inflation, inflation, inflation ... in money supply

(wanna see the chart abt. the u.s. monatry base since 1920? just follow this link, i'm sure you're shocked like hell now!)

folks, that's unbelivable, just watch the estimated global currency in circulation (1971-2009):

=> watch out! die inflationary monster out there :-) ... btw, do you have enough gold, silver, real estate, farm land, picasso on the wall and all the other hard assets ALREADY?

why? because our chief monetary advisors act like that:
the european money-printer (ECB) are not any better than ben bernanke :-(. btw, bernanke's helicopter can't avoid recession and in reality he would need many B52 bomber to dispose all that money he already added to the system :(

or would you like the chief money printer appearing like this?

... or even as god and money as our single religion? no, that would be too much, isn't it?

Hölle, so viele neue nette Hinweise! Das Problem ist nur, Bernanke (Busch + Obama-Administration) zu werfen, dass. das Geld vor allem an der Wall Street, nicht an der Hauptstraße! btw, es in Europa gibt keinen Unterschied, dass. seltsame Vertriebssystem :-(

Warum müssen wir Steuern zahlen zulassen, dass. Leute? es ist unsere (Steuer-) Geld, nicht wahr? Der homo sapiens ist soooo dumm o:(

fundamentale vs. technische analyse ... ausstiegssignal aus longpositionen?

hai leute,

aufgrund des immer noch nicht komplett verarbeiteten traumas vom letzten oktober 'dank' dem crash in aktien / rohstoffen / eigenem portfolio / realwirtschaft / usw. habe ich mir in der letzten zeit des öfteren gedanken gemacht, ob es dieses jahr wieder so ähnlich laufen würde ... und ob jetzt der zeitpkt wäre, wo ich alle meine positionen auflösen sollte und in cash (reimt sich auf crash!) gehen sollte :o)

na ja, ich bin rein fundamental orientierter investor und so wie ich die welt sehe, steuern wir auf eine (hyper-)inflationäre rally in harten vermögenswerten (~sachwerten) zu und ich glaube auch nicht, daß die haupttreiber dieser inflation, also die hoffnungslos überschuldeten (westlichen) regierungen und ihre kleinen, dreckigen, korrupten zentralbanken in naher zukunft das ruder herumreißen möchten u. einen anderen kurs einschlagen werden ...

daß jetzt nach wochenlangem freien fall der USD ggü. seinem papier-kumpel €uro etwas stärker wurde und viele rohstoffe und rohstoffaktien doch schon verdammt schlimme kurseinbrüche erlebt haben, ändert meine weltanschauung jetzt auch nicht wirklich :-).

ok, somit bleibe ich bei meinen gold- / silber- / rohstoffpositionen drin u. schaue zu, was kommt! immerhin dürfte es diesmal keine großen liquiditätsgetriebenen zwangsverkäufe wie im oktober 2008 geben, dafür haben unsere inflationisten [~gelddrucker] genügend kohle in die finanzbranche gepumpt, oder? ob ich mit meiner entscheidung glück / recht haben werde, wird sich sicherlich bald zeigen, wollen wir doch das beste 4 mein portfolio hoffen, stimmt's?

frage des tages: sehen die chartisten aus der be24-community irgendwelche ein-/ausstiegssignale? und sehen die anderen fundamentalisten noch paar weitere wesentliche punkte, die ich (noch) nicht erkannt habe?

btw, in meinem blogbeitrag auf informedtrades.com habe ich heute die meinung von jim rogers (gemäß jack schwager's interview aus'm jahr 1988) zu chartanalyse ergänzt, vielleicht ist es für einige interessant, was die 3 dort erwähnten ausnahme-trader über chartanalyse gesagt haben :-)

folks, IMHO is larry williams both, a technically based trader who uses the daily bar charts to identify his entry + exit points and a person, who calls the most chart patterns and the most technical indicators mumbo jumbo or the like ...

i hope it helps a lot! at least will my blog here start with a posting about a super duper commodity + futures trader :-)
greetings from munich,
jaro

addendum oct 21, 2009 => bruce kovner

folks, i do actually read my InformedPoints hunt prize - jack schwager's market wizards and look: larry williams is not the only top trader who considers technical analysis mumbo jumbo :-)

bruce kovner also is! "technical analysis, i think, has a great deal that is right and a great deal that is mumbo jumbo."

well, why mumbo jumbo? ... "technical analysis tracks the past; it does not predict the future" ... he urges the readers 2 "use their own intelligence 2 draw conclusions about what the past activity of some traders may say about the future activity of other traders."

ok, and why is technical analysis also right? "technical analysis reflects the vote of the entire marketplace and, therefore, does pick up unusual behavior."

...addendum oct 27, 2009 => jim rogers

hell, is there any top trader who believes in technical analysis out there? do u know what did jim rogers answer 2 the question what is his opinion about chart reading? "i haven't met a rich technician. excluding, of course, technicians who sell their technical services and make a lot of money."

well, he still uses charts himself .... "yes, i look them every week. i use them for knowledge, to see what is going on. i learn a lot about what is going on in the world by looking charts. ... i look at charts to see what HAS HAPPENED."

will we ever see gold below $1.000 again?

hell, hell, hell!

unbelievable! mr. market reads the comments 2 my blog posts, doesn't he? well, i think he liked my yesterday's comment soooo much that he didn't wait a single day and ran immediately in 'my' blindly anticipated direction (only my 'stomach-feeling' decided, no indicators, no stats, no analysts, no market data, nothing but my intuition :-)

btw, did someone watch the commodity markets today? e.g. base metals or agricultural products? no? well, the most stuff increased by 2.4% to 3.5% in a single day. damned! that's 3.5 per cent more than on friday!!! crazy, isn't it? hmmmmm, did the commodities lost their confidence in fiat money today completely? will homo sapiens follow their opinion soon?

folks, it's an inflationary hard assets rally, i think :)

some folks speak already about gold @1,750 dollars? that would be so nice for all gold bugs out there and especially very, very nice for u.s.a. --- they still possess the biggest part of world's gold :-(

ps: it is hard to admit, but the u.s. government is in my opinion much smarter than its reputation :-)

my market outlook ...

folks, i do not think/feel all financial assets will crash this time as they did last october (stocks, interest rates, commodities, real estate, ...)
i think we will see an inflationary rally in commodities and the steady rising gold price remembers us about that inflationary scenario, doesn't it? (some older guys often mention the 70ties in that inflationary context => ?). in my opinion we will prolly also see the demise of the USD soon as the world will not for ever deliver products & services to usa in exchange for self-printed green papers ... btw, the €uro is not any better, so i further think there will be some next monetary reform which will re-animate gold/silver backed currency/currencies again.

bonds? i do not consider bonds in my 'universe' because they are too boring for me + my account is not properly capitalized for bond investments + in an inflationary scenario are bonds the worst solution possible, so why to think about them?
stocks? i'm very bullish on precious metals (pm), so i'm even more bullish on pm-stocks, but why? is it just because i'm already so heavily invested or is there any fundamental reason for further increase? i'm really not sure ... unlike the most other gold bugs i even do not consider gold @ $1.000 cheap (you still remember my gold-price-manipulation blog post?). of course, there is the huuuuuge danger of inflation where all hard assets should perform well against paper assets (cash, bonds, today's low interest rate bank accounts, ...), especially well should perform silver (poor man's gold ) ... what about general stock markets like djia, s&p 500, dax? hmmmm, on the one hand there will always be some hot stories/technologies out there which will perform phenomenally (at the moment prolly batteries, lithium, electric cars,

green energy + pm explorers) and on the other hand the major stock indexes contain also many commodity stocks (e.g. with alcoa, chevron + exxon is dow by 10% commodity related :), thus i do not think stocks will drop in price soooo dramatically as last october as there was no money in the markets at that time and many positions have been liquidated at any price because of margin calls etc.
otherwise, stock prices will reflect the development of corporate earnings in the long run, here i'm really sceptical and i think the recent upswing on the markets since march moved the prices far too high, esp. the financial stocks are IMHO sooooooo overvalued, but i wouldn't go short... we never know how much money will the governments and their small dirty central banks add to the system and who will directly receive that new money next time ... maybe the banks/insurances again?
ps: i always look for purchase opportunities in the stock markets and always have few stocks on my watch list where i only wait for some fresh money to buy them, but not now! i've invested the major part of my remaining funds before my summer vacation between may and august [by some coincidence of luck & fate it was just few weeks/months before mining stocks really took off :-)] as i've been waiting for the gold rally to come in august, but there is not a single 'i-really-want-to-buy' stock on my list now ... are stocks too expensive already? nevertheless i'm not going to sell any stocks soon anyway unless the 100-years-dow-gold-indicator tells me to do so, it's an (inflationary) bull market, i think ...
pps:

"No one can know the precise level of net debt at which the United States will lose its reputation but a few more years like this one and we will find out." — Warren Buffett

"Fiscally, we are in uncharted territory." — Warren Buffett, August 19, 2009

(illustration by lara tomlin)

addendum, november 16, 2009:

folks, i was sooooooo damned right on the markets this time and so is my gold + silver + commodities portfolio, huhuuuuu!

i'm not sure if it was just question of luck, but the commodity and stock markets tweeted that since weeks to me ~ they rose like hell no matter how disastrous the economy news was ... so i thougt the folks out there will buy anything at any price just to get rid of their paper money :-)

well, IMHO gold below $1,000 is history => WE ARE IN THE EARLY PHASE OF AN INFLATIONARY HARD ASSETS RALLY !!!

diversification? no! all-time-high instead :o)

folks, you still remember i told u not to diversify but to buy just the 'right' securities, do u? well, diversification makes sense just 4 folks who DO NOT KNOW what's right and what is not, which is prolly true for the most folks out there on the financial markets :-)

i wanted 2 tell u about the all-time-high in my gold-silver-commodities investment account already 3 or 4 days ago but couldn't find any time 2 do so. well, as the gold/silver price continued to move further upstairs, so did my portfolio :-). even today reached 20 out of my 123 positions their 52 weeks highs and few others are not far away from their yearly highs as well, most of them are commodity stocks, of course :o). could it be that it's the end of the game now and it's a time to sell everything? i don't think so as many of that stocks are still significantly below their summer 2008 levels, which was, of course, before that damned crashy october 2008 (pls, pls never come back!), so there is still some hope and still some space for some further increase, i believe ... so let's use the famous dow-gold-ratio 2 determine when is the right time to sell :-)

i'm not sure if we will see an inflationary rally in price of everything besides the soooo weak USD or just an inflationary rally in gold / silver / hard assets / commodities and a crash in financial (paper) assets soon? hmmm, there is so much damned paper money out there, isn't it? it is not like the damned dreams-destroying october 2008, is it? but anyway: good-bye fiat money, good-bye corrupt governments, good-bye small dirty central banks! GO, GOLD BUGS, GO !!!

bad luck this time ...

folks, i had not much luck with my 2 recent stock picks ...

formation capital did nothing since i've bought their shares 3 weeks ago, so what about my finally producing gold mine and former explorer petaquilla? don't ask that ... even if the gold price reached all-time-high last week their share price fell to multi-years-lows :-((

hell, did i understand their latest news about financing & debt reduction through 'senior secured notes' of its own management somehow wrong or not at all?

hmmmm, that mistake hurts a lot even if the most other gold/silver stocks in my portfolio increased analog their peer groups HUI, XAU significantly and thus my portfolio is not far away from its in september reached all-time-high

btw, i have few contracts of orange juice in my trading account ... aaaaand orange juice advanced more than 10% on friday! damn, why do i also have natural gas? its fall reduced my orange juice profits by 50%. folks, good luck with your own trading / investing ...

ps: did u drink some orange juice already today?

no beer @oktoberfest :o(

outside?

inside!

unbelievable! you go to the prolly biggest beer drinking event in the whole freaking world and you cannot get a beer there? well, it was a sunny saturday evening and soooooo many earthlings out there, but anyway, shame on you, munich, shame on you!

well, i've got visitors from bratislava/slovakia yesterday, you know? my old school mate + his girlfriend, so what to do? ok, let's go to oktoberfest in a small group of 3 crazy folks. do you think we got a table in one of the huge beer tents (approx. 10,000 folks) or in one of their sunny open air beer gardens or any damned place in any damned tent there? wrong, wrong, wrong and wrong again, we didn't :-(. well, after a while, in the darkest corner we've found a beer bar where we could get tons of weissbier, the only handicap was we had to stand there or sit on the floor outside as many others did :)

well, then we've left the area and here we go: in the 1st nearby pub (prolly also in all nearby pubs i think) there was the oktoberfest spirit caught and bundled inside! yes, we got a place at the oktoberfest-style table, saw all that folksy dressed bavarians and even tourists, got more than enough beer in the famous 1L steins ... btw, did u know that all that steins are produced in austria? shame on you, munich, shame on you again! anything else? yep, we have met 3 funny u.s. guys from colorado, talked a lot, watched pictures, drunk a lot of beer and sweet jägermeister liquor all together (alcohol alarm! do not try that combination :). well, at the next table there was a happy drunken couple going to perform a live sex show or the like ... we didn't wait till they actually started, she wasn't pretty anyway ... and we still wanted to go back to the beer tents :o). on the way, we climbed up all that stupid steps of st. paul's church tower and had a beautiful perspective from its panoramic platform high over munich's roofs out there ... well, than we have decided to move to the city centre and ate some turkish food + drink some more beer on the way. of course, i couldn't make any reasonable picture of the old city hall after that, you know 😀

ps: got all that authentic pictures? hell, that was a hard job to choose + censore + upload them! ENJOY