Tuesday, October 21, 2008

who understands the silver market?

as started yesterday, silver continues to live its own life! heeeeee? didn't you see its crazy movements 'against' its usual correlation buddies gold (direct corr.) + usd (indirect corr.) => ???

what could be the reason for that? my guess is, that SILVER IS ALREADY SOOOOO CHEAP, that there is not a single person on this whole freaking planet who would sell silver futures bellow its current price – no matter if gold is faaaaalling further or even the usd riiiising against eur, yen!
btw, please, please do not forget, that we speak just about the price of ‘paper silver’! you will have big, big difficulties to buy physical silver like 1 oz coins or bars at any precious metals dealer as the supply is death. even if they had some silver you will be overwhelmed about its spread to current paper price and ask yourself: ‘damned hell, why do the comex guys provide (+ manipulate?) the price of paper silver and not the price of real silver which i have to pay if i wanna get some silver and thus protect myself against state ordered robbery (=inflation) and a sad poor house future of myself?’ ask them :o))

ok, my both silver positions were stopped out with a small profit yesterday, so let’s wait for a new market entry. when? if gold would make me that favor and fall to the area of $750 again, maybe that could be a good entry? but don't forget, if the usd is rising against eur, it is not the best time to be (heavily) invested in gold, silver, commodities, …

volkswagen (VW) is back on planet earth ...
as the stock markets stabilized a little and there are not many margin calls in the books of speculators like me (or some heavily capitalized hedge funds :-), these evil guys can hold and increase their VW shorts and bring its share price back to a more realistic level – in the last 4 days lost VW about 40% of its (over-)value as its share price fell from 430 to 230 €uros .... and friday (24.10.2008 to 210 euros. than porsche announced on the weekend that it will increase its share and on monday 27.10.2008 rose VW more than 200% to € 630 and closed @520 euros, a daily gain of 146.62%. next day (28.10.2008) the same game => VW rose in less than a hour from €471 to €1.005 and closed @ 945 euros, which is 81,73% more than yesterday. its market capitalization? 277,83 billion euros. that's a short-squeeze, isn't it?

... and in the stock heaven again :o)). the possible reasons for that strange development? see my older blogpost.

my trades:
tecdax entered because i thought the stock markets will go up; it didn't; my opinion was wrong; my tight stop order was processed => ok, that's trading

toronto60, entered because i thought the stock markets will go up; it didn't; my opinion was wrong; my tight stop order was processed => ok, that's trading

+ 17 DJIA trades: i had 9 winners and 8 losers today, my best trade was a winner with $55, the worst trade was a loss of $26.
in the beginning i've lost few bucks as the market didn't like my opinion. then came my big, big trade and i could make up all the losses from tecdax, toronto60 and todays DJIA trades and had a small profit in my CFD-indexes-window. later i made some break, this time probably in the right moment as the market started to fall down after i've made nice profits on the long side for some time ... after the break and @ a much lower level i've bet that the DJIA will recover again (do you still remember our PPT?), but it didn't and even fell like a stone from its weaky stock heaven, so i've lost mostly all profits and decided to quit my DJIA trading with a small 'symbolic' gain of €2.31 => that's ok, that's trading :-))

item--------------: DJIA >> position closed #4
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / limit (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/21/2008, 19:14
entry price-------: 9,111
initial stop-loss--: 9,091 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 9,112 > 9,166
exit date---------: 10/21/2008, 19:25
exit price---------: 9,166
profit (loss) in %-: 0.6 %
profit (loss)------: $55
reason why + strategy: trying to trade some big movements in late market trading lessons learned: market liked my bet and moved in right direction; later i could grab few moe points on the way up => ok :-)

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