Saturday, October 11, 2008

crashy friday? it doesn't matter! few bucks arrived on my account, let's trade again :-)

what about the markets on friday? crazy, crazy, crazy! i've hoped so much that the markets will stop crashing, unfortunately they didn't. today it doesn't really matter if the reason for all these sell-offs was the panic and overreaction of western central banks with their stupid cut of rates or if it was something else. however, i still hope this financial crisis will not turn into a crisis of global economy ...

btw, the markets just now (friday morning):

japan -9%
germany -9% (here are again 29 of 30 stocks negative. as always, just the lonely star on the stock heaven is not. long last the volkswagen bubble, +19.9% today!)

usa will start in 3 hours, but as it crashed already yesterday (-7%), IMHO is there no reason to crash today again ...
well, the u.s. markets crashed anyway. dow fell bellow 7900 points to its lowest level since 2003. thx to the famous PPT there was so much crazy buying in the last 2 trading hours that it could move the index about 500 points higher to the weekly close of 8,451.


folks, i'm not sure about the end of the dollar rally (against the major currencies), but i'm still very bullish on commodities! just look at their current prices (orange juice, sugar, coffee, silver, nat. gas, zinc, ...), they are near their multi-year-lows ... and now look at the HUUUUGE amounts of paper and/or electronic money which was added to our planet in the last few days, weeks, months, ... , years (do u still remember greenspan's 1% rate orgy?). pls note that on the other side, there was by far not such an increase in goods + services => ??? yep, you are right! the price of 'real' assets will probably increase significantly .... ok, let's buy them :o) .
and what about the lessons learned from my previous failure? yep, even when price of something is unbelievable low, i will still use stop-loss-limits to protect my trading capital! stocks can easily fall to zero (in case of company bankruptcy) and commodities can fall much lower as my margin account could handle => therefore note that in my trading journal the 'initial stop-loss' - field must never be empty :-)


... to do: my 3 trades : o-juice, nat. gas, coffee, ... ok, now is sunday night and the cmc-trading platform online again ... why do they need every weekend to do their stupid software updates? what about people who would like to make their market analysis on the weekend and place their orders???


item--------------: orange juice
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/10/2008, 17:28
entry price-------: 77.1 cents
initial stop-loss--: 73.3 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 77.3 > 80.3
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is orange juice so unbelievable cheap that i would never believe that. folks, the 52 weeks high is 160,80 which is more then double the current price. orange juice is NOT a stock of a company which could go bankrupt, is it? let's bet on its price recovery!
lessons learned:


item--------------: natural gas
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/10/2008, 17:21
entry price-------: 7.08
initial stop-loss--: 6.69 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is coffee so unbelievable cheap that i will bet on its price recovery!
lessons learned:


item--------------: coffee
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/10/2008, 17:30
entry price-------: 115.5 cents
initial stop-loss--: 109.4 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 111.1 > 115.6
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is natural gas so unbelievable cheap that i will bet on its price recovery!
lessons learned:


update on 2008 financial crisis:
a small break on monday: http://jarogruber.blogspot.com/2008/10/crazy-people.html
... and the crisis continues on wednesday: http://jarogruber.blogspot.com/2008/10/fear-instaed-of-greed.html
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