munich gold show

the next munich gold show is ante portas, my dears => go gold bugs go and let's crash the fraudulent fiat money system now 

golden buddha as a symbol for my faith that the most of my gold / silver / energy / commodities investments will turn out well? well, this buddha is probably not really made of gold, but the future of (most of) my investment decisions really is, you know? hell, i'll maybe look for the golden buddha in my thailand pictures at the weekend, but if not successful i don't think i would look for + digitalize + upload pictures we have made 20 years ago during our 1st visit to thailand ;o)

official information about the edelmetallmesse-event like place, time, speakers, exhibitors and the like is HERE. of course, i will be the full 2 days (friday / saturday) there and post some insights, pictures as the time passes by :-). see you there?

what about a quote? gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar at the top ~ mark twain
why did i tell you this? well, mining success is often about people, you know? so let's show you the management of few of my most important portfolio companies

in the middle keith neumeyer; CEO first majestic silver, my number 1 position by current market value thanks to the stellar company & share price development, acquired in many 'shots' between july 2007 and september 2012. the other 2 guys are richard mayr from argentuminvest + myself, of course

peter hawley, CEO scorpio mining + CEO scorpio gold. well, scorpio mining is my second biggest position right now and the biggest in terms of initial money invested. they have had huuuuge problems as the share price dropped from above CAD 2 below 0.5 this summer and then the founder + former CEO peter took over the company leadership again, the share price today? CAD 1.15 ... well, better than nothing :-)

on the right david hodge, CEO of the zimtu group (zimtu capital corp + commerce resources + western potash + equitas resources + strike graphite + ...)

there have been many many interesting presentations, the one i liked most was the by the famous trend forecaster gerald celente, but i also really liked philipp vorndran, uwe bergold, ralf borgsmüller, rolf nef  and max otte

gerald celente (as i could remember his words, later i will probably upload also 1-3 short videos at youtube, as for now i hope the organisers will upload all speeches to internet themselves): capitalism is dead. we have no capitalism anymore. in capitalism, there would be no bailout of banks like in 2008. we have a merger of state and corporate power, that's the definition of fascism. with our actions today we shape the future/trends of tomorrow ... thus do your best, my dears ... and yes, we can change the future and yes, our impact matters ... thanks gerald for these words, the most people do believe they are too small & to meaningless in order to change anything :-)

of, course i'm not superstitious at all, but as every year i have bought a silver coin with the chinese zodiac sign for the next year in order to bring me some luck at the markets and also few other coins, why not? anyway, welcome 2013, the year of the snake

australian + armenian + somalian silver investment coins

damn, let's show you also the prettiest side of the gold show: hostesses, lotteries, souvenirs and the like. can you imagine that there are folks out there who measure a state of a particular market (segment) by the so called hostess factor? easy, the more hostesses and the more naked they are at a related fair, the more preceded is that market. believe me, there is no bubble in gold, silver and mining stocks yet :-)

tombola at the sigorex newsletter writers group

well, i've also increased my stakes in following companies in november:

• golden predator GPD
• redtail metals SPD
• amerigo resources ARG
• scorpio mining SPM
• aurizon mines ARZ
• alexco resource AXR
• coronet metals CRF
• coeur d'alene mines CDE
• NWM
• nu legacy gold NUG
• CuOro CUO

btw, my coverage of the last year's event is here :-)

eof

8. resource conference

dark clouds in the resource sky ~ entering the maximilian street, the place 2 be 2day

what a paradox! at a day where my resource-based portfolio hits its performance low since late 2008, the cm-equity guys have organized a noble resource conference in munich's noble hotel vier jahreszeiten (4 seasons), hmmmmm, straaange ...

anyway, what did i like most? prolly the market analysis by chris berry, and yes, the opportunity 2 speak 2 fellow investors and 2 representatives of few of my portfolio's companies ...

btw, there were 6 companies presenting 2day:

• zimtu capital ~ here and there, very talented guys who were able 2 recognire trends like precious metals + potash + rare earths + graphite ahead the curve and on top even able to create or invest in such companies at insider /pre-IPO terms ...
• tembo gold ~ tanzania
• majestic gold ~ china
• western potash ~ canada
• great panther silver ~ mexico, i didnt wait for their presentation ... but bought few more shares ;-)
• gran colombia gold ~ colombia

graphit, gold, potash, china, growth, demographics, TIMBI (turkey, india, mexico, brasil, indonesia), ...

btw, thats why my gold/silver/commodity based portfolio is soooooooo low, the mining stocks are (relatively 2 metal prices) almost cheaper than in crashy 2008, just look at the gold-xau-ratio in this chart. dont ask abt the current level, cos stocks went much deeper 2day again, thus the ratio higher, means even more losses 4 my portfolio, as ive mentioned above ;-(

source: facebook

any conclusion, my dears? yep, gonna sell (part of) my silver bullion and buy gold/silver stocks, which already produce significant cash-flow and thus not gonna need any financing, share dilution or the like :-)

anything else? yep, gonna post few pictures later, promised ;) ... here we go, enjoy the first 5 pictures from cm-equity (source: http://www.ressourcenkonferenz.de/) and also mine own pics:

#1

#2

#3 chris berry 

#4 great panther silver

#5

#6

#7

#8 lets walk a little bit outside and move to my office job later :-)

#9

#10

#11

commodity conference

the 7th commodity conference organized by cm-equity took place in munich's best hotel bayerischer hof today as the commodity markets collapsed again ... silver -7%, copper -6%, oil -3%, gold -3%, tin -5%, coffee -3%, ... OMG :-(

well, there were few companies and 2 presentations, few old friends, some new folks and yes, only very very few of all these folks were shocked or concerned abt the disastrous development of commodities and mining stocks in the last week (my stocks on average more than 30% down i guess). u know what does it mean, dont u? of course, these folks are not (significantly) invested in the commodity markets ... how the hell can the commodity & mining stock markets go up if noone invest in them? hmmmmm .... the crashy 2008 is knocking on hells door, isnt it? so, who showed up?

• energold drilling ~ the well known shovel sellers who make money even if the miner doesnt ... of course, they didnt forget 2 mention their partner impact silver ... it didnt help much: energold is -3% and impact is -13% today, my poor portfolio, OMG!
• st. elias mines ~ what a drunken CEO! she was prolly at the oktoberfest before her speach, i cant tell ya if their inka gold property in peru is worth a closer look 
• gianni kovacevic ~ a great presentation abt cop-copp-copper and cycles in the business & financial world ~ im gonna learn more abt gianni + abt his (and my!) mali based gold explorer legend gold + etc etc ... well, his website doesnt tell much
• zimtu capital ~ holding company in mining sector ~ in my portfolio since april 2009
• south boulder ~ my struggling potash explorer in eritrea
• CuOro resources ~ interersting colombian early stage copper story ... if i had any money i would prolly buy few shares, but i hadn't ;-(
• ronald stoeferle ~ in gold we trust ~ presentation

anything else? coming soon or never 😄

rare earths (REE) madness

folks, now i start 2 understand all that REE craziness out there! wanna see the recent price developments? (source: the latest lynas corp quarterly report):

...

RARE EARTHS PRICES

Rare Earths supply constraints has further impacted Rare Earths prices. The average quarterly price for the Mount Weld Rare Earths distribution, on Freight on Board (FOB) China basis, increased to US$ 92.84/kg REO, which is an increase of over 49% across the quarter. Prices continue to increase post quarter end and as at 27 April 2011, the average price for the Mount Weld Rare Earths composition was US$ 160.32/kg on a FOB China basis. 160.32/kg on a FOB China basis.  

...
damned hell! the madness lasts for quite some time now, isnt it? just imagine, the price of lynas' REO composition increased from $13.13 to $160.32 in only 13 months --- what the heck is going on? all of that only because china cornered the REE market (via price dumping and thus destroying almost all foreign production) some time ago?

my REE fighters (rare earth elements):

• commerce resources - canada
• quantum rare earth - usa
• aurizon mines - canada
• zimtu capital - canada
• talon metals - canada
• arafura resources - australia
• lynas corp - australia

go commodities go!

life cycle of the typical mining stock

source: Zimtu Capital Corp. = one of my portfolio companies. btw, zimtu's strategy is to enter the opportunity before the IPO ;-)

folks, mining is soooo exciting, u know? wanna read abt my investment approach?

1.) how 2 choose stocks 2 buy? 

a) well, i follow the markets daily and i also attend a lot of commodity oriented events like the precious metals fair, other (smaller) commodity shows, investor lunch events for few (approx 10 - 20) invited folks and the like. leftovers is easy, i buy stocks i liked most  ... my decisions are based basically on my impression or personal criteria like e.g. company's partners & investors [when folks like rob mcewen, eric sprott, paulson, soros, silver wheaton, pan american silver, xstrata and the like are also invested i believe its almost risk free 2 get involved myself ] ... i dont look-up the company website, financial news, earnings reports and the like at that stage ... of course, im easy 2 impress i think ... after the 1st small 'pilot' buy i subscribe companies newsletters, start following their development and if appropriate i increase my positions 

b) my 2nd decision method: i scroll down my portfolio sorted descending by current position value and where my eyes 'stops' thats the stock i increase my holdings in ~ ie intuition again 

2.) most potential for long term gains?

i think its the explorers & junior mining stocks

3.) why explorers & junior mining stocks?

well, this one is the easiest one! its based on the 'life cycle of the typical mining stock' [~ idea => IPO => discovery => a looooong development period i.e. the 2nd chance 2 buy these stocks cheap => production & cash-flow & dividends = the boring fat cat phase of stock's life] 

cheers 

btw, wanna look-up the mining ABC issues?

ps: ist there any risk involved? yep, of course there is a huuuuge risk involved: the discovery isnt good enough (too low metal grades, too small overall amonunt of the commodity contained, etc), mngmt not able 2 raise enough money 2 build-up a mine, legal/environmental issues, political risk (congo, ecuador, venezuela, russia, ...), management failure, sometimes even pure fraud (eg the only 'asset' is an advertising/promotion campaign), drop in commodity prices so that the production isnt economical anymore and a lot of similar stuff ... well, thats why i own 100+ mining companies and tend rather 2 increase my existing positions in the good ones than 2 buy a new strongly promoted company, u know?

anything else? hmmm, probably one famous quote about the gold mining industry / stocks:

gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar at the top ~ mark twain

#jarobuys yukon-nevada gold (YNG) + quantum rare earth (QRE) and listens 2 monument mining (MMY)

what a day 2day!

during my loooong lunch break ive attended an investors presentation in the centre of munich. bob baldock, the CEO of yukon-nevada gold (YNG) + monument mining (MMY) presented his companies to a small group of (smart?) investors in a nice tourist restaurant across from munich's opera house. the event was organized by my old friends, their german IR agency axino as one of many investors conferences in europe (switzerland + germany?).

you still remember my malaysian gold investment monument mining? i think there is everything fine with them! the production is increasing steadily, the next financing should provide +10m for operating purposes, no tax on profits the next 5 years + stable political / economical situation + many opportunities for future growth in malaysia, ... well, even the the stock price didnt participate in the recent rally of its peer group, i think its gonna 2 be a nice low-risk huge-upside-potential long-term investment :-)

what abt yukon-nevada gold? the company's market capitalization dropped from $300m to $3m approx a year ago, their 4 nevada mines + their mill were closed and the company was nearly bankrupt ... hell, thats a situation when bob steps into a deal! 2day is all environmental permitting in nevada succesfully finished, the company's financing for the next few steps secured, 2 out of 4 mines and the mill producing on initial volumes again and YNG is going 2 increase the ore + gold output soon ... well, i bought few shares at current level (even if the current market capitalization is approx CAD 142m, the share price CAD 0.245 is still cheap i think). so lets subscribe for company's newsletter and follow its development + lets hope there will be a moment in the future when there will be both, some money in my pockets + a reasonable share price in order 2 increase the volume of that new portfolio position. hmmmmm, do u think i should beg my wife + kids for that money again?

after my (at the moment soooo boring + senseless) office job ive attended the 2nd investors meeting ~ the presentation of quantum rare earth (QRE) at the cm-equity office ... did u know i was already an (indirect) shareholder of QRE through my zimtu capital investment? i think the rare earths will soon replace lithium as the next boomimg commodity sector (... oil, gold, silver, zinc, nickel, uranium, sugar, lithium, ... every commodity seems to get its chance 2 perform like crazy for a while and then settle down again :-). well, again, lets subscribe for company's newsletter and follow its development + lets hope there will be a moment in the future when there will be both, some money in my pockets + a reasonable share price in order 2 increase the volume of that portfolio position ...

folks, of course i do know that these young / underdeveloped / underfinanced companies need plenty of additional capital + plenty of time to become succesful fighters out there + provide steady cash-flows, pay dividends etc + etc ... but i simply like these kind of investment stories and the upside potential these companies provide if everything will work out even :-)

welcome + good luck, my sweet portfolio warriors!

addendum 01/04/2010: #jarobuys a small initial position in quantum rare earth (QRE) even if there could be some warrants/options exercise orgy in april which could lead to temporarily lower share price ... but who knows that for sure? folks, IMHO is QRE still cheap like an unwanted pet, so who cares?

btw, ive increased also my stake in the promising junior gold explorer rocmec mining (RMI) a little bit as i believe the current bankruptcy related stock price doesnt reflect the latest positive company developments . btw, i was angry like devil abt my (unknown) fellow programmers at lynx brokers as these stupid idiots cannot compute the margin + commission requirements for penny stocks properly and even if i still had a plus balance of CAD 50 or the like, i couldnt submit the order for multiples of 1,000 shares and thus i had to order also a 900 shares lot because of some stupid 'missing' CAD 7 (seven!). the newbie guy at the telephone hotline couldnt do anything abt that as well ... i hate them 2day, of course 

good luck, my lovely rare earth investment