Wednesday, October 15, 2008

fear instaed of greed!

folks, after 2 crazy days on the stock markets (on monday +10% , on tuesday +4%) is the rationality back! why? i don't know, maybe all these folks out there understood that printing paper money alone will probably not solve a crisis which is caused by too much paper money and thus resulting malinvestments. maybe some of them were in zimbabwe and saw that even printing much, much, much more damned paper money doesn't solve fundamental economic problems and thought: why should it help in europe and/or usa? maybe have the markets consider that state owned financial industry (usa bought shares in 9 of its major banks; UK even more; i'm not sure about germany, but here had especially the partially state ownwed banks the biggest financial difficulties in the last few months and have already been bail-outed). well, maybe some of the folks thought about future economic prospects, about future earnings of the most companies and as we are already facing a huge recession, they cosidered to press the 'SELL' button instead of buy any share ... ==> dax -6.5%; dow jones -7.87%, s&p500 -9.03%; nasdaq100 -8.82%

as always there is an exception and that is again the lonely star on german stock heaven = volkswagen. it rose by 11.03% TODAY which add more market capitalization for its shareholders than the whole former competitor and my employer bmw is worth ...


item--------------: coffee >> position closed
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / limit (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/10/2008, 17:30
entry price-------: 115.5 cents
initial stop-loss--: 109.4 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 111.1 > 115.6
exit date---------: 10/15/2008, 15:56
exit price---------: 115.6
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------: 0.1 => $ 10
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is coffee so unbelievable cheap that i will bet on its price recovery! well, coffee moved up above 120 cents since i've entered this trade, but i didn't take higher profits as i've believed it cannot fall bellow my limit because even the seasonals are so positive just now ... well, coffee could and did and crashed together with stocks and the most other commodities (margin calls @ overleveraged hedge funds?)
lessons re-learned: the price can fell much deeper as i could imagine, this time i was able to buy a new long position on a much lower level, let's hope it will hold on and rise to 160 cents till the mid-winter :o)


item--------------: coffee
units--------------: 1
order type--------: limit
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/15/2008, 19:51
entry price-------: 112.9 cents
initial stop-loss--: 107.9 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 108.8 > 113.0
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is coffee so unbelievable cheap that i will bet on its price recovery! coffee crashed today together with stocks and the most other commodities (margin calls @ overleveraged hedge funds?), so i've pick it up at a much lower level (bottom picking!) and now i do hope it will hold on and rise to 160 cents till the mid-winter :o)
lessons re-learned: the price can fell much deeper as i would expect. folks, i did not think it will fall so deep and allow me this cheap entry ...


uppdate on 2008 financial crisis:
just in case you've forgotten our former analysis (+ possible solution :-) of this financial misery, here is the link4u: http://jarogruber.blogspot.com/2008/10/2008-financial-crisis-not-just-subprime.html
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