precious metals fair (munich, 07.-08. november)

gold, silver, oil, exploration, mining, much more people than the last few years (a new commodity trend or just the fear of the 2008 financial crisis?), true money instead of paper, old friends, faces behind companies from my investment portfolio ...

...

what about silver producers with strong cash flow + zero debt (?) + strong management + share price more than 80% bellow their highs from march this year? what about companies where you can buy shares cheaper than their managers when founding them? or what about explorer companies with market capitalization equal and sometimes even BELLOW their CASH RESERVES? => the chances of the decade or of our whole freaking life? damned hell, is there any account of my wife or the kids i could plunder before the end of the year :o)? why so quickly? well, the new taxation of stock-market profits from january, 1st is aready agreed by german government... what else? some very good presentations e.g. james turk (gold), dietmar siebholz (rare earths and the aggressive economy in china vs. the sleeping economy in europe), david morgan (silver), rolf nef (inflation, gold, SILVER options). last but not least: a verification of the following hypothesis by myself:

THE FINANCIAL MARKETS ARE INEFFICIENT !!!

why? there have been at least 5 to 6 coin dealers, many of them provided THE SAME investment coins, just the price was different. folks, you could buy 1 oz 'vienna philharmonic' silver coin for 11.50 €uros @ one dealer's desk, few steps away for 12.83 euros @ some other dealer :o)). folks, that is 11.57% more! => ok, let's try some conclusion: well, are the markets really inefficient or just the people soooo stupid? you are right, BOTH !!!

...

btw, which companies did i like most? there were many of them (current market prices offer IMHO huuuuge profit opportunities for people who still have some money to invest :o): scorpio mining, miranda gold, cardero resources, globex minig, paramount gold + silver, source exploration, bravo venture, buffalo gold, ...

...

scorpio? mining? here we go :o))

black thursday

to do ... document trades: sugar, coffee, 2 x gas, 11x DJIA, tecdax, ...

lessons learned: in nowadays huuuuge-volatility markets i have to place much, much, much tighter trailing stops on winning positions (sugar, coffee, natural gas) as otherwise are the significant parts of theoretical profits wiped out again :o((
the commodity markets are not 'ready' for up-trends yet! even coffee and natural gas, which usually have strong seasonal up-trends in the winter months, ran just 2-3 days significantly up, today were all gains wiped out again :o(( ...

some more words about today = the next panic day:
sugar -6.16%
coffee -4.90%
S&P500 -5.03%
DJIA -4.85% (all 30 stocks negative! best = coca-cola -0.54%, ... ,
alcoa -13,05%
general motors -13.67% = worst)
tecdax -8.63%
nikkei -6.53%
deutsche bank -12.82%
ThyssenKrupp -12.55%
MAN -12.22%
crude oil brent -9.48%
...

=> YES, we have a selling climax just now :-((

...

DAY-TRADING DOESN'T FIT MY PERSONALITY ;o((

yes folks, it is sad for me and for my visions & dreams also ... and yes, i had already some doubts about that earlier (see my older day-trading considerations :o), but now i'm sure:

DAY-TRADING DOESN'T FIT MY PERSONALITY ;o((

well, it is the result from my trading experience this week! let me explain that: i took 1 week off to try out how would i succeed in the markets as a day-trader! all surrounding conditions were perfect:

• i moved some money to my CFD account a week earlier
• my wife and my youngest daughter are on holidays in poland @ their relatives, so there is no one who could deflect my concentration or take any negative influence on me or on my trading
• i 'm not tired in front of my screen (as usually :) as i do not have to work 8-10 hours a day in my office and i also sleep enough, because i can read all the business-related data on the internet during the day
• i have a great mental balance
• i can often go to gym + swimming (my wife left me her fitness-center-card :) and i also do not have many routine duties, if any :o)
• additionaly i even get some help and support from my eldest daughter (i'm not the born cook or housekeeper :-) and i also have some nice conversations with her after she returns from university => so i'm even not alone all the day and therefore i cannot lose reality-relationship, which is, IMHO, important.
• etc.

looks perfect, isn't it? even the markets played to my day-trading favor and 'produced' huuuuge volatility to give me a chance to profit from the big daily moves :o). and what is the result?

on monday i bought some soooo cheap commodities (silver, orange juice, sugar, natural gas, coffee) + made 3 DJIA trades from the tick-chart-window. i've lost 45 €uros as the DJIA didn't like my direction. there was also no big move on that day, so i got wiped-out by usual market 'noise' after the price hit my stop orders. mental result: i was somehow dissapointed as i didn't like that day cycle, but on the other hand, i didn't make any (big) trading mistakes, so i accepted it.

yesterday night was barack hussein obama elected as new u.s. president, so there were big market movements very likely today. i have expected a market rally as obama provides IMHO more hope for peace and friendly developments in the world as his competitor mccain does. japan liked that election outcome and rallied 4.42%, europe didn't. dax -2%, tecdax -4.66% (my limit order near the daily lows was filled, which i liked a lot, because i didn't buy greedy a day earlier after a huge rally near the daily highs and decided to stay out of the market or get that index for a more reasonable price). RING, RING, RING! the bell rings and the u.s. stock-exchanges open its 'doors' => let's watch, decide and trade if the DJIA should provide some trading opportunities :o)).

i made 5 DJIA trades: 4 long; 1 short; 4 small losers; 1 small winner; 1 bad luck as my broker's software (internet connection?) didn't accept a change-order to protect my short-term profit on that trade (i would win $1 instead of losing $14, that means there would not be any significant difference in my P/L statistics anyway :o); as i've expected the market went in that time actually some 80 points higher, but the volatility was too big and my long positions were stopped-out before the price moved significantly higher + before i could increase my trailing-stop orders. btw, i thought that after a short decision phase would the market move much more dynamically into one direction, but it didn't [... the big move came about 2 hours later and it was down]. well, i've lost about €55 and increased my day-trading balance sheet for this week to about 100 €uros (approx. $130). it is not much (and still cheaper than a holiday abroad :-), but consider that i've moved approx. 8 x 9,500 = $ 76,000 on the markets, which would be a lot of money @ an orthodox trading account, isn't it? what about my position trades with commodities + toronto60 index + tecdax index? as for now, they are running pretty well and could win more than my day-trading experiments lost => let's stay a position trader :o)

[... added on thursday 11/06/2008: i've made 11 DJIA trades and moved about 11 x 9,100 = $100,100 on the markets, but the losses were again slightly higher than the wins. IMHO were my wins and losses more the question of luck than of anything else... ]

conclusion: let's stay a position trader + let's keep my office job + let's analyze the markets on the evenings & on the weekends + let's do some fundamental analysis + let's profit from the long-term developments & price movements (instead of tick-chart losses :-)

btw, does it mean that i will never again try any day-trades? no. if sometimes my account size could afford a loss of maybe €50 risk capital AND i should 'accidentally' see some promissing opportunity AND i will be in proper trading mood AND ... AND ... => THEN i could imagine to make a bet and place one order or two in order to pick-up some profits, BUT i DO NOT PLAN to sit down in front of my PC for the sake of day-trading anymore :o)

barack hussein obama

addendum april 2018

just in case you don't know why did the west and its allies in the last 20+ years attack and destroy so many countries (iraq, yugoslavia, afghanistan, lybia, syria, yemen, mali, somalia, ...) which have never threatened the west, the nobel prize laureate for peace, barrack hussein obama, has the answer for you: if you can't buy it, bomb it ....

~~~

poll: is it too late for improvement of the world order? YES/NO ?

i'm not sure, i hope not, but i'm really not sure... why? well, in the last few months we saw just huuuuge bailouts + socialization of losses + government interventions and regulations + an unbelievable increase in money supply all over the world instead of free markets. is there any hope for improvement? yes! yesterday was barack hussein obama elected as the new u.s. president. [btw, who are the strong powers behind him? the kennedy-clan + george soros + zbigniew brzezinski + ??? ok, but is it good or bad for the world? the time will show it :o)]. i hope he will correct few of bush's mistakes and maybe even end the wars on iraq, afghanistan, democracy, terror, ... and reduce budget deficits ... and so on ... that could help a little! but he has to speed up a lot before the winter comes, the kondratieff winter :o((

=> GOOD LUCK, BARACK!

.

folks, abolish the comex!

why? you will not get any silver for its 'paper prices'! in my opinion it is just a pure fraud!

folks, a situation is COMPLETE DIFFERENT when you read about it on the internet than if you are affected yourself!!! well, i've read mogambos essay about that strange comex-silver 'phenomenon' last week (A Bull in a Silver Shop), but today i wanted to buy some physical silver myself ...

SILVER vs. SILVER :o). a pretty safe spread trade? huuuuuuuu? yep! sell physical silver for current market price [@ebay?] and buy silver futures (of course, call for physical delivery instead of cash settlement :-)! jaro, could you repeat that idea once again + speak slowly please as we couldn't get it yet! ok, here we go: in the online shop http://proaurum.de/ of germany's largest precious metals dealer was not a single silver product today, therefore i've visited their office in munich off-line today. available silver products? there was just 1 (= ONE !!!) item on the 'we offer today' list: the 1 oz britannia coin. price 15.84 €uros, which is about twice the comex-future price (today morning 7.80 €uros or $9.80). folks, it is 103% more!!! btw, when will the (physical) market abolish comex? when will the fundamentals win against market manipulation? well, britannia is more expensive than american eagle or vienna philharmonic (if available they would probably cost about 12-13 euros (i.e. still + 50%-66%)), but anyway ...

last time i have been there the comex silver price was about 10 euros (at that time maybe $15 or $14) and i could buy many different silver bars and coins. the 1 oz coins (eagles, maple leafs, philharmonics) with a spread of about 30% to paper-silver-price. that is still a lot, but let's consider the small size, costs for minting, transport, 7% tax, sale-commissions, ... so you should not be too angry, it could be worse ... and yes, it is worse now, MUCH WORSE! what could we learn?

limited supply + huge demand = high price

hmmmmm, it looks like if the markets 'work' correctly, isn't it? so why in the hell do we need all these huge government interventions, regulations, bailouts + manipulations all over the western world?


to do: document my trades ... toronto60, silver (again!), nat. gas (position increased)

my bet: commodities long

to do: ... document trades ....

orange juice, silver, natural gas, suggar, coffee, 3 x DJIA, ...

market outlook 2009+

folks, the crashy year 2008 is over soon, here is my guess for the middle/long term market outlook :o)):

stocks: up! i think we will see an inflationary rally

folks, today = 2 months later = 12/27/2008 i'm not sooo sure if this scenario happens. why? well, despite the unbelievable huuuuge amounts of money pumped into the financial markets by governments + their small dirty central banks, the economy continues contracting itself, people stop buying unnecessary things like new cars, bigger TV-screens, new houses or even new kitchens ... well, if the companies stop making profits or even start making losses, that would probably lower the stock prices even from the current low, low, low levels! IMHO are the governments + their small dirty central banks all over the freaking world doing big, big mistakes with all their dirty bail-outs and market regulations ... i'm afraid that their stupid actions will cause a much more severe recession/depression as we would face without any interference. or do u believe that taking the money from the competent people and companies (tax payers) and giving it to incompetent people and companies (the bailouted banks, car makers etc.) in order to let them compete against the competent ones again will resolve any problems?

don't forget: if printing money were the solution to all economic malinvestments + mistakes zimbabwe were the best country on earth! but it isn't and it is probably the most poor and ruined country instead! hell, why want all this small corrupt politicians in western europe + usa try the zimbabwean way?

commodities: up! a lot! inflation and supply/demand driven

bonds: down! it could be the next bubble which pops! why? interest rates are artificially low and the bonds currently so high; the western governments are so heavily and hopeless over indebted that i do not believe they will pay their debts back one day ;o(. i would rather expect some monetary reform after a sad period of hyperinflation. do YOU see any kind of security in this so 'secure' investments? btw, i do not track bonds closely, so don't think too long about my outlook :O)

inflation: UP, UP, UP! no wonder facing all these huge bailouts in the financial sector. what do i think about the increase in money supply (keyword M3)? don't ask me that, i would have to cry! ok. so what about the price of beer @ oktoberfest or about a price of coffee in the local outdoor swimming pool in few years? don't ask me that either :o((

=> welcome to the INFLATIONARY stocks and assets price rally !

=> welcome to the crack-up boom !!
=> welcome to the kondratieff winter :o(( !!!

=> welcome to state controls + regulations + swindling democracy all over the freaking world !!!!

well, what could that mean for people like you and me? IMHO will the middle class probably dissappear :-((. but don't worry too much about that! we will not dissapear from this freaking planet really, we will just join the poor class ... it could be worse :o)

questions of the day: how long could that false boom last? when will we see not just a default of some 'unimportant' nations (iceland, hungary, ukraine, pakistan = 4 in the last few weeks!!!), but also a bankruptcy of some 'imortant' western economies (US, UK, germany, italy, spain, france, ...)? when will all that fiat paper money fail? when will a major monetary reform arrive on planet earth again? do u have enough gold + silver ALREADY?

how could you protect yourself and your family against all that financial mess out there and prepare somehow for that (not really nice) scenario? it is still the same: buy [@ these low, low, low prices!] as much gold, silver, commodities like oil + agriculture, energy + 'green' energy as u can afford and you will be very, very glad. or don't and u won't ;o))

=> this investing stuff is sooooo easy !!!