2012 ~ my financial disaster is over

my performance 2012 + outlook 2013++

the real year end numbers will be coming soon, right after the u.s. + canadian markets close or tomorrow if i should be already too drunken in order to forget 2012 asap ... but i can tell you right now, this year was a disaster not only for my buy-and-hold mining stocks portfolio like in 2011 but also my micro trading account suffered a lot. why all of that? unfortunately, mainly because the real world out there did not fit to my believes about the world, economy, markets :-(

• my micro trading account ~ re-opened after 7 months break in may 2012 ~ strategy: long only commodities like oil, silver, orange juice, coffee, cocoa, wheat, corn, sugar + natural gas ~ mainly with stop loss orders and profit taking orders ~ approximately minus 2,000 €uros i.e. minus 67,30% => omg :-(
• my investment account ~ strategy: buy-and-hold mostly mining or explorer stocks from the sectors gold, silver, base metals (especially copper + iron) plus some green energy and technology ~ approximately minus 74,000 €uros, the percentage is difficult to compute as i did often add new money into new or existing positions, but i guess the loss in 2012 was about 20% => omg, omg, omg ... all of my 2010 fictive profits are gone and 11% of initially invested capital is gone with it ... omg :-( ... btw, the most relevant underlyings for my stock positions gold and silver were up 7% and 8% in 2012 respectively. not too bad, wouldn't you say? well, the markets do not have to be rational all the time :-(((

anyway, let's hope the upcoming year of the snake (= 2013) will be much, much, much better for commodity investments than the year of the dragon was ... or at least that i will be able to adjust my strategy to the real world in the financial markets :-)

my outlook for 2013? not much different from previous years ... even if the current markets play the deflation card with falling commodity prices all over the board, i believe that the reckless money printing by our western governments and their small dirty central banks ECB, FED, BoE, SNB, BoJ, etc. will finally cause inflation, inflation, inflation with rising commodity + cost of living prices; the protectionism will cause a collapse of trade and the economy; the financial-military complex  will start a NATO war against iran even if iran did not threat any other country in the last few hundred years (unless the west would succeed to corrupt or assassinate iranian leaders or to 'buy' an al-qaeda / muslim brotherhood driven 'revolution' in iran ... do you remember the war template used in iraq, libya, syria?).

any other forecast? yes, the fraudulent debt + phony economy system will not survive 2013 as its lifeblood, the paper money system, will finally crash. why a monetary reform right in 2013? well, mainly because the system didn't crash in 2012, my dears and because there is a rising awakening and awareness all over the world, so there will be less people who will accept the power elites' solution which in the last few decades always was money printing + reduction of democracy + rising surveillance of own citizens + the like. just consider, 4 years after the stock market crash of 1929 came the great depression. now, 4 years after the crash of 2008 and after our current corrupt leaders made already similar mistakes as the past leaders did 80 years before (e.g. protectionism or the huge misallocation of capital through government's stimulus), the economy should reach the same disastrous state like it have had in 1933 i fear ....

anyway, go gold bugs go and let's finally crash the fraudulent fiat money system in 2013. yeah, let's make a better 2013 or at least a change for a better world :-)

source: here

eof

performance 2011 = pain, pain, pain ;-(

what an ugly year at the financial markets!

source: facebook

what the hell happened with me and the markets in 2011? well, the base of my former success, the (steady) rising gold + silver + commodities prices, was not the only difference this time .... unlike the last few years, in 2011 was the gold silver rally in late august unfortunately OVER with an all-time-high @ $1,921 just read my euphoric comment(s) + watch the funny screen shots as the gold price crossed the 1,900 burden ... and later on came the 2008-like-crash in mining stock prices ;-(

if u dont understand why im gonna separate between trading and investing results, its because traders and investors are 2 different species of our dear homo sapiens financialis. just think abt it for a second or two ...

traders = paranoid dreamers who fight against insiders, against political manipulators (eg interventions of central banks in the currency + bond markets), often even against fundamental conditions and own believes in order to snap off few bucks out of short-term movements of the financial markets. (jaro gruber)

investors = stupid idiots who sell their stocks even for a price next to nothing and then wonder why fell 'the markets' that low (jaro gruber)

of course, both traders and investors if they succeed have to pay taxes, support the society and oppose their ugly bloodsucking speculator image made by politics & mainstream media in order to direct the public outrage away from politicians. what if they lose? easy, then they lose their own money and nobody cares abt them .... go homo sapiens financialis go :)

• my micro trading account: approx 2-3% of all funds; commodity CFDs (natural gas, silver, wheat, orange juice, coffee, sugar, corn, rice, ...). yes, my swing + position trading worked quite fine again, ive made 6k €uros from january till july, which means a YTD trading-performance of +82.5% in 2011, my 2nd best result ever, next to crazy +347% in 2010 ... not bad, isnt it? btw, my peak performance mark was above +10k in june, but then ive lost 4k in 4 days while on holidays. of course, u can go through the july blog post linked above if u are interested in trading psychology issues :-). after the worldwide stock exchanges and my broker consequently increased the margin requirements (e.g. in silver CFDs +700%) and i was forced to provide much much much more money in order to keep a similar line of open positions, ive decided to quit my trading completely. the 2nd reason to quit was my (absolutely wrong) assumption that the gold/silver mining stocks are going to take off and rally for the rest of the year and thus ive mobilized all financial resources i could get .... what a mistake! btw, im not disappointed abt my decision. why not? damn, cos of my hyper-inflationary scenario i was commodities long only but the markets reacted more like in 2008 which means there was panic all over the board (commodities, equities, the most sovereign bonds, ....) and i would definitely lose money, just look at the development of commodity prices since summer till now. well, lets move to the investing part of my 'performance'.

• my investing account(s): approx 97-98% of all funds; mostly gold + silver + commodity stocks, few energy stocks (esp. green energy), few internet + technology stocks, 1 silver ETF (~ my cash position), 2 different oil call options (one sold in november). PAIN + PAIN + PAIN ... except the first 2.5 months ive felt like in the crashy 2008, u know? there was such a selling pressure in late march, may, july, september, october, november, december ... OMD ;( ... i had to sell few of my positions and few others have been sold by my broker because of margin calls in the sept/oct crash etc and so fort ...  well, the balance of my actions in 2011 was approx plus 60 €uros including my tax loss selling of my silver ETF on xmas eve at a loss of 4.7k in order 2 reduce the tax impacts of my remaining trading/investing profits ... not 2 bad u think? wrong, wrong, wrong my friends ... the problem are the open positions, u know? well, ive lost close to 100k of last year's fictive profits .... it hurts like hell .... of course, i consider my investing account rather as 'numbers' and not as 'money', but 100k could easily buy a new car and leave 50k for additional purchase of mining stocks at these soooooooo depressed levels ... it hurts like hell again ... what to do know? nothing, what else? yep, our 11 years old car cant go into a museum yet and has to survive a year or 2 longer, who cares?

any additional insights? well, after the tax payers all over the rescued the big banks in 2008/2009 the financial crisis turned into sovereign debt crisis (greece, irland, usa, italy, ...); the nuclear disaster in fukushima/japan was not bad enough in order to quit usage of nuclear energy and nuclear weapons (NATO's uranium ammunition 'left' all over the war places); the senseless western colonial wars continued in iraq, afghanistan, libya, .... ; the exorbitant western agricultural subsidies caused additional bankruptcies of farmers in 3rd world and thus hunger + starvation again (esp eastern africa ... btw, the situation there is so hopeless that few desperate folks try to survive as pirates ... OMD, pirates in 21th century!!!); the CIA financed arab spring movement caused revolutions in tunisia, egypt, syria, .... and finally, there is a big big BIG HOPE for 2012+ as the #OccupyWallStreet movement started in NYC and could spread itself around the globe. finally do people like u and me claim for justice + freedom + real democracy + a new society ruled by people and not by huge corporations & illuminati & corrupt governments ...

any lessons learned in 2011? the financial markets are not a one-way-road.

my outlook for 2012+ is not much different from previous years ... the fiat money crisis will continue and become worse and worse until the #OccupyWallStreet movement finally replaces the ruling 'elites' by real democracy and the fraudulent paper money system will be replaced by s.th. else, prolly by gold/silver backed currency(ies)

what to say after my whole financial mess is completely revealed and 2011 is in few hours over? what abt a slogan as every year? ok. merry crisis + happy new fear! huhhhhh? not pessimistic enough? ok, my 2nd trial: merry xmas + happy new year + occupy2012, my friends ;-)

my performance 2010 + outlook 2011

folks, a great great year is over, the stock-exchanges in germany closed @ 2 pm ...

already 2009 was a great (after-crash) year, but 2010 was a mere frenzy for my accounts! guys, ive made more in the markets than in my office job :-) ... much much more ... ie approx 1.5 times more ... pls dont think abt the term 'trading 4 living' cos im not going 2 do that in the near future as it is a big big difference between having to earn money and to withdraw money 4 living each month out of the accounts on the one hand and just playing with surplus money in the markets on the other hand, u know? ... OMG! i still cant believe my success in the markets ... well, cos of my perspective of the financial/economical world out there and my outlook 2011 im not going 2 sell (m)any of my hero-performer-stocks any time soon, so the most profits are still fictive right now :-)

so what happened 2010? my market outlook a year ago was right and so was my strategy! yep, we had an inflationary hard assets rally as commodities and commodity stocks rallied like crazy. imho it is no wonder facing all that stupid bailouts, stimulus packages, quantitative easing and other similar fraudulent interventions ... it doesnt looks like if there is a major change for better to the current investment environment out there, so despite the much higher commodity prices i dont have to adjust/change my old market outlook a lot if at all [wanna read part c) in last years blog?]. its amazing 2 read old stuff after the time has proven what was right and what not, isnt it?

• my micro trading account: commodity CFDs (natural gas, silver, wheat, orange juice, coffee, sugar, corn, rice) ... ive often managed to increase my positions on dips in the huge uptrend ... of course, ive sometimes exited the markets too soon cos the prices went after a short correction much higher without my involvement (eg. sugar, coffee) ... what abt performance in numbers? my account is up 344% as ive withdrawn 12k out of an 4.3k account during the year and there is still 7k left ... i will update the 'final' numbers when the u.s. market closes 2night ... => +347.80% in 2010 :-)

• my investing account: mining stocks (approx 95% of all funds i think), energy stocks, agriculture/food stocks, call options 4 oil, water + new energy ETFs and few technology stocks. well, i was lucky 2 increase my holdings many times this year, especially in august before the gold/silver rally started. i hope those of you who followed my opinions/ideas and have chosen few of my picks for yourselves dont complain too loud, there are not many mining stocks among them which increased less than 100% in 2010, so it was not too difficult to grab a big portion of their moves i think :-). well, lets mention few of my top performers: rio alto mining (a 33-bagger since december 2008), novagold (21-bagger since december 2008), 1st majestic silver, orko silver, silver wheaton, us gold, us silver, megastar development, andover ventures, western potash, commerce resources, aquila res, zimtu capital, xstrata, rio tinto, endeavor silver, fortuna silver, source res, vg gold, cardero res, amerigo res, levon res (19-bagger since february 2009), sabina gold + silver, minera andes, alderon res, mirasol res, rubicon minerals, dundee precious metals, hecla mining, paramount gold + silver, bhp billiton, great panther silver, adamus res, 1st quantum minerals, source exploration, energold drilling, altona mining, premier gold, scorpio mining, ... btw, what abt my performance in numbers? hmmmm, its 2 difficult 2 compute it as i hold my positions usually longer than a year and i continuous increase my positions if there is some fresh money available like recently in august + november ... the current balance of all open positions is +86.56% ... well, my portfolio is posted on my website anyway, so if u are really interested in it shouldnt take u more than 3 minutes 2 find it :-)

lets look forward 2 the year of the rabbit, lets look forward to 2011 ... and ...

... lets create a happy new year :-)

final update after the market closed: well, the commodity markets were up a lot yesterday, all my trading positions were 'green', one of my top 10 days ever i think, highest gains with gas + rice for a daily profit of 13.39% => the performance of my micro trading account in 2010 was +347.80%

ps: its just crazy that after my stocks on thursday closed the year at highest level ever, even my CFDs rallied on friday on the very last trading session in 2010 to my personal all-time-high

pps: there were many reasons for my success in 2010, see the prolly most important in the chart below:

silver in 2010 (source: onvista.de)

(my favorite markets rallied like crazy ;-)

performance 2009 + market outlook & strategy 2010

folks, the last year is over! i'm telling you, just in case you haven't mentioned yet , did you?

what abt my performance in 2009? well, i have 2 speed up that boring collecting of data from my accounts, tomorrow there will be new quotes again ...

a) investment account, approx 95% of all liquid funds

well, i hold my stocks usually longer than a year, so there is no exact performance measurment possible, but you know what? i have opened a new account in july 2008, so there is an easy 2 compute performance on ALL NEW POSITIONS purchased since then possible. btw, it is very similar 2 the 2009 performance as i bought few stocks before the crash in october 2008 and then managed 2 add huuuge amounts of money (from my job's earnings perspective) in november/december 2008, february/march 2009, may 2009 and a little bit in other months if there were some money left on my general bank account. thx goodness, in most cases BEFORE the markets advanced . btw, the dividends are not included in my performance statistics. why not? 1st of all because i'm too lazy to select them from my account bills (remember, there are companies like goldcorp, penn west trust and others which pay monthly dividends), 2nd because the most junior gold/silver explorer companies don't pay any dividends, so by keeping my money invested in some fixed-rates-securities instead, i would earn more interest payments than i've got dividends in 2009

• performance 2009 (from 07/2008) = +59.11%

more details? as always, the link 2 my portfolio incl. mission statement, blah-blah, jim rogers video, etc.

b) (micro) trading account, approx 5% of all liquid funds

well, here i have the exact numbers! btw, before the commodities crashed in the last 2 or 3 trading days in december, my trading profits were nearly twice as high! well, that's prolly because of my missing time + attitude, as i just keep my positions running and do not play much with limits, profit takings, etc., but i call that 'strategy', so it's ok!!! otherwise i would prolly overtrade, which could mean even a worse perfomance than this current 'capitalize-your-account-accordingly-and-buy-commodities-at-dips' approach, you know?

• performance 2009 = +30.98%

c) my market outlook + corresponding strategy?

folks, it is an INFLATIONARY HARD ASSETS RALLY out there, therefore i'm going 2 continue playing my inflation invetsments [gold + SILVER + gold stocks + silverrrrr stocks + commodity stocks + special technologies stocks (lithium batteries, green energy, nanotechnology, ...) against my €uro savings] next year and longer! how long? at least till there will come a president/central banker a la paul volcker, who would really fight against inflation as volcker did ... OR till we will see the ugly state defaults + monertary reforms in the streets ... OR till the dow-gold-ratio tells me, the inflection point is there! btw, there was a great discussion in a former blog thread i've started earlier with charts abt all that paper money added 2 the system + many other reasons why i'm still soooo bullish on commodities ...

of course, you will think i'm just a lazy worthless piece of human trash as my wife soooo often tells me, which i really am, but you know, the world is not gonna 2 change fundamentally every day or even every year! so why 2 write in such strong commodities trend every year a new forecast? you see? well, let's use the old market outlook again (= idea recycling ~ blog post recycling!)

chakka! + let's create a happy new year

... few hours later ... hell, hell, hell! what a beginning of the year! right trend + right time + right strategy = a new (much, much, much higher) all-time-high in my invetsment portfolio (+5.17% right now) and nearly all-time high in my trading account (silver, nat. gas, o-juice, coffee, corn, wheat => approx +18%) => thx, mr. market, thx

... next few hours later ... hell, what a day 2day! both, all time high in my investment portfolio and best single day with +5.52% => watched the avatar movie with the best of all wives (great message! great pictures!) => pina colada + caipirinha in 'el diablo' (mex bar) => folks, i'm such a lucky alien :-)

addendum january 5th, 2010:
oh, my dear! ooooooorange juice +7.33% => i have 4 contracts => new all-time-high in trading account as well ... let's go 2 the weekly trader's club with all-time-highs in both, investment and trading account ...

did i tell already i like 2010 a lot? no? pls consider that as told right now

hell, euphoria is such a nice feeling!