Saturday, November 1, 2008

market outlook 2009+

folks, the crashy year 2008 is over soon, here is my guess for the middle/long term market outlook :o)):

stocks: up! i think we will see an inflationary rally
folks, today = 2 months later = 12/27/2008 i'm not sooo sure if this scenario happens. why? well, despite the unbelievable huuuuge amounts of money pumped into the financial markets by governments + their small dirty central banks, the economy continues contracting itself, people stop buying unnecessary things like new cars, bigger TV-screens, new houses or even new kitchens ... well, if the companies stop making profits or even start making losses, that would probably lower the stock prices even from the current low, low, low levels! IMHO are the governments + their small dirty central banks all over the freaking world doing big, big mistakes with all their dirty bail-outs and market regulations ... i'm afraid that their stupid actions will cause a much more severe recession/depression as we would face without any interference. or do u believe that taking the money from the competent people and companies (tax payers) and giving it to incompetent people and companies (the bailouted banks, car makers etc.) in order to let them compete against the competent ones again will resolve any problems?
don't forget: if printing money were the solution to all economic malinvestments + mistakes zimbabwe were the best country on earth! but it isn't and it is probably the most poor and ruined country instead! hell, why want all this small corrupt politicians in western europe + usa try the zimbabwean way?

commodities: up! a lot! inflation and supply/demand driven

bonds: down! it could be the next bubble which pops! why? interest rates are artificially low and the bonds currently so high; the western governments are so heavily and hopeless over indebted that i do not believe they will pay their debts back one day ;o(. i would rather expect some monetary reform after a sad period of hyperinflation. do YOU see any kind of security in this so 'secure' investments? btw, i do not track bonds closely, so don't think too long about my outlook :O)

inflation: UP, UP, UP! no wonder facing all these huge bailouts in the financial sector. what do i think about the increase in money supply (keyword M3)? don't ask me that, i would have to cry! ok. so what about the price of beer @ oktoberfest or about a price of coffee in the local outdoor swimming pool in few years? don't ask me that either :o((

=> welcome to the INFLATIONARY stocks and assets price rally !
=> welcome to the crack-up boom !!
=> welcome to the kondratieff winter :o(( !!!
=> welcome to state controls + regulations + swindling democracy all over the freaking world !!!!

well, what could that mean for people like you and me? IMHO will the middle class probably dissappear :-((. but don't worry too much about that! we will not dissapear from this freaking planet really, we will just join the poor class ... it could be worse :o)

questions of the day: how long could that false boom last? when will we see not just a default of some 'unimportant' nations (iceland, hungary, ukraine, pakistan = 4 in the last few weeks!!!), but also a bankruptcy of some 'imortant' western economies (US, UK, germany, italy, spain, france, ...)? when will all that fiat paper money fail? when will a major monetary reform arrive on planet earth again? do u have enough gold + silver ALREADY?

how could you protect yourself and your family against all that financial mess out there and prepare somehow for that (not really nice) scenario? it is still the same: buy [@ these low, low, low prices!] as much gold, silver, commodities like oil + agriculture, energy + 'green' energy as u can afford and you will be very, very glad. or don't and u won't ;o))

=> this investing stuff is sooooo easy !!!
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