Tuesday, July 26, 2011

wild australian cannibals!

eat or be eaten? ive met wild australian cannibals 2day and survived! instead of eating their lunch @ the investor event in munich, they really preferred their own species instead :-)

crazy mining business, focus minerals eats crescent gold :-). well, im shareholder of both of them, so what?

poll ~ what do u prefer:
A) more details abt focus/crescent?
B) ticket to hell?
one two three four... baaaang!

... B? it is not that easy to come to hell, u have 2 deserve it first, my dear 

ok, the focus minerals (FML) ~ crescent gold (CRE) issue is basically abt the combination of these 2 australian 100k oz gold producers in order to build up an +200k oz p.a. producer overnight, u know? the focus guys have cash, the crescent guys need it badly, what a coincidence!

of course, a combination of businesses isnt a bad thing per se, the take-over price matters. but a perceived price next to nothing hurts like hell, im going tell ya! it is 50% below the last crescent financing i participated in (AUD 0.11 per share in january i think) ... btw, ive started 2 buy crescent shares in march 2008 when the gold price was prolly $700 - $800 and increased my holdings few times after that ('bottom fishing') .... my overall investment is waaaay down, approx -40% on average (in €uro terms) even after the smooth increase in the last 2 weeks. what abt the gold price? hmmm, a next high-high-higher all-time-high $1,619 today ==> what went wrong @ crescent? well, the management made few mistakes, the production  operations werent always that easy&cheap going business as expected and then there were the massive rains in australia which 'brought' crescent high additional expenses while the income completely disappeared for some time ... bad luck this time, isnt it?

so what 2 do? as for me, it makes no sense to wait for some 'divine' rescue or some higher offer for crescent, so ive already signed the take-over forms for all 3 broker accounts i have the crescent shares in [~1.18 crescent shares for 1 focus share] and lets hope that even if ive initially invested approx 3times as much money in crescent than in focus, the opportunities which the combined company doubtless provides (cashflow from 4 producing mines, huuuuge pipeline of exploration projects, solid financial position, etc) will show up in the share price soon :-). damn, in situations like that im happy ive invested my money in +100 mining companies and not only in 3 or 4. my sweet readers, u never know which company will be flooded by cash and which one by rain :cool:

btw, a simmilar 'next to nothing' take-over between 2 of my existing portfolio positions happened in 2008/2009 when continuum resources was eaten by fortuna silver. what abt the result? the new company managed to become one of my best performing assets and my cheapest fortuna purchase (from december 2008) multiplied already more than 10 times since then (in €uro terms again :-)

good luck my australian cannibals, good luck!

you still wanna go to hell? are u also 100% sure u will not turn back and run away when in front of that strange hole pictured above? fine, just ask me ... after all, there must be some reason why the focus/crescent directors gave their email addresses to me, u see?

anything else? coming soon or never 

addendum august 3, 2011: folks, in life nothing happens by accident, nothing! the gold price climbed up to $1,672 intra-day, the crescent share price reached the focus share price, my wife + myself were in the hell! 

well, there were soooo many folks in the centre of munich 2day and then such a bad, bad, bad luck happened to me! ive bumped into my crazy wife ... among 1.3 million people ... damn! there was no rescue 4 me, i had 2 take her 4 dinner, so we went into the cellar restaurant below the city hall, looked for a table and found it in the heaven & hell part of that strange place ... we sat down, looked at the paintings on the wall ... it was the hell! what a coincidence!
can u see my poor suffering soul over there? lol

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