performance 2009 + market outlook & strategy 2010

folks, the last year is over! i'm telling you, just in case you haven't mentioned yet , did you?

what abt my performance in 2009? well, i have 2 speed up that boring collecting of data from my accounts, tomorrow there will be new quotes again ...

a) investment account, approx 95% of all liquid funds

well, i hold my stocks usually longer than a year, so there is no exact performance measurment possible, but you know what? i have opened a new account in july 2008, so there is an easy 2 compute performance on ALL NEW POSITIONS purchased since then possible. btw, it is very similar 2 the 2009 performance as i bought few stocks before the crash in october 2008 and then managed 2 add huuuge amounts of money (from my job's earnings perspective) in november/december 2008, february/march 2009, may 2009 and a little bit in other months if there were some money left on my general bank account. thx goodness, in most cases BEFORE the markets advanced . btw, the dividends are not included in my performance statistics. why not? 1st of all because i'm too lazy to select them from my account bills (remember, there are companies like goldcorp, penn west trust and others which pay monthly dividends), 2nd because the most junior gold/silver explorer companies don't pay any dividends, so by keeping my money invested in some fixed-rates-securities instead, i would earn more interest payments than i've got dividends in 2009

• performance 2009 (from 07/2008) = +59.11%

more details? as always, the link 2 my portfolio incl. mission statement, blah-blah, jim rogers video, etc.

b) (micro) trading account, approx 5% of all liquid funds

well, here i have the exact numbers! btw, before the commodities crashed in the last 2 or 3 trading days in december, my trading profits were nearly twice as high! well, that's prolly because of my missing time + attitude, as i just keep my positions running and do not play much with limits, profit takings, etc., but i call that 'strategy', so it's ok!!! otherwise i would prolly overtrade, which could mean even a worse perfomance than this current 'capitalize-your-account-accordingly-and-buy-commodities-at-dips' approach, you know?

• performance 2009 = +30.98%

c) my market outlook + corresponding strategy?

folks, it is an INFLATIONARY HARD ASSETS RALLY out there, therefore i'm going 2 continue playing my inflation invetsments [gold + SILVER + gold stocks + silverrrrr stocks + commodity stocks + special technologies stocks (lithium batteries, green energy, nanotechnology, ...) against my €uro savings] next year and longer! how long? at least till there will come a president/central banker a la paul volcker, who would really fight against inflation as volcker did ... OR till we will see the ugly state defaults + monertary reforms in the streets ... OR till the dow-gold-ratio tells me, the inflection point is there! btw, there was a great discussion in a former blog thread i've started earlier with charts abt all that paper money added 2 the system + many other reasons why i'm still soooo bullish on commodities ...

of course, you will think i'm just a lazy worthless piece of human trash as my wife soooo often tells me, which i really am, but you know, the world is not gonna 2 change fundamentally every day or even every year! so why 2 write in such strong commodities trend every year a new forecast? you see? well, let's use the old market outlook again (= idea recycling ~ blog post recycling!)

chakka! + let's create a happy new year

... few hours later ... hell, hell, hell! what a beginning of the year! right trend + right time + right strategy = a new (much, much, much higher) all-time-high in my invetsment portfolio (+5.17% right now) and nearly all-time high in my trading account (silver, nat. gas, o-juice, coffee, corn, wheat => approx +18%) => thx, mr. market, thx

... next few hours later ... hell, what a day 2day! both, all time high in my investment portfolio and best single day with +5.52% => watched the avatar movie with the best of all wives (great message! great pictures!) => pina colada + caipirinha in 'el diablo' (mex bar) => folks, i'm such a lucky alien :-)

addendum january 5th, 2010:
oh, my dear! ooooooorange juice +7.33% => i have 4 contracts => new all-time-high in trading account as well ... let's go 2 the weekly trader's club with all-time-highs in both, investment and trading account ...

did i tell already i like 2010 a lot? no? pls consider that as told right now

hell, euphoria is such a nice feeling!

my market outlook ...

folks, i do not think/feel all financial assets will crash this time as they did last october (stocks, interest rates, commodities, real estate, ...)
i think we will see an inflationary rally in commodities and the steady rising gold price remembers us about that inflationary scenario, doesn't it? (some older guys often mention the 70ties in that inflationary context => ?). in my opinion we will prolly also see the demise of the USD soon as the world will not for ever deliver products & services to usa in exchange for self-printed green papers ... btw, the €uro is not any better, so i further think there will be some next monetary reform which will re-animate gold/silver backed currency/currencies again.

bonds? i do not consider bonds in my 'universe' because they are too boring for me + my account is not properly capitalized for bond investments + in an inflationary scenario are bonds the worst solution possible, so why to think about them?
stocks? i'm very bullish on precious metals (pm), so i'm even more bullish on pm-stocks, but why? is it just because i'm already so heavily invested or is there any fundamental reason for further increase? i'm really not sure ... unlike the most other gold bugs i even do not consider gold @ $1.000 cheap (you still remember my gold-price-manipulation blog post?). of course, there is the huuuuuge danger of inflation where all hard assets should perform well against paper assets (cash, bonds, today's low interest rate bank accounts, ...), especially well should perform silver (poor man's gold ) ... what about general stock markets like djia, s&p 500, dax? hmmmm, on the one hand there will always be some hot stories/technologies out there which will perform phenomenally (at the moment prolly batteries, lithium, electric cars,

green energy + pm explorers) and on the other hand the major stock indexes contain also many commodity stocks (e.g. with alcoa, chevron + exxon is dow by 10% commodity related :), thus i do not think stocks will drop in price soooo dramatically as last october as there was no money in the markets at that time and many positions have been liquidated at any price because of margin calls etc.
otherwise, stock prices will reflect the development of corporate earnings in the long run, here i'm really sceptical and i think the recent upswing on the markets since march moved the prices far too high, esp. the financial stocks are IMHO sooooooo overvalued, but i wouldn't go short... we never know how much money will the governments and their small dirty central banks add to the system and who will directly receive that new money next time ... maybe the banks/insurances again?
ps: i always look for purchase opportunities in the stock markets and always have few stocks on my watch list where i only wait for some fresh money to buy them, but not now! i've invested the major part of my remaining funds before my summer vacation between may and august [by some coincidence of luck & fate it was just few weeks/months before mining stocks really took off :-)] as i've been waiting for the gold rally to come in august, but there is not a single 'i-really-want-to-buy' stock on my list now ... are stocks too expensive already? nevertheless i'm not going to sell any stocks soon anyway unless the 100-years-dow-gold-indicator tells me to do so, it's an (inflationary) bull market, i think ...
pps:

"No one can know the precise level of net debt at which the United States will lose its reputation but a few more years like this one and we will find out." — Warren Buffett

"Fiscally, we are in uncharted territory." — Warren Buffett, August 19, 2009

(illustration by lara tomlin)

addendum, november 16, 2009:

folks, i was sooooooo damned right on the markets this time and so is my gold + silver + commodities portfolio, huhuuuuu!

i'm not sure if it was just question of luck, but the commodity and stock markets tweeted that since weeks to me ~ they rose like hell no matter how disastrous the economy news was ... so i thougt the folks out there will buy anything at any price just to get rid of their paper money :-)

well, IMHO gold below $1,000 is history => WE ARE IN THE EARLY PHASE OF AN INFLATIONARY HARD ASSETS RALLY !!!