GOLD rally in august AGAIN ???

august 2001, august 2003, august 2005, august 2007, AUGUST 2009 (!!!)

hell, that would be soooooo great for my gold + silver + energy + commodity stocks based portfolio

well, we will discover that soooon

btw, what's your opinion?

take share ,

jaro

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folks, few interesting comments taken from the corresponding discussion pages @ www.informedtrades.com):

jaro, you think gold rallies in august for seasonal/cyclical reasons? any particular fundamental cause you think?of course i am still a gold bug...not sure if it will rally in august, but i think we will see a big rally by end of year....also, COMEX is looking to change rules so that futures can deliver GLD ETFs instead of actual bullion upon delivery. so i think physical delivery is becoming more important.

Posted Today at 09:11 AM by Simit Patel

... the most often mentioned seasonal reason for gold is prolly the wedding season in india, who (which?) is the major consumer of physical gold worldwide, i think ... but there is for sure every year a wedding season in india, isn't it? but why did gold/silver rally just in years with odd numbers and not in even years? that will prolly forever stay mr. market's secret ... unless someone finds out some major relationship to the moon calendar or the like good luck,j.

Posted Today at 11:29 AM by jaro g.

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to see all comments, pls visit the informedtrades website here.

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ps: how much is 1 oz gold in USD?

• july 17, 2009 = $935.0 ........... today
• dec 31, 2009 = $1,096.5
• dec 31, 2010 = ?
• dec 31, 2011 = ??
• dec 31, 2012 = ???
• ...

addendum 12-31-2009: what abt recapitulation at the end of the year?

yep, gold rallied a lot in fall & winter and it has reached a new all-time-high at $1,226 on december, 3rd ... well, after that it fell a little bit and closed the year 17.27% higher than in july at $1,096.5 (~spot price @ kitco.com, btw, all 6 websites i looked for the closing price had slightly different quotes => crazy!). anyway, the fundamentals for gold have improved since then (more paper money out there, decreasing gold production (peak gold!), increasing (investment) demand, central banks are buyer on balance, etc.) => therefore let's enjoy the GOLDEN RALLY in 2010 as well

of course, do not forget the SILVER!

source: www.goldalert.com/_layouts/images/gold_bars.jpg

folks, abolish the comex!

why? you will not get any silver for its 'paper prices'! in my opinion it is just a pure fraud!

folks, a situation is COMPLETE DIFFERENT when you read about it on the internet than if you are affected yourself!!! well, i've read mogambos essay about that strange comex-silver 'phenomenon' last week (A Bull in a Silver Shop), but today i wanted to buy some physical silver myself ...

SILVER vs. SILVER :o). a pretty safe spread trade? huuuuuuuu? yep! sell physical silver for current market price [@ebay?] and buy silver futures (of course, call for physical delivery instead of cash settlement :-)! jaro, could you repeat that idea once again + speak slowly please as we couldn't get it yet! ok, here we go: in the online shop http://proaurum.de/ of germany's largest precious metals dealer was not a single silver product today, therefore i've visited their office in munich off-line today. available silver products? there was just 1 (= ONE !!!) item on the 'we offer today' list: the 1 oz britannia coin. price 15.84 €uros, which is about twice the comex-future price (today morning 7.80 €uros or $9.80). folks, it is 103% more!!! btw, when will the (physical) market abolish comex? when will the fundamentals win against market manipulation? well, britannia is more expensive than american eagle or vienna philharmonic (if available they would probably cost about 12-13 euros (i.e. still + 50%-66%)), but anyway ...

last time i have been there the comex silver price was about 10 euros (at that time maybe $15 or $14) and i could buy many different silver bars and coins. the 1 oz coins (eagles, maple leafs, philharmonics) with a spread of about 30% to paper-silver-price. that is still a lot, but let's consider the small size, costs for minting, transport, 7% tax, sale-commissions, ... so you should not be too angry, it could be worse ... and yes, it is worse now, MUCH WORSE! what could we learn?

limited supply + huge demand = high price

hmmmmm, it looks like if the markets 'work' correctly, isn't it? so why in the hell do we need all these huge government interventions, regulations, bailouts + manipulations all over the western world?


to do: document my trades ... toronto60, silver (again!), nat. gas (position increased)

who understands the silver market?

as started yesterday, silver continues to live its own life! heeeeee? didn't you see its crazy movements 'against' its usual correlation buddies gold (direct corr.) + usd (indirect corr.) => ???

what could be the reason for that? my guess is, that SILVER IS ALREADY SOOOOO CHEAP, that there is not a single person on this whole freaking planet who would sell silver futures bellow its current price – no matter if gold is faaaaalling further or even the usd riiiising against eur, yen!

btw, please, please do not forget, that we speak just about the price of ‘paper silver’! you will have big, big difficulties to buy physical silver like 1 oz coins or bars at any precious metals dealer as the supply is death. even if they had some silver you will be overwhelmed about its spread to current paper price and ask yourself: ‘damned hell, why do the comex guys provide (+ manipulate?) the price of paper silver and not the price of real silver which i have to pay if i wanna get some silver and thus protect myself against state ordered robbery (=inflation) and a sad poor house future of myself?’ ask them :o))

ok, my both silver positions were stopped out with a small profit yesterday, so let’s wait for a new market entry. when? if gold would make me that favor and fall to the area of $750 again, maybe that could be a good entry? but don't forget, if the usd is rising against eur, it is not the best time to be (heavily) invested in gold, silver, commodities, …

volkswagen (VW) is back on planet earth ...

as the stock markets stabilized a little and there are not many margin calls in the books of speculators like me (or some heavily capitalized hedge funds :-), these evil guys can hold and increase their VW shorts and bring its share price back to a more realistic level – in the last 4 days lost VW about 40% of its (over-)value as its share price fell from 430 to 230 €uros .... and friday (24.10.2008 to 210 euros. than porsche announced on the weekend that it will increase its share and on monday 27.10.2008 rose VW more than 200% to € 630 and closed @520 euros, a daily gain of 146.62%. next day (28.10.2008) the same game => VW rose in less than a hour from €471 to €1.005 and closed @ 945 euros, which is 81,73% more than yesterday. its market capitalization? 277,83 billion euros. that's a short-squeeze, isn't it?

vw short-squeeze (10 days chart)

... and in the stock heaven again :o)). the possible reasons for that strange development? see my older blogpost.

my trades:

tecdax entered because i thought the stock markets will go up; it didn't; my opinion was wrong; my tight stop order was processed => ok, that's trading

toronto60, entered because i thought the stock markets will go up; it didn't; my opinion was wrong; my tight stop order was processed => ok, that's trading

+ 17 DJIA trades: i had 9 winners and 8 losers today, my best trade was a winner with $55, the worst trade was a loss of $26.

in the beginning i've lost few bucks as the market didn't like my opinion. then came my big, big trade and i could make up all the losses from tecdax, toronto60 and todays DJIA trades and had a small profit in my CFD-indexes-window. later i made some break, this time probably in the right moment as the market started to fall down after i've made nice profits on the long side for some time ... after the break and @ a much lower level i've bet that the DJIA will recover again (do you still remember our PPT?), but it didn't and even fell like a stone from its weaky stock heaven, so i've lost mostly all profits and decided to quit my DJIA trading with a small 'symbolic' gain of €2.31 => that's ok, that's trading :-))

item--------------: DJIA >> position closed #4

units--------------: 1

order type--------: market (buy) / limit (sell)

trade type--------: long

entry date--------: 10/21/2008, 19:14

entry price-------: 9,111

initial stop-loss--: 9,091 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)

new stop-loss----: 9,112 > 9,166

exit date---------: 10/21/2008, 19:25

exit price---------: 9,166

profit (loss) in %-: 0.6 %

profit (loss)------: $55

reason why + strategy: trying to trade some big movements in late market trading lessons learned: market liked my bet and moved in right direction; later i could grab few moe points on the way up => ok :-)