to impact dreamer or the like, so i just checked my results achieved with stocks of this kind of tip / information. folks, it is really unbelievable, but for some strange reason or an other that companies belong 2 my best performers! well, they didn't go up straight away after i've bought them and they've also been hit sooooo hard in that damned crashy october 2008 (pls, pls, pls, never come back!), but i've watched their developments and in few of them even increased my stakes between december 2008 and february 2009 aaaaaand => HERE WE GO:
  • western potash +99,29%
  • commerce resources +206,07% ... ohhh, in yesterday's so weak stock market additional +11,67%. damn, what's going up out there :o)
  • zimtu capital +161,94%
  • western geopower +43,88%
  • megastar development +41,67%
  • adamus res. +45,12%
  • dundee precious metals +57,39%
  • formation capital -5,13%
  • burcon nutrascience +5,15%
yep, i see, i should just buy companies @ presentations, isn't it?
in case u ask yourself why do i buy mostly small unknown companies and not the soooo successful blue chips, here is the answer: i've worked for siemens + bmw for sooooo many years and i've recognized there is 1 thing huge companies have in common: they waste soooo much of owners' (shareholders') money in such a stupid way that i think there is no need to give them my money on top. chakkkka!
addendum, november 18, 2009:
big, big, big fraud @ petaquilla minerals !!!
folks, now i know why this sh*ty GOLD PRODUCER stock fell the last few months like a stone from heaven even facing these so enjoyable record gold prices ...
the company news were positive, i asked even their PR team if the management is fire selling the stock 'caus there was no reason visible from outside the company and got just the message that some director will respond soon, what he of course never did ...
you know what? today came the news that the company GOT THE NEEDED APPROVAL by some panama's (panamanean?) authority 2 operate the gold mine .... hell, that means the directors knew it doesn't look nice for the company, dropped the stock ... the price lost approx 50% in few days ... thx goodness and sooooooo fine 4 my portfolio 2day becomed the opposite option true and the mine approval is here. the stock is +91.11% now ... and +111.11% as i've finished that blog post ... and 2day's high was +126.67% ... and the closing quote is +117.78%(!!!).
well, my recently bought position is slightly positive again, the managers are buying their stock back like crazy (just my guess, they didn't tell me anything as i wrote above, but you know, just look @ the recent volume and compare it to the average ... )
ps: the symbol is PTQ (@ TSX in toronto)
addendum, november 20, 2009
folks, i've got a call from petaquilla's PR guy luigi 2day ... what do u think was the message? of course, petaquilla lives in the best of all worlds ... now, where the mine permit is there + production rising + cash-flow flowing + plans 4 the future developing ...
what abt my question concerning the huge sell-off even if the gold reached one all-time-high after the next? .... hmmmm, you know ... there was no information to the shareholders for a long period of time (wanna move 2 company's homepage & check it?) .... you know ... one leaving manager was selling his stock (was he really? whould u sell a stock when the company has just started earning money? me not! even if i was an exploration expert moving 2 next opportunity i would hold all my shares + enjoy the ongoing gold production + cash-flow + dividends etc. )
well, the tape will tell us the truth soon!
on the other side, it was a very pleasant discusion and hopefully will that petaquilla-speculation work out well 4 me btw, in the past i've got already optimistic + very positive emails from CEOs and/or public relations folks from companies which went bankrupt just weeks later (web2corp) or have fallen 2 abt zero like bernanke's short term interest rates (greenshift, current quote is $0.0008 ... it is not a typo!)
addendum, november 30, 2009:
folks, luigi was right, right, right! petaquilla is +18.37% today, my latest purchase (approx 2 months ago) is +58,39% already and my overall investment needs just a small increase of approx 9% to reach the break-even point (=> tomorrow?). well the bad feeling abt the recent strange developments (see above) will stay much longer :-(
some other commodity highlights from my portfolio 2day?
  • Aquila Resources +54.17%
  • Genco Resources +21.65%
  • Magma Energy +11.11%
  • Rochester Resources -11.36%
  • Source Exploration +15.91%
  • Sterling Mining -10.00%
let's read the company news, if any, from aquila + genco + sterling, maybe there is some major change in company fundamentals :o)
explorer stocks are soooo risky and sometimes sooooo exciting! there is no need for options/warrants/etc. LOL
... 5 minutes later ... aquila? drill results! ... Aquila Resources and HudBay Minerals Back Forty Drilling Intersects 20.2 Meters of 11.5 Grams Per Tonne Gold and 119.7 Grams Per Tonne Silver8:31 AM ET, November 30, 2009...
folks, just 2 let you know how crashy the stupid october 2008 crash in the explorer business really was, i'm gonna tell u how is my overall aquila position performing till now: hell, even if i've more than doubled my initial number of shares in january 2009 near the all-time-low quote, i'm still -52,10% down, down, down .... hmmmm, do you think, they will release some next drill results like e.g. (just my guess) 40.4 Meters of 23 Grams Per Tonne Gold sooooooooon? will they?
go, commodities, go!

addendum, december 2, 2009
folks, i'm not going 2 bore u every day with the latest petaquilla quote (promised!), but you know what?
yesterday was my break-even-point for the complete petaquilla investment, 2day is petaquilla +33.33%. crazy, isn't it? just think abt bondholders! they often need years 2 reach a 30% profit and then they have 2 pay taxes on that gain ... hell, that's boring! well, the volume was 5 times higher than the average, of course was there no company news release or anything else what would fundamentally legitimate that increase ... but who cares if the things are working fine?
well, now u know why i do not trade these kind of stocks or evaluate their charts or set stop limits :=). explorer stocks are like lottery, you never know how high/deep they will go if folks becomes fearful/greedy! btw, u still remember vg gold's +127% move up on a day when rob mcewen announced his investment in it? btw, the stock is much higher now ...
heaven, this investment stuff is soooooo easy!

Saturday, September 19, 2009

#jarobuys silver, acadian mining, kws saat, private owned, bravo venture

folks, after our cheaper than expected vacation there is still some money left into my pockets => let's go shopping :-)

  • silver long $17.33 (incl. spread, no commissions) - i thought the silver price will bounce back up 2 days ago, it didn't ... therefore i expect my stop loss limit @ 16.93 will become active soon if it already didn't yesterday evening as i can't open my trading platform just now (that would be a loss of $40 per 1 CFD contract) ... #jarosells silver @ $16.93, my position got wiped out. i'm not sure if the silver future actually fell bellow $16.95 on friday as my favorite commodity-price-website shows the daily low $16.99 instead. i will check that later, but just in case when silver will not fell bellow my limit on monday in some more regular way ... anyway, my OTC broker is also the market maker in that CFD trading platform and thus 'allowed' to make its own quotes ...
  • acadian mining €0.054 (without commissions) - one of very few precious metals explorers/producers where the share price didn't advance 20-50% in the last month in the recent bull market upswing ... i think the share price of acadian mining could start to reflect that soooo positive news flow soon, what's your opinion?
  • bravo venture €0.336 (without commissions) - like acadian, bravo also didn't advance much in the last 4 weeks, yesterday it even fell bellow my purchase level. let's watch how will that position develop in the next months/years :-)
  • kws saat €114.6 (without commissions) - well, i had no extra 200 €uros few months ago 2 buy 2 shares when that big german agricultural (seeds) producer (watch out, monsanto!) quoted bellow €100. even with the commission of €10 my avarage price would stay bellow 100 €uros. on wednesday i've bought 3 shares and moved that position from my watchlist into my portfolio finally! i liked the owner structure of that traditional stock (est. 1856) as there are still 2 families who own a major part of the company (56%) and i'm sure that unlike bonus-oriented-managers of common stock companies the owners wish that the company will provide profits also for their next generations. let's take part in that! btw, a buddy of mine is a remote relative of the actual owners, that's the reason i know the company :-). a small bonus 4 mathematicians among us: folks, what do u think, at what price would my profit on 3 a little bit more expensive purchased shares overweight the profit of 2 cheaper purchased shares? in the 1st step (to make that exercise easier) pls do not consider the dividend of €1.70 per share in your calculations, but 2 get the whole 'picture' u should do it in the 2nd step, will u? hmmmmmm, did warren buffett say that the biggest part of the profit in stock investing is in the cheap purchase price? or was it someone else? it's prolly right ... the solution for the 1st step of our '3 vs. 2 shares computing game' shows that the break even point will be reached at about the €150 level! there is still a long way 2 go, isn't it?

good luck my shiny investments :-)

ps: when is the best time 2 sell gold/silver and gold/silver stocks? i think we could use the gold-dow-ratio as an proper indicator again. let's think about selling when the ratio will reach levels bellow 3. what's your opinion?

addendum, december 18, 2009: hell! 2day is the moment i've understood what private companies are there for!

folks, you still remember my purchase of few shares of KWS saat, the traditional german seeds/agriculture specialists? they are controlled by 2 families and there is just abt 33.1% of free floating shares on the market ... i'm just gonna 2 tell u the issue #2 from their AGM 2009 invitation (btw, the #1 was just some sort of 'hello folks' i think :-):

Re item 2 on the agenda: Resolution on the appropriation of the net retained profit

The Executive Board and the Supervisory Board propose utilizing the net retained profit of € 12,310,000.00 from the net income of KWSSAAT AG for 2008/2009 as follows: Distribution of a dividend of € 1,80 for each of the total of 6,600,000 shares € 11,880.000.00. Net profit brought forward € 430,000.00. The dividend will be paid on or after December 18, 2009.

now u also know the purpose of private companies, don't u? hell, it is sooo easy! just 2 make money for the owners :-)