Wednesday, March 24, 2010

#jarobuys yukon-nevada gold (YNG) + quantum rare earth (QRE) and listens 2 monument mining (MMY)

what a day 2day!

during my loooong lunch break ive attended an investors presentation in the centre of munich. bob baldock, the CEO of yukon-nevada gold (YNG) + monument mining (MMY) presented his companies to a small group of (smart?) investors in a nice tourist restaurant across from munich's opera house. the event was organized by my old friends, their german IR agency axino as one of many investors conferences in europe (switzerland + germany?).

you still remember my malaysian gold investment monument mining? i think there is everything fine with them! the production is increasing steadily, the next financing should provide +10m for operating purposes, no tax on profits the next 5 years + stable political / economical situation + many opportunities for future growth in malaysia, ... well, even the the stock price didnt participate in the recent rally of its peer group, i think its gonna 2 be a nice low-risk huge-upside-potential long-term investment :-)

what abt yukon-nevada gold? the company's market capitalization dropped from $300m to $3m approx a year ago, their 4 nevada mines + their mill were closed and the company was nearly bankrupt ... hell, thats a situation when bob steps into a deal! 2day is all environmental permitting in nevada succesfully finished, the company's financing for the next few steps secured, 2 out of 4 mines and the mill producing on initial volumes again and YNG is going 2 increase the ore + gold output soon ... well, i bought few shares at current level (even if the current market capitalization is approx CAD 142m, the share price CAD 0.245 is still cheap i think). so lets subscribe for company's newsletter and follow its development + lets hope there will be a moment in the future when there will be both, some money in my pockets + a reasonable share price in order 2 increase the volume of that new portfolio position. hmmmmm, do u think i should beg my wife + kids for that money again?

after my (at the moment soooo boring + senseless) office job ive attended the 2nd investors meeting ~ the presentation of quantum rare earth (QRE) at the cm-equity office ... did u know i was already an (indirect) shareholder of QRE through my zimtu capital investment? i think the rare earths will soon replace lithium as the next boomimg commodity sector (... oil, gold, silver, zinc, nickel, uranium, sugar, lithium, ... every commodity seems to get its chance 2 perform like crazy for a while and then settle down again :-). well, again, lets subscribe for company's newsletter and follow its development + lets hope there will be a moment in the future when there will be both, some money in my pockets + a reasonable share price in order 2 increase the volume of that portfolio position ...

folks, of course i do know that these young / underdeveloped / underfinanced companies need plenty of additional capital + plenty of time to become succesful fighters out there + provide steady cash-flows, pay dividends etc + etc ... but i simply like these kind of investment stories and the upside potential these companies provide if everything will work out even :-)

welcome + good luck, my sweet portfolio warriors!

addendum 01/04/2010: #jarobuys a small initial position in quantum rare earth (QRE) even if there could be some warrants/options exercise orgy in april which could lead to temporarily lower share price ... but who knows that for sure? folks, IMHO is QRE still cheap like an unwanted pet, so who cares?

btw, ive increased also my stake in the promising junior gold explorer rocmec mining (RMI) a little bit as i believe the current bankruptcy related stock price doesnt reflect the latest positive company developments . btw, i was angry like devil abt my (unknown) fellow programmers at lynx brokers as these stupid idiots cannot compute the margin + commission requirements for penny stocks properly and even if i still had a plus balance of CAD 50 or the like, i couldnt submit the order for multiples of 1,000 shares and thus i had to order also a 900 shares lot because of some stupid 'missing' CAD 7 (seven!). the newbie guy at the telephone hotline couldnt do anything abt that as well ... i hate them 2day, of course 

good luck, my lovely rare earth investment 

Friday, March 19, 2010

larry williams + mumbo jumbo + jim rogers + van tharp + jack schwager's market wizards :-)

folks, IMHO is larry williams both, a technically based trader who uses the daily bar charts to identify his entry + exit points and a person, who calls the most chart patterns and the most technical indicators mumbo jumbo or the like ... i hope it helps a lot , larry is a super duper commodity + futures trader, you know?

bruce kovner - folks, i do actually read my InformedPoints hunt prize - jack schwager's market wizards and look: larry williams is not the only top trader who considers technical analysis mumbo jumbo :-). bruce kovner also is! "technical analysis, i think, has a great deal that is right and a great deal that is mumbo jumbo."

well, why mumbo jumbo? ... "technical analysis tracks the past; it does not predict the future" ... he urges the readers 2 "use their own intelligence 2 draw conclusions about what the past activity of some traders may say about the future activity of other traders."

ok, and why is technical analysis also right? "technical analysis reflects the vote of the entire marketplace and, therefore, does pick up unusual behavior."

btw, 'schwager' means brother-in-law in german aaaaaand i've missed george soros in schwager's book ;o)

jim rogers - hell, is there any top trader who believes in technical analysis out there? do u know what did jim rogers answer 2 the question what is his opinion about chart reading? "i haven't met a rich technician. excluding, of course, technicians who sell their technical services and make a lot of money."

well, he still uses charts himself .... "yes, i look them every week. i use them for knowledge, to see what is going on. i learn a lot about what is going on in the world by looking charts. ... i look at charts to see what HAS HAPPENED."

next reason why i like blogging so much discovered! it is sooooo easy 2 enhance & improve former posts and 2 make them more useful 4 my dear readers & myself!

additional trading heroes:

  • michael marcus - for me a disappointing story, but he traded in highly inflationary markets of the mid 70ties, so there could be a lesson learned as IMO we are in the inflationary scenario (inflationary decade?!?) again 
  • richard dennis - trend follower, turtles teacher, ... "government will try 2 avoid the recesion by stimulating the economy, a tactic which essentially doesn't work." ... "keynesian economics is just an excuse 4 easy money, overspending, and overconsuming. we ought to just admit that the government is a debt junkie ... " (1988)
  • paul tudor jones - sooooo philosophic, sooooo great! interesting views abt general economy & reagan & society & market fundamentals & inter-market correlations & much much much much much more 
  • gary bielfeldt - the decent small town bond trader who do not believes on diversification and suggests focusing on 1 field
  • ed seykota - trend trend trend following; automated trading systems; MIT; no chart screens on the office desk as he gets his market data after the close each day; good traders trade. good letter writers write letters; inflation? inflation is part of the way societies sweep away the old order. all currencies eventually get debased - like it or not; psychology is the driver and analysis is the road map; everybody gets what they want out of the market.
  • larry hite - risk risk risk control; trend following; markets are inefficient (because people never change); blue chips (~ the most expensive chips in monte carlo); imagine the worst possible outcome => adjust your risk => huge freedom (of mind?) => 

    1. never risk more than 1% on single trade
    2. diversification (long term / short term trades, different markets)
    3. always follow your methods (you can't know what will your reward be, but you can always know your risk)
    4. stop trading if the volatility is too high
    what else?

    1. never against the trend
    2. always get the big picture
    3. two great indicators:
      a) market doesn't respond to important news (e.g. gold doesn't go up on war news => sell gold)
      b) market makes historic highs => has changed 
    4. two basic rules:
      a) if u dont bet u cant win
      b) if u lose all your chips, u cant bet 
  • michael steinhardt - stock trader/investor, contrarian who sticks 2 his positions as long as he thinks the fundamentals 4 his decision didn't change, takes big positions if he thinks he is right (when he feels the most factors for his fundamental assessment are already fullfilled and thus he doesn't wait for everything beeing fine for an entry as then is usually too late for a trade/investment ... ~ i didn't like that interview that much ...
  • william o'neil - art of stock picking; buy just the strongest stocks before they take off (own CANSLIM method based on growth in earnings, EPS, new situation like new product/CEO/etc., volume, ...); 18 common investor's mistakes; buy stocks which reached new highs; dont care too much abt dividends/ EPS / P/E / / etc.; quality has its price ~ quality stocks as well; look for approx 20% institutional ownership (=support) 4 your stocks; ALWAYS limit losses by 7%; dont buy penny stocks; ignore news / tips / stock analysts / rumours; market paradox: cheap stocks often tend 2 go lower and expensive stocks often tend 2 go higher; ...
  • david ryan - started as o'neil's lap dog, had great individual success in one trading contest in 3 consecutive years (gains above 100% p.a.), till now nothing new compared to the o'neil interview ...
  • marty schwartz - very successful stock trader; very hard working (too hard for my taste ~ he even didnt stop working during the interview ~ btw, i'm rather a supporter of the harmonic taoist philosophy like 'do what u are doing' and the like :-); marine officer; stops losses fast; concentrates on defense; he dont tries bottom fishing (too often), very interesting written as on the way 2 work i have missed 2 go out of the underground train by two (!!) stops and had to wait 4 the next train in the opposite direction ...
  • mark weinstein - market should be totally free of restrictions; quick profits within hours or even minutes; if his gut feel of market conditions is not right, he dont trade; trading like a sparrow eats; looks 4 a market that is losing momentum and then goes the other way; dont trades until an opportunity presents itself; limit losses quickly; fears a larger loss and hopes for a larger profit;
  • brian gelber - broker & trader; suggests 2 do what suits the individual personality instead of doing everything and beein exhausted too early (in lifetime perspective); trading is huuuge stress; most traders who fail have large egos and cant admit that they are wrong; never adds 2 a loser position; suggests not 2 overtrade and not 2 beg 4 tips;
  • tom baldwin - you are never really confident in this business, because you can always be wiped out pretty quckly; patience is an important traint many people dont have :-)
  • tony saliba - options strategies (e.g. 'butterfly' with long/short positions in the same market in different contract months ...); high correlation between the action on friday and on the next monday morning; alwAYS RESPECT THE MARKETPLACE; NEVER TAKE ANYTHING FOR GRANTED; think in 'what-if' strategies ~ what if the opposite of your scenario happens? trading is an addiction; put part of your money in other investments ~ real estate, stores, exchange seats, annuity, ...
  • van k. tharp - hmmmm: trader? writer? NLPer? psychologist? coach? all of that! 
    soooo psychlogical, soooo philosophical! .... most people approach trading 2 make a lot of money, and that is one of the primary reasons they lose. because money is so important, they have trouble taking losses and letting profits run ...
    top traders believe:

    • money is NOT important
    • it is OK to lose in the markets
    • trading is a game
    • mental rehearsal is important 4 success
    • they've won the game before they start

poll! we were just talking abt:
a) the psychology of trading
b) the food after van's presentation
c) both
d) none of that 

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

great jim rogers interview

jim rogers + me (february 2008 in munich)

folks, listen 2 invetsment legend jim rogers :-)

source: king world news, march 13, 2010 (abt 30-40 minutes, IMHO 100% worth listening :-):

some highlights: china; buble in china's real estate; commodities; protectionism, politicians continue to make mistakes; social unrests; war in iran/israel???; energy problem; oil; gas; UK; greece; ireland; €uro; iceland; california; asia (= creditors nations); usa can never repay its current debt; ...

source of written interview-data

Eric King: Is a day of more of a social breakdown rapidly approaching would you say?

Jim Rogers: Well, I certainly don't want it. Nobody does anywhere, but what I can see is they keep making mistakes, and as you keep making mistakes ultimately the situation is going to be worse.
The economic and geopolitical situation will be worse, and so we as Americans are going to be more and more unhappy and that again is not a radical statement. It has always led to social unrest. We are seeing some now in the US. Other countries in the world have seen governments topple in the last two, three, four years by what's going on. And I am afraid that the people in Washington are making it worse, and if it does get worse as I anticipate, that has always led to social unrest, throughout history, everywhere in the world.

Eric King: If you had to guess on the social breakdowns in the United States, what kind of a time frame would you give me as a guess?

Jim Rogers: Well, certainly within the next decade, I mean that would be easy to say, perhaps sooner. You know Eric I know people who insist that the US will have to default on it's government debt in the next couple of years. That's not my statement, I don't know because I haven't done the homework, but I do know people I admire who swear to me it's going to happen. If that sort of thing starts happening, we have problems at the state level, the city level, and if the US government is in that kind of trouble, whenever it is, whether it's the next two years or in the next ten years, it's going to lead to problems.

Again, I don't like saying it first of all, second, it's just the way the world has always worked, not a radical statement. But if suddenly people cannot get food or cannot get jobs, especially you know, the America of this decade is not the America of the 1930's, in the America of the 1930's people were still disciplined, hard working, much more so than they are now. Now in the US, there is more of a, "you owe it to us mentality" than there was in America a hundred years ago, or eighty years ago. Again that's not a strange thing, it's just a historic fact and people with that current attitude are more inclined to be unhappy and do something about it than others.

Sunday, March 14, 2010

ecosia - the green search engine :-)

what about a search engine which would help to save the remaining rainforests? folks, lets give it a try :-)

well, watch the short introduction video (1:46) or visit ecosia's website in order to learn more abt their usage of green electric power and abt their donation of 80% of profits to rainforest projects run by WWF (sorry folks, i couldn’t find the embed-code so pls follow the link):

hmmmmm, still wanna more details? ok, lets watch the longer video (7:41) with additional related information. what did i like most? unlike most other search engines, ecosia dont save + analyze + sell my user profile to advertisers etc! thats great, isnt it?

btw, want you join me and thousands others environmentalists and also become a supporter of WWF and/or greenpeace?

ps: if you use mozilla’s firefox as your browser, you will see the area of rainforest saved by your search queries directly in the status bar at the bottom of your browser window J

pps: of course, lets hope google will apply ecosia's ideas and save even more rainforests / nature ;o)

Saturday, March 6, 2010

my best investment?

what abt my best investment? of course, best just in terms of money ... please dont think abt investment in education, in my wife (thx goodness, i've got her! nobody would work all day for sooooo many years without any salary, u know? lol), invetment in peace, future of planet earth or any 'feel good' stuff. pls think here just in terms of investment return, ok? what abt craaaazy +703% in 1 year? damned hell, why did i not bought that stock 2 months earlier (in 2008) as that would be a tax free profit in that 'old german tax law' case :-(

folks, it is the gold explorer levon resources (TSX.V: LVN, company website). i've bought 5,000 shares in late february 2009 because of all the good news in their newsletters i've subscribed for some time and because of the cheap price. well, i couldnt understand why did the share price not skyrocket on all the great prospects so i've decided 2 take a bet against mr. market, you know? i just thought, damn, it is not a valid reason 2 keep the price down just because nobody wants that stock or because the overall market collapsed (in march)! do u agree abt these points 2day, my dear mr. market, dont u? well, the stock price didnt do much in the next few months ... then doubled in june ... and came back in july again ... in order 2 wake up mr. market from his lethargy i wrote a blog post abt the riiiiising gold price acceleration in august 2009. well, mr. market got the message, gold climbed from $935 up to $1,200 and levon from my entry level @ EUR 0.079 up to EUR 0.663 (= the intraday all-time-high level yesterday = CAD 0.93)! gold exploration business is soooooo crazy, isn't it?

question #1: how does an increase of +703.78% look like? no clue? hmmmmm, it looks like that (all quotes in CAD, view full page here):

(5 years vs. 6 months vs. intraday)

question #2: how does it look like if an investment doesnt do well? hmmmmm, it looks the same, u just have 2 turn your head left or rotate the chart by 90 degrees in the clockwise direction. easy, isnt it? btw, im not going to post the corresponding charts of failed investments here. few of them are still in my portfolio (sterling mining, qimonda, RBS, hy lake, buffalo gold, ...), few others disappeared from the quotations list after their bankruptcy :-(

question #3: when is the right time 2 sell a stock like levon resources? thats easy! just look into my crystal ball and/or ask my dear 100-years-old indicator, the dow-gold-ratio :-)