folks, i'm waiting for an answer to my compliance @ cmc-markets concerning wrong liquidation of orange juice last friday and also for 'arrival' of €303 on my account (today? on monday?). that will increase my all time 'investment' in CFDs to 2525 €uros ...
open positions: none
lessons learned: with such low trading budget like mine it is very, very difficult to try things out (e.g. trading the late movements in DJIA in tick-chart window), because even when the profits/losses through changing luck are not high, unfortunately even a small draw-down of €200 caused the liquidation of my commodity positions at multi-year-lows ;o(( ... silver, natural gas, orange juice, coffee => let's try to 'find' at least 700 - 1,000 additional €uros for this day-trading experiment and hold just few commodity positions till then.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
crazy german folks!
i live among a hoard of brain-death morons! just look @ today's stock market data (dax30):
Allianz +26,24%
METRO +24,50%
Siemens +24,07%
Daimler +21,45%
E.ON . +19,88%
... 23 additional stocks ...
FMC Fresenius +2,74%
Volkswagen -45,29%
what does it mean for the dax30? well, if 29 out of 30 companies made such huge gains today, that means that ... yep, you are right! it is -0,31% today!!!
folks! help, help, help and take me out here :o))
Allianz +26,24%
METRO +24,50%
Siemens +24,07%
Daimler +21,45%
E.ON . +19,88%
... 23 additional stocks ...
FMC Fresenius +2,74%
Volkswagen -45,29%
what does it mean for the dax30? well, if 29 out of 30 companies made such huge gains today, that means that ... yep, you are right! it is -0,31% today!!!
folks! help, help, help and take me out here :o))
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
no comments
crazy markets:
DAX ............. 4.823,45 +11,28%
Euro Stoxx 50 . 2.381,68 +3,87%
Dow Jones ..... 9.065,12 +10,88%
S&P 500 ......... 940,51 +10,79%
NASDAQ 100 .. 1.297,57 +10,92%
Nikkei 225 .... 7.621,92 +6,41%
btw, the worst DJIA stock rose more than 6%. all gains appeared in the last 3 hours.
DAX ............. 4.823,45 +11,28%
Euro Stoxx 50 . 2.381,68 +3,87%
Dow Jones ..... 9.065,12 +10,88%
S&P 500 ......... 940,51 +10,79%
NASDAQ 100 .. 1.297,57 +10,92%
Nikkei 225 .... 7.621,92 +6,41%
btw, the worst DJIA stock rose more than 6%. all gains appeared in the last 3 hours.
Monday, October 27, 2008
next crash(y) monday + short-squeeze @ volkswagen
folks, it's unbelievable. it's the next crashy october monday, already the 3rd!!! but not for volkswagen :o). almost everything went down: nikkei -6%; dax -4% => look at the top dax sub-window, here is the second BEST (!) stock losing more than 7% in the early morning; silver -6%; gold -3%, just VW didn't! the poor VW-short-sellers :o(. after 5 lucky days for them such a mess today (esp. a 70% gap up!)
volkswagen (VW) was back on planet earth last week ... and is in the stock heaven again :o)) => update on last week's post:
as the stock markets stabilized a little and there are not many margin calls in the books of speculators like me (or some heavily capitalized hedge funds :-), these evil guys can hold and increase their VW shorts and bring its share price back to a more realistic level – in the last few days lost VW about 50% of its (over-)value as its share price fell from 430 to 210 €uros .... yesterday porsche announced that it will increase its share @ VW and today started VW with a 70% gap up and rose more than 200% to €635. closing price was 520 euros, a daily gain of 146.62%. next day (28.10.2008) the same game => VW rose in less than a hour from €471 to €1,005 and closed @ 945 euros, which is 81.73% more than yesterday. its market capitalization? 277.83 billion euros, it is the most 'valuable' company now ... that's a short-squeeze, isn't it?
the possible reasons for that crashy overall market developments? see my older blogpost.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
trading seminar
trading seminar / trading software (green: buy; red: sell; blue: close position; target or stop limit reached: close position => trading as simple as that? and also as boring as that? ... well, it could work fine, if the 'rockwell trading'-software provided enough good signals and just very few false signals ... who knows? let's think about that later, maybe as a kind of diversification to my own 'signals' :-)
... to do ... limit (sell) orange juice ....
... to do ... limit (sell) orange juice ....
Thursday, October 23, 2008
bad joke
a really ugly joke (but it describes the ongoing circumstances on the financial markets so well :-):
the current situation on the financial markets is worse than a divorce: half the money is away, but the wife is still there :-))
the current situation on the financial markets is worse than a divorce: half the money is away, but the wife is still there :-))
next bad day
next bad day for me :o((
natural gas stopped out with a small loss; 5 DJIA trades with small losses (the market didn't like my bet); overall loss of 125 €uros :o((
item--------------: natural gas >> position closed
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / limit (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/16/2008, 18:12
entry price-------: 7.06
initial stop-loss--: 6.66 ... ... must always be filled :-)
new stop-loss----: 6.77
exit date---------: 10/23/2008, 15:23
exit price---------: 6.77
profit (loss) in %-: (4.1%)
profit (loss)------: 0.29 => ($29)
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is natural gas so unbelievable cheap that i will enter this position immediately, even when my stop-order was 'reached' i.e. executed today
lessons learned: as the fear is everywhere in the financial markets, the price can fell even deeper; my stop order was processed; exit with a small loss => ok
natural gas stopped out with a small loss; 5 DJIA trades with small losses (the market didn't like my bet); overall loss of 125 €uros :o((
item--------------: natural gas >> position closed
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / limit (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/16/2008, 18:12
entry price-------: 7.06
initial stop-loss--: 6.66 ... ... must always be filled :-)
new stop-loss----: 6.77
exit date---------: 10/23/2008, 15:23
exit price---------: 6.77
profit (loss) in %-: (4.1%)
profit (loss)------: 0.29 => ($29)
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is natural gas so unbelievable cheap that i will enter this position immediately, even when my stop-order was 'reached' i.e. executed today
lessons learned: as the fear is everywhere in the financial markets, the price can fell even deeper; my stop order was processed; exit with a small loss => ok
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
bad day
folks, that was a bad day for me ;o((
my trades: 1 x sugar, 2 x coffee, 14 x DJIA => overall loss of the day about € 130 (closed + open positions)
item--------------: coffee >> position closed
units--------------: 1
order type--------: limit (buy) / limit (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/15/2008, 19:51
entry price-------: 112.9 cents
initial stop-loss--: 107.9 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 108.8 > 113.0
exit date---------: 10/22/2008, 08:42
exit price---------: 113.0
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------: 0.1 => $ 10
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is coffee so unbelievable cheap that i will bet on its price recovery! coffee crashed today together with stocks and the most other commodities (margin calls @ overleveraged hedge funds?), so i've pick it up at a much lower level (bottom picking!) and now i do hope it will hold on and rise to 160 cents till the mid-winter :o)
lessons re-learned: the price rose to 117, then it fell again and for some reason much deeper as i would expect. folks, i did not think it will fall so deep ...
item--------------: coffee
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/22/2008, 18:59
entry price-------: 112.7 cents
initial stop-loss--: 108.7 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is coffee so unbelievable cheap that i will bet on its price recovery! coffee crashed today together with stocks and the most other commodities (margin calls @ overleveraged hedge funds?), so i've pick it up at a much lower level (bottom picking!) and now i do hope it will hold on and rise to 160 cents till the mid-winter :o)
lessons re-learned: the price can fell much deeper as i would expect. folks, i did not think it will fall so deep and allow me this cheap entry ...
item--------------: sugar >> position closed
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / limit (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/20/2008, 18:10
entry price-------: 11.52 cents
initial stop-loss--: 11.11 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 10/22/2008, 08:01
exit price---------: 11.11
profit (loss) in %-: 3.7%
profit (loss)------: 0.41 => ($41)
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is sugar quite cheap and i will bet on its price recovery!
lessons re-learned: the price fell together with the most other commodities as usd rallied again against other currencies (eur, yen, ...) => stop level reached => my opinion was wrong => ok, that's trading
14 x DJIA trades => just small wins and losses per trade (between plus $9 and minus $30), no luck to catch some big move today => overall loss about €98 => that's trading, thats ok
my trades: 1 x sugar, 2 x coffee, 14 x DJIA => overall loss of the day about € 130 (closed + open positions)
item--------------: coffee >> position closed
units--------------: 1
order type--------: limit (buy) / limit (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/15/2008, 19:51
entry price-------: 112.9 cents
initial stop-loss--: 107.9 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 108.8 > 113.0
exit date---------: 10/22/2008, 08:42
exit price---------: 113.0
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------: 0.1 => $ 10
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is coffee so unbelievable cheap that i will bet on its price recovery! coffee crashed today together with stocks and the most other commodities (margin calls @ overleveraged hedge funds?), so i've pick it up at a much lower level (bottom picking!) and now i do hope it will hold on and rise to 160 cents till the mid-winter :o)
lessons re-learned: the price rose to 117, then it fell again and for some reason much deeper as i would expect. folks, i did not think it will fall so deep ...
item--------------: coffee
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/22/2008, 18:59
entry price-------: 112.7 cents
initial stop-loss--: 108.7 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is coffee so unbelievable cheap that i will bet on its price recovery! coffee crashed today together with stocks and the most other commodities (margin calls @ overleveraged hedge funds?), so i've pick it up at a much lower level (bottom picking!) and now i do hope it will hold on and rise to 160 cents till the mid-winter :o)
lessons re-learned: the price can fell much deeper as i would expect. folks, i did not think it will fall so deep and allow me this cheap entry ...
item--------------: sugar >> position closed
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / limit (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/20/2008, 18:10
entry price-------: 11.52 cents
initial stop-loss--: 11.11 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 10/22/2008, 08:01
exit price---------: 11.11
profit (loss) in %-: 3.7%
profit (loss)------: 0.41 => ($41)
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is sugar quite cheap and i will bet on its price recovery!
lessons re-learned: the price fell together with the most other commodities as usd rallied again against other currencies (eur, yen, ...) => stop level reached => my opinion was wrong => ok, that's trading
14 x DJIA trades => just small wins and losses per trade (between plus $9 and minus $30), no luck to catch some big move today => overall loss about €98 => that's trading, thats ok
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
who understands the silver market?
as started yesterday, silver continues to live its own life! heeeeee? didn't you see its crazy movements 'against' its usual correlation buddies gold (direct corr.) + usd (indirect corr.) => ???
what could be the reason for that? my guess is, that SILVER IS ALREADY SOOOOO CHEAP, that there is not a single person on this whole freaking planet who would sell silver futures bellow its current price – no matter if gold is faaaaalling further or even the usd riiiising against eur, yen!
btw, please, please do not forget, that we speak just about the price of ‘paper silver’! you will have big, big difficulties to buy physical silver like 1 oz coins or bars at any precious metals dealer as the supply is death. even if they had some silver you will be overwhelmed about its spread to current paper price and ask yourself: ‘damned hell, why do the comex guys provide (+ manipulate?) the price of paper silver and not the price of real silver which i have to pay if i wanna get some silver and thus protect myself against state ordered robbery (=inflation) and a sad poor house future of myself?’ ask them :o))
ok, my both silver positions were stopped out with a small profit yesterday, so let’s wait for a new market entry. when? if gold would make me that favor and fall to the area of $750 again, maybe that could be a good entry? but don't forget, if the usd is rising against eur, it is not the best time to be (heavily) invested in gold, silver, commodities, …
volkswagen (VW) is back on planet earth ...
as the stock markets stabilized a little and there are not many margin calls in the books of speculators like me (or some heavily capitalized hedge funds :-), these evil guys can hold and increase their VW shorts and bring its share price back to a more realistic level – in the last 4 days lost VW about 40% of its (over-)value as its share price fell from 430 to 230 €uros .... and friday (24.10.2008 to 210 euros. than porsche announced on the weekend that it will increase its share and on monday 27.10.2008 rose VW more than 200% to € 630 and closed @520 euros, a daily gain of 146.62%. next day (28.10.2008) the same game => VW rose in less than a hour from €471 to €1.005 and closed @ 945 euros, which is 81,73% more than yesterday. its market capitalization? 277,83 billion euros. that's a short-squeeze, isn't it?
... and in the stock heaven again :o)). the possible reasons for that strange development? see my older blogpost.
my trades:
tecdax entered because i thought the stock markets will go up; it didn't; my opinion was wrong; my tight stop order was processed => ok, that's trading
toronto60, entered because i thought the stock markets will go up; it didn't; my opinion was wrong; my tight stop order was processed => ok, that's trading
+ 17 DJIA trades: i had 9 winners and 8 losers today, my best trade was a winner with $55, the worst trade was a loss of $26.
in the beginning i've lost few bucks as the market didn't like my opinion. then came my big, big trade and i could make up all the losses from tecdax, toronto60 and todays DJIA trades and had a small profit in my CFD-indexes-window. later i made some break, this time probably in the right moment as the market started to fall down after i've made nice profits on the long side for some time ... after the break and @ a much lower level i've bet that the DJIA will recover again (do you still remember our PPT?), but it didn't and even fell like a stone from its weaky stock heaven, so i've lost mostly all profits and decided to quit my DJIA trading with a small 'symbolic' gain of €2.31 => that's ok, that's trading :-))
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed #4
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / limit (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/21/2008, 19:14
entry price-------: 9,111
initial stop-loss--: 9,091 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 9,112 > 9,166
exit date---------: 10/21/2008, 19:25
exit price---------: 9,166
profit (loss) in %-: 0.6 %
profit (loss)------: $55
reason why + strategy: trying to trade some big movements in late market trading lessons learned: market liked my bet and moved in right direction; later i could grab few moe points on the way up => ok :-)
Monday, October 20, 2008
blogging OR trading, NOT BOTH !!! + who understands the silver market?
what about silver? what about its crazy movements 'against' its usual correlation buddies gold (direct corr.) + usd (indirect corr.) => ??? well, next day the same story, let's make some market analysis on that issue :o): silver market
item--------------: silver >> position closed
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / limit (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/20/2008, 01:10 (that was early in the morning! well, for me it was still sunday night :o)
entry price-------: 9.63
initial stop-loss--: 9.37 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 9.64
exit date---------: 10/20/2008, 12:08
exit price---------: 9.64
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------: $ 1
reason why + strategy: in my opinion we are in the middle (not the end!) of the 2008 financial crisis and silver (gold also) is so unbelievable cheap. i will bet on its price recovery!
lessons learned: silver rose to 9.86; gold fell slightly; usd rose massive against eur; silver fell again and hit my stop target => ok
item--------------: silver >> position closed
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy/ limit (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/17/2008, 15:09
entry price-------: 9.33
initial stop-loss--: 8.88 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 9.09 > 9.34 > 9.55
exit date---------: 10/20/2008, 13:28
exit price---------: 9.55
profit (loss) in %-: 2.36%
profit (loss)------: $ 22
reason why + strategy: in my opinion we are in the middle (not the end!) of the 2008 financial crisis and silver (gold also) is so unbelievable cheap. i will bet on its price recovery!
lessons learned: silver rose to 9.86; gold fell slightly; usd rose massive against eur; silver fell again and hit my stop target => ok
+ 9 DJIA trades with overall loss of 55.51 €uros. folks, that was a bad DJIA trading day :o((. before my break (dinner, bath tube) i had just 3 trades and a profit of 31 euros. after my break and 6 additional trades i have a loss of nearly double that amout => ??? why did i continue trading? why did i not shut down the trading platform and kept at least a small ('symbolic') gain for the day? and why did i trade IMMEDIATELY when i CAME BACK from break and didn't watch the market for some time to get a feeling in which direction it will most likely move? ... let's think about that :o))
... ok, the 1st idea for improvement arrived already: folks, in the future I WILL EITHER TRADE OR WRITE MY BLOG, BUT NOT BOTH !!! (writing my other websites or some postings in stock communities is also not 'allowed' when trading !!!)
btw, the market MOVED A LOT in the direction i thought it will (about 300 points, so it was a good evening to make some money), but the volatility was too high for my tight stop-limits and i couldn't catch the big move this time, also my concentration was more attented to writing this blogpost (+ enhancing the last one) than to trading. why? i don't truly know :o((. in retrospective i see, that i've therefore constantly missed good entry points and entered the market much too late, when a biggest part of its temporary movement was already done! what STUPID + UNNEEDED MISTAKES today! did i think that after 5 consecutive wins in DJIA trading there is nothing to worry and i can do some writing along the way? hmm, not really, but yes, somehow subconsciously (unterbewusst) i probably did. let's learn from this failure sth. useful 4 future trading sessions!
=> I WILL EITHER TRADE OR WRITE MY BLOG, BUT NOT BOTH !!!
my best trade today was a winner with $ 41, all the losses were between $ 9 and $ 25 per trade
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed #3
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / limit (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/20/2008, 18:17
entry price-------: 8,988
initial stop-loss--: 8,968 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 8,989 > 8,991 > 9,001 > 9,009 > 9,019 > 9,029 > (here i left for a break)
exit date---------: 10/20/2008, 18:37
exit price---------: 9,029
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------: $41
reason why + strategy: trying to trade some big movements in late market trading
lessons learned: market liked my bet and moved in right direction => ok :-)
item--------------: silver >> position closed
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / limit (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/20/2008, 01:10 (that was early in the morning! well, for me it was still sunday night :o)
entry price-------: 9.63
initial stop-loss--: 9.37 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 9.64
exit date---------: 10/20/2008, 12:08
exit price---------: 9.64
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------: $ 1
reason why + strategy: in my opinion we are in the middle (not the end!) of the 2008 financial crisis and silver (gold also) is so unbelievable cheap. i will bet on its price recovery!
lessons learned: silver rose to 9.86; gold fell slightly; usd rose massive against eur; silver fell again and hit my stop target => ok
item--------------: silver >> position closed
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy/ limit (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/17/2008, 15:09
entry price-------: 9.33
initial stop-loss--: 8.88 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 9.09 > 9.34 > 9.55
exit date---------: 10/20/2008, 13:28
exit price---------: 9.55
profit (loss) in %-: 2.36%
profit (loss)------: $ 22
reason why + strategy: in my opinion we are in the middle (not the end!) of the 2008 financial crisis and silver (gold also) is so unbelievable cheap. i will bet on its price recovery!
lessons learned: silver rose to 9.86; gold fell slightly; usd rose massive against eur; silver fell again and hit my stop target => ok
+ 9 DJIA trades with overall loss of 55.51 €uros. folks, that was a bad DJIA trading day :o((. before my break (dinner, bath tube) i had just 3 trades and a profit of 31 euros. after my break and 6 additional trades i have a loss of nearly double that amout => ??? why did i continue trading? why did i not shut down the trading platform and kept at least a small ('symbolic') gain for the day? and why did i trade IMMEDIATELY when i CAME BACK from break and didn't watch the market for some time to get a feeling in which direction it will most likely move? ... let's think about that :o))
... ok, the 1st idea for improvement arrived already: folks, in the future I WILL EITHER TRADE OR WRITE MY BLOG, BUT NOT BOTH !!! (writing my other websites or some postings in stock communities is also not 'allowed' when trading !!!)
btw, the market MOVED A LOT in the direction i thought it will (about 300 points, so it was a good evening to make some money), but the volatility was too high for my tight stop-limits and i couldn't catch the big move this time, also my concentration was more attented to writing this blogpost (+ enhancing the last one) than to trading. why? i don't truly know :o((. in retrospective i see, that i've therefore constantly missed good entry points and entered the market much too late, when a biggest part of its temporary movement was already done! what STUPID + UNNEEDED MISTAKES today! did i think that after 5 consecutive wins in DJIA trading there is nothing to worry and i can do some writing along the way? hmm, not really, but yes, somehow subconsciously (unterbewusst) i probably did. let's learn from this failure sth. useful 4 future trading sessions!
=> I WILL EITHER TRADE OR WRITE MY BLOG, BUT NOT BOTH !!!
my best trade today was a winner with $ 41, all the losses were between $ 9 and $ 25 per trade
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed #3
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / limit (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/20/2008, 18:17
entry price-------: 8,988
initial stop-loss--: 8,968 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 8,989 > 8,991 > 9,001 > 9,009 > 9,019 > 9,029 > (here i left for a break)
exit date---------: 10/20/2008, 18:37
exit price---------: 9,029
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------: $41
reason why + strategy: trying to trade some big movements in late market trading
lessons learned: market liked my bet and moved in right direction => ok :-)
Sunday, October 19, 2008
stockflock, sixt, entrepreneurship, state controls
what is stockflock or what could/should it become? folks, yesterday i've attended its 1st BarCamp, more precisely StockCamp in munich which was devoted to the 2008 financial mess we are facing just now. it was fine [interesting speeches + delicious catering thx 2 sponsors munich stock-exchange + the bavarian multi-millionaire erich sixt, the founder and still a major owner of his succesful car rental company sixt. btw, sixt is not only famous for having nice cars, but also for funny + creative advertising, like this superhit from matthias reim with new lyrics:
sha ~ verdammt ich lieb dich (also different lyrics than in the original son by matthias reimann)
there were many interesting presentations + mostly wise discussions. the 1st issue was a contribution of munich's lawyer about the security of bank accounts in case of bankruptcies. he started with a quotation of germany's alpha-banker ackermann (ceo deutsche bank): every bank will go bankrupt if the customers wanted their money back ... do u understand why i LOVE this fractional reserve banking sooooooo much? btw, chancellor's merkel declaration about the security of bank accounts 2 weeks ago is worthless!!! (in juristic sense, not in psychological :o)
a guy from finance department of bavarian government proved great presentation skills (the politicians are used to lull the masses:) and was really happy that the european governments could pretend a safe financial system with their huuuuge bailout a week ago ... well, i asked him if it is possible to solve a financial crisis caused by too much paper money by adding even more paper money to the system [would u try to extinguish fire by adding some more oil?] and then i asked how could this bailout effect inflation ... well, he told that to reduce the panic of the masses was the most important issue [or did he tell sth like 'to bring the confidence back' ? which is, btw, the same, just told in a more diplomatic way]. unfortunately, he could say NOTHING about inflation as that is the task of european central bank (ECB) ..... hmmmm, why do the ECB guys add soooo much paper/electronic money to the system in that case? ...OMG! few weeks later he become the bavarian treasury ministry ...
germany's famous stock-farmer (and stock analyst) brought some nice charts with development of dow jones index since 2000 transferred to price of some 'real' values like wheat, gold, copper, oil ... did u now that dow lost between 40% (wheat) and 85% (oil) since then and that u have made a big, big mistake if you have not sold the DJIA in 2000 and bought oil instead?
what about erich sixt? what about HONEST entrepreneurship? and on the other side, what about bailouts, state controls + regulations of economy? financial crisis? ... => let's fight state regulations and save capitalism! it had always been the survival of the fittest! could i remember also some other pieces of his wisdom? yep, here we go:
- we need more entrepreneurs and less managers because a manager does what he knows and an entrepreneur knows what should be done :-))
- honest (scrupulous) merchant philosophy is much better than nowadays short-term profit thinking + bonus oriented managing of companies
- crisis is a chance for the solid companies to take-over their weak (2008: overleveraged & underfinanced) competitors and/or their market shares
- if u trust someone u don't need a contract. if u don't, u shouldn't agree to a contract :o)
why did erich sixt launched stockflock? he doesnt trust much the (bribed!) analysts or financial advisers who promote the stuff their bank want to sell ... and he believes that AVERAGE PEOPLE OUT THERE can help each other to make some clever investment decisions, provide true information about diverse companies and their management, etc ...
folks, this is communication, sharing of knowledge, web 2.0! good-bye jesus, good-bye age of pisces and WELCOME the AGE OF AQUARIUS :o))
(source http://wikipedia.org/):
PISCES: "The Age of Monotheism, Spirituality, and the Fish" ...; The Age of Pisces is characterized by the rise of many religions such as Christianity, Islam and Buddhism due to "spiritual" nature of Pisces and its ability to go beyond the boundaries of the physical world. The Age of Pisces is mainly marked by the continuous research of mankind about the truth hidden behind what's perceived by five senses. ...
AQUARIUS: "The Age of Freedom, Technology (especially electricity), and the Water Bearer"; ... democracy, freedom, humanitarianism, idealists, modernization, rebels and rebellions, ... , communication :o)
Friday, October 17, 2008
next lucky day
well, i could feel that after a big SILVER price decrease there was sth. in the air and i knew that sth. important will happen (at that time was the usd temporary losing against the eur => inter-market-correlation was also on my side) ... i bought @9.33 ... just seconds later fell gold + silver even more (to 9.06) and usd rose again :-((. silver bounced back 3 hours later and i have now a small theoretical gain on that position. let's move my initial stop limit a little bit higher before market closes its doors for the weekend and hope that silver will go up next week [as it IMHO should in the epicentre of this financial + paper money disaster! if we consider also the fact that physical gold/silver supply is hardly available and if so, then just with a huge spread to the manipulated comex futures prices :-] and i will be able to hold that position and place some profit protecting stop limit on monday ... let's go to gym (PFS) and see late at night what did mr. market today :o))
item--------------: silver
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/17/2008, 15:09
entry price-------: 9.33
initial stop-loss--: 8.88 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 9.09 > 9.34
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion we are in the middle (not the end!) of the 2008 financial crisis and silver (gold also) is so unbelievable cheap. i will bet on its price recovery!
+ 3 DJIA trades (2 winners + 1 loser). folks, it is already the 5th consecutive day where i could make some profits trading the late market movements of DJIA. of course, provided i will not lose it later at night => maybe i shouldn't trade today anymore, should i? unlike my usual results, i've earned more than my broker through my trades today! folks, i had just 2 losing days out of 9 trials in september / october and even my last losing day was not bad as i had just 1 trade with a small loss of € 11 and didn't trade further as there was no clear temporary trend visible, so i decided not to bet real money on that poor outlook. just the very first trial was really bad as i've lost maybe $130 in few hours, but learned a lot through markets punches :-).
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #1
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / limit (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/17/2008, 17:54
entry price-------: 9,071
initial stop-loss--: 9,051 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 9,102
exit date---------: 10/17/2008, 17:56
exit price---------: 9,102
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------: $31
reason why + strategy: trying to trade some big movements in late market trading
lessons learned: if the chart is 'telling' me that there will be a significant move in some direction i will bet on that and as always insure my position with a stop order in case i'm wrong
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed #2
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / limit (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/17/2008, 17:58
entry price-------: 9,098
initial stop-loss--: 9,082 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 9,099 > 9,107 > 9,111 > 9,133 > 9,144
exit date---------: 10/17/2008, 18:02
exit price---------: 9,144
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------: $46
reason why + strategy: trying to trade some big movements in late market trading
lessons learned: market liked my bet and moved in 'my' direction => ok
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed #3
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / limit (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/17/2008, 19:03
entry price-------: 9,157
initial stop-loss--: 9,136 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 10/17/2008, 20:03
exit price---------: 9,136
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------: ($21)
reason why + strategy: trying to trade some big movements in late market trading
lessons learned: market didn't like my bet and moved in opposite direction => also ok, that's trading, that's life :-)
item--------------: silver
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/17/2008, 15:09
entry price-------: 9.33
initial stop-loss--: 8.88 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 9.09 > 9.34
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion we are in the middle (not the end!) of the 2008 financial crisis and silver (gold also) is so unbelievable cheap. i will bet on its price recovery!
+ 3 DJIA trades (2 winners + 1 loser). folks, it is already the 5th consecutive day where i could make some profits trading the late market movements of DJIA. of course, provided i will not lose it later at night => maybe i shouldn't trade today anymore, should i? unlike my usual results, i've earned more than my broker through my trades today! folks, i had just 2 losing days out of 9 trials in september / october and even my last losing day was not bad as i had just 1 trade with a small loss of € 11 and didn't trade further as there was no clear temporary trend visible, so i decided not to bet real money on that poor outlook. just the very first trial was really bad as i've lost maybe $130 in few hours, but learned a lot through markets punches :-).
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #1
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / limit (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/17/2008, 17:54
entry price-------: 9,071
initial stop-loss--: 9,051 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 9,102
exit date---------: 10/17/2008, 17:56
exit price---------: 9,102
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------: $31
reason why + strategy: trying to trade some big movements in late market trading
lessons learned: if the chart is 'telling' me that there will be a significant move in some direction i will bet on that and as always insure my position with a stop order in case i'm wrong
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed #2
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / limit (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/17/2008, 17:58
entry price-------: 9,098
initial stop-loss--: 9,082 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 9,099 > 9,107 > 9,111 > 9,133 > 9,144
exit date---------: 10/17/2008, 18:02
exit price---------: 9,144
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------: $46
reason why + strategy: trying to trade some big movements in late market trading
lessons learned: market liked my bet and moved in 'my' direction => ok
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed #3
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / limit (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/17/2008, 19:03
entry price-------: 9,157
initial stop-loss--: 9,136 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 10/17/2008, 20:03
exit price---------: 9,136
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------: ($21)
reason why + strategy: trying to trade some big movements in late market trading
lessons learned: market didn't like my bet and moved in opposite direction => also ok, that's trading, that's life :-)
Thursday, October 16, 2008
lucky day
there are days where i have more luck than brains :-)), like in my 15 DJIA trades today ...
first 4 of them where NOT necessary as i started to trade as soon as the trading platform launched after i came home from my office. but at that time i had no idea in which direction could the market go, had no idea where the temporary lows and highs were and consequentially i have lost $58 in 13 minutes with 3 losers + 1 winner. after a small break for dinner i come back to my computer and had 1 winning trade ($1 as always when the price moves a little bit in 'my' direction, so i can move my stop order to secure this result, but the price comes back later). still somehow unsettled i entered a trade + placed a stop order and went to take a bath in order to relax a little bit :o). well, in that time moved the market 170 points higher, but as i wasn't there and couldn't move my stop order to secure a significant part of this profit, i took a loss of $33 as my stop order was processed. that's trading, that's ok ... water, candles, coffee, the 1st x-mass-like cake in this year, no noise, no electric light ...
30 min later + well relaxed = new trading trial! at that point i had already a daily loss of about $90, but i've clicked the BUY button again. result? a loss of $40, the worst trade of the day. ok, let's take the next break! 20 minutes later i came back and in the next few trades i could make up for all losses (unfortunately just virtual as i didn't close the current position immediately), later i had -80 again ... but now came the huge move in DJIA i'm waiting for (PPT again?) as it moved 250 points up and i could 'take' about 200 points (i.e. $200) in 5 winning + 1 losing trade. this would be the time to say good-bye, isn't it? well, i've tried 3 more trades (1 winning + 2 losing) and lost $56. then it was definitely enough and i shut down the trading platform 30 minutes before market closed as there was a heavy war between the bulls and bears @ 8,800 level (very, very volatile! 30 points up or down in few seconds ...).
=> after a very bad start i could make up for a result of $ 77 and i changed the name of this posting from 'i'm a stupid idiot' (one of my bath tube ideas) to 'lucky day' :-)). folks, this time earned my broker less than me (15 x 4 = $60, but with ZERO risk :-)).
there is still sooo much luck/misfortune in tick-chart-trading e.g. will the quote hit my stop limit in a small temporary trend correction and then continue in the anticipated direction or not? well, what are the lessons learned today + which ideas did i get in my bath tube? i will try to trade just some bigger moves and not every tick! how will you make it sure, you addicted, hopeless gambler?
in my LONG TRADES i will place my stop-orders bellow the temporary low and let my long position some air to breathe ...
in order not to violate the law of symmetry, in my SHORT TRADES, of course, i will place my stop-order above the temporary high ...
item--------------: natural gas >> position closed
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/10/2008, 17:21
entry price-------: 7.08
initial stop-loss--: 6.69 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 10/16/2008, 09:06
exit price---------: 6.69
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is natural gas so unbelievable cheap that i will bet on its price recovery!
lessons learned: even when the corresponding commodity future DID NOT QUOTED @my stop-level (daily low 6.715 @nymex), my market making cfd-broker sold my position as the real price moved close to 6.69 wich was my stop limit. yep, you're right! f*cking hell, again and again! well, this 'easiness' in setting price quotes they like is the main reason for me to earn some money here and to move to a futures broker! trading is difficult enough, there is no need to handle also this kind of broker risk, isnt't it? ok! let's complain about that @ my broker's help desk, maybe they will rewind this order (as they already did in few former cases) and let's move on ...
item--------------: natural gas
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/16/2008, 18:12
entry price-------: 7.06
initial stop-loss--: 6.66 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 6.77
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is natural gas so unbelievable cheap that i will enter this position immediately, even when my stop-order was 'reached' i.e. executed today
i will post just the most significant DJIA trades today:
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #4
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / stop (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/16/2008, 18:22
entry price-------: 8,577
initial stop-loss--: 8,555 ... and then i left my PC to take a bath, relax + think :o)
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 10/16/2008, 18:24
exit price---------: 8,555
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)-------: ($22)
reason why + strategy: trying to trade some big moves ...
lessons learned: nice trade; clever and FAST placement of initial stop-limit as the DJIA moved fast in proposed direction; the market bounced back, but it doesn't matter as my stop-limit was there => OK
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #7
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / stop (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/16/2008, 19:46
entry price-------: 8,564
initial stop-loss--: 8,551
new stop-loss----: 8,625
exit date---------: 10/16/2008, 19:51
exit price---------: 8,555
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)-------: $61
reason why + strategy: trying to trade some big moves ...
lessons learned: nice trade; clever and FAST placement of initial stop-limit as the DJIA moved fast in proposed direction; the market continued ran in my direction and i could move my stop limit higher several times :-); this kind of trades i'm waiting for => OK
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #11
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / stop (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/16/2008, 19:59
entry price-------: 8,630
initial stop-loss--: 8,611
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 10/16/2008, 20:10
exit price---------: 8,741
profit (loss) in %-: 1.29%
profit (loss)-------: $111
reason why + strategy: trying to trade some big moves ...
lessons learned: nice trade; clever and FAST placement of initial stop-limit as the DJIA moved fast in proposed direction; the market continued ran in my direction and i could move my stop limit higher several times :-); this kind of trades i'm looking for => OK
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #12
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / stop (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/16/2008, 20:11
entry price-------: 8,742
initial stop-loss--: 8,721
new stop-loss----: 8,818
exit date---------: 10/16/2008, 20:15
exit price---------: 8,818
profit (loss) in %-: 0.87%
profit (loss)-------: $76
reason why + strategy: trying to trade some big moves ...
lessons learned: nice trade; clever and FAST placement of initial stop-limit as the DJIA moved fast in proposed direction; the market continued ran in my direction and i could move my stop limit higher several times :-); this kind of trades i'm waiting for => OK
first 4 of them where NOT necessary as i started to trade as soon as the trading platform launched after i came home from my office. but at that time i had no idea in which direction could the market go, had no idea where the temporary lows and highs were and consequentially i have lost $58 in 13 minutes with 3 losers + 1 winner. after a small break for dinner i come back to my computer and had 1 winning trade ($1 as always when the price moves a little bit in 'my' direction, so i can move my stop order to secure this result, but the price comes back later). still somehow unsettled i entered a trade + placed a stop order and went to take a bath in order to relax a little bit :o). well, in that time moved the market 170 points higher, but as i wasn't there and couldn't move my stop order to secure a significant part of this profit, i took a loss of $33 as my stop order was processed. that's trading, that's ok ... water, candles, coffee, the 1st x-mass-like cake in this year, no noise, no electric light ...
30 min later + well relaxed = new trading trial! at that point i had already a daily loss of about $90, but i've clicked the BUY button again. result? a loss of $40, the worst trade of the day. ok, let's take the next break! 20 minutes later i came back and in the next few trades i could make up for all losses (unfortunately just virtual as i didn't close the current position immediately), later i had -80 again ... but now came the huge move in DJIA i'm waiting for (PPT again?) as it moved 250 points up and i could 'take' about 200 points (i.e. $200) in 5 winning + 1 losing trade. this would be the time to say good-bye, isn't it? well, i've tried 3 more trades (1 winning + 2 losing) and lost $56. then it was definitely enough and i shut down the trading platform 30 minutes before market closed as there was a heavy war between the bulls and bears @ 8,800 level (very, very volatile! 30 points up or down in few seconds ...).
=> after a very bad start i could make up for a result of $ 77 and i changed the name of this posting from 'i'm a stupid idiot' (one of my bath tube ideas) to 'lucky day' :-)). folks, this time earned my broker less than me (15 x 4 = $60, but with ZERO risk :-)).
there is still sooo much luck/misfortune in tick-chart-trading e.g. will the quote hit my stop limit in a small temporary trend correction and then continue in the anticipated direction or not? well, what are the lessons learned today + which ideas did i get in my bath tube? i will try to trade just some bigger moves and not every tick! how will you make it sure, you addicted, hopeless gambler?
in my LONG TRADES i will place my stop-orders bellow the temporary low and let my long position some air to breathe ...
in order not to violate the law of symmetry, in my SHORT TRADES, of course, i will place my stop-order above the temporary high ...
item--------------: natural gas >> position closed
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/10/2008, 17:21
entry price-------: 7.08
initial stop-loss--: 6.69 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 10/16/2008, 09:06
exit price---------: 6.69
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is natural gas so unbelievable cheap that i will bet on its price recovery!
lessons learned: even when the corresponding commodity future DID NOT QUOTED @my stop-level (daily low 6.715 @nymex), my market making cfd-broker sold my position as the real price moved close to 6.69 wich was my stop limit. yep, you're right! f*cking hell, again and again! well, this 'easiness' in setting price quotes they like is the main reason for me to earn some money here and to move to a futures broker! trading is difficult enough, there is no need to handle also this kind of broker risk, isnt't it? ok! let's complain about that @ my broker's help desk, maybe they will rewind this order (as they already did in few former cases) and let's move on ...
item--------------: natural gas
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/16/2008, 18:12
entry price-------: 7.06
initial stop-loss--: 6.66 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 6.77
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is natural gas so unbelievable cheap that i will enter this position immediately, even when my stop-order was 'reached' i.e. executed today
i will post just the most significant DJIA trades today:
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #4
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / stop (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/16/2008, 18:22
entry price-------: 8,577
initial stop-loss--: 8,555 ... and then i left my PC to take a bath, relax + think :o)
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 10/16/2008, 18:24
exit price---------: 8,555
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)-------: ($22)
reason why + strategy: trying to trade some big moves ...
lessons learned: nice trade; clever and FAST placement of initial stop-limit as the DJIA moved fast in proposed direction; the market bounced back, but it doesn't matter as my stop-limit was there => OK
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #7
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / stop (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/16/2008, 19:46
entry price-------: 8,564
initial stop-loss--: 8,551
new stop-loss----: 8,625
exit date---------: 10/16/2008, 19:51
exit price---------: 8,555
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)-------: $61
reason why + strategy: trying to trade some big moves ...
lessons learned: nice trade; clever and FAST placement of initial stop-limit as the DJIA moved fast in proposed direction; the market continued ran in my direction and i could move my stop limit higher several times :-); this kind of trades i'm waiting for => OK
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #11
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / stop (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/16/2008, 19:59
entry price-------: 8,630
initial stop-loss--: 8,611
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 10/16/2008, 20:10
exit price---------: 8,741
profit (loss) in %-: 1.29%
profit (loss)-------: $111
reason why + strategy: trying to trade some big moves ...
lessons learned: nice trade; clever and FAST placement of initial stop-limit as the DJIA moved fast in proposed direction; the market continued ran in my direction and i could move my stop limit higher several times :-); this kind of trades i'm looking for => OK
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #12
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / stop (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/16/2008, 20:11
entry price-------: 8,742
initial stop-loss--: 8,721
new stop-loss----: 8,818
exit date---------: 10/16/2008, 20:15
exit price---------: 8,818
profit (loss) in %-: 0.87%
profit (loss)-------: $76
reason why + strategy: trying to trade some big moves ...
lessons learned: nice trade; clever and FAST placement of initial stop-limit as the DJIA moved fast in proposed direction; the market continued ran in my direction and i could move my stop limit higher several times :-); this kind of trades i'm waiting for => OK
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
fear instaed of greed!
folks, after 2 crazy days on the stock markets (on monday +10% , on tuesday +4%) is the rationality back! why? i don't know, maybe all these folks out there understood that printing paper money alone will probably not solve a crisis which is caused by too much paper money and thus resulting malinvestments. maybe some of them were in zimbabwe and saw that even printing much, much, much more damned paper money doesn't solve fundamental economic problems and thought: why should it help in europe and/or usa? maybe have the markets consider that state owned financial industry (usa bought shares in 9 of its major banks; UK even more; i'm not sure about germany, but here had especially the partially state ownwed banks the biggest financial difficulties in the last few months and have already been bail-outed). well, maybe some of the folks thought about future economic prospects, about future earnings of the most companies and as we are already facing a huge recession, they cosidered to press the 'SELL' button instead of buy any share ... ==> dax -6.5%; dow jones -7.87%, s&p500 -9.03%; nasdaq100 -8.82%
as always there is an exception and that is again the lonely star on german stock heaven = volkswagen. it rose by 11.03% TODAY which add more market capitalization for its shareholders than the whole former competitor and my employer bmw is worth ...
item--------------: coffee >> position closed
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / limit (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/10/2008, 17:30
entry price-------: 115.5 cents
initial stop-loss--: 109.4 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 111.1 > 115.6
exit date---------: 10/15/2008, 15:56
exit price---------: 115.6
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------: 0.1 => $ 10
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is coffee so unbelievable cheap that i will bet on its price recovery! well, coffee moved up above 120 cents since i've entered this trade, but i didn't take higher profits as i've believed it cannot fall bellow my limit because even the seasonals are so positive just now ... well, coffee could and did and crashed together with stocks and the most other commodities (margin calls @ overleveraged hedge funds?)
lessons re-learned: the price can fell much deeper as i could imagine, this time i was able to buy a new long position on a much lower level, let's hope it will hold on and rise to 160 cents till the mid-winter :o)
item--------------: coffee
units--------------: 1
order type--------: limit
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/15/2008, 19:51
entry price-------: 112.9 cents
initial stop-loss--: 107.9 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 108.8 > 113.0
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is coffee so unbelievable cheap that i will bet on its price recovery! coffee crashed today together with stocks and the most other commodities (margin calls @ overleveraged hedge funds?), so i've pick it up at a much lower level (bottom picking!) and now i do hope it will hold on and rise to 160 cents till the mid-winter :o)
lessons re-learned: the price can fell much deeper as i would expect. folks, i did not think it will fall so deep and allow me this cheap entry ...
uppdate on 2008 financial crisis:
just in case you've forgotten our former analysis (+ possible solution :-) of this financial misery, here is the link4u: http://jarogruber.blogspot.com/2008/10/2008-financial-crisis-not-just-subprime.html
as always there is an exception and that is again the lonely star on german stock heaven = volkswagen. it rose by 11.03% TODAY which add more market capitalization for its shareholders than the whole former competitor and my employer bmw is worth ...
item--------------: coffee >> position closed
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / limit (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/10/2008, 17:30
entry price-------: 115.5 cents
initial stop-loss--: 109.4 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 111.1 > 115.6
exit date---------: 10/15/2008, 15:56
exit price---------: 115.6
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------: 0.1 => $ 10
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is coffee so unbelievable cheap that i will bet on its price recovery! well, coffee moved up above 120 cents since i've entered this trade, but i didn't take higher profits as i've believed it cannot fall bellow my limit because even the seasonals are so positive just now ... well, coffee could and did and crashed together with stocks and the most other commodities (margin calls @ overleveraged hedge funds?)
lessons re-learned: the price can fell much deeper as i could imagine, this time i was able to buy a new long position on a much lower level, let's hope it will hold on and rise to 160 cents till the mid-winter :o)
item--------------: coffee
units--------------: 1
order type--------: limit
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/15/2008, 19:51
entry price-------: 112.9 cents
initial stop-loss--: 107.9 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 108.8 > 113.0
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is coffee so unbelievable cheap that i will bet on its price recovery! coffee crashed today together with stocks and the most other commodities (margin calls @ overleveraged hedge funds?), so i've pick it up at a much lower level (bottom picking!) and now i do hope it will hold on and rise to 160 cents till the mid-winter :o)
lessons re-learned: the price can fell much deeper as i would expect. folks, i did not think it will fall so deep and allow me this cheap entry ...
uppdate on 2008 financial crisis:
just in case you've forgotten our former analysis (+ possible solution :-) of this financial misery, here is the link4u: http://jarogruber.blogspot.com/2008/10/2008-financial-crisis-not-just-subprime.html
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
daytrading vs. my personality
folks, after trying to trade some moves of the DJIA on the tick-chart-window in its late trading hours i'm asking myself if my personality fits to this kind of trading :o) why? it's such a breaking stress!!! i'm not sure i will like that kind of trading, let's find out by doing it for a while @small real-money-account :-)
i think i would prefer position trading instead ;O) why? i'd like to hold my positions for few days or weeks and exit them after my trailing stop-order was touched (ok, it's just suitable in trending markets, but there are always many of them out there). furthermore, i could also bring in some fundamental analysis into my trading which i would really enjoy and last but not least, it is such a good feeling when i'm able to move my (trailing) stop-order above my entry price (like today for orange juice and coffee :-) + enjoy the future development of my positions => in the tradition of the old adage, cut your losses and let your profits run. it really is as simple as that :o))
well, i've made few bucks ($43) with 15 DJIA trades today => my broker made more ($60); i've moved 15 x 9,300 = $139,000 on the markets; i had just €400 on securities/margin at my account; the first 6 trades have been on the SHORT side; later i had more longs than shorts as the temporary market trend changed its direction; there were 4 trades with just $1 profit as the price went a little bit in the anticipated direction but not enough to move my stop orders significantly further; there have been 10 winners and 5 losers on my trading table today; my profits has developed approx. in the following sequence (amounts in EUR): 0.75 / 8 / 5 / 15 / break for dinner / 8 / 51 / 3 / short break as i've shut down the trading platform after 3 losing trades / 31.55 / end of trading about 30 minutes before the day close as i had no idea in which direction could the market move next + the volatility was extreme (plus/minus 25 points in few seconds) + i wanted to preserve my profits + i was soooo tired ...
lessons learned: yep, it is very hard (even irresponsible?) to trade on the tick-chart when i'm very tired after my daily work in the office ... after my first 4 trades i've taken a break to eat some food and clean up my mind as i wasn't even sure if i've pressed the BUY or SELL button .... in few fast moving market actions i wasn't able to place a stop-order fast enough to limit my eventual losses (there is some smallest allowed difference to the current market price for limit orders) ... TWICE by a mistake i actually closed my price window instead of minimize it ... once or twice i closed my open position immediately without knowing if i have some loss or profit on that .... few times was my order NOT accepted by my broker (too fast moving market?) and i had to decide to quote a different price some 10-15 seconds later or enter a new limit order .... TWICE there was a situation where i couldn't insert any stop-order ... => the trading result is often more a question of luck than of some trading skills (position stopped out just seconds before a huuuuge move happened ... or an order wasn't inserted fast enough and the position returned higher loss as initially planned ... ==> ToDo:
a) to trade in more relaxed shape... this one will be difficult after my usual business day ;o(
b) i'll ALWAYS try to place an initial stop-order as i can never know what happens with my internet connection, my trading software, broker's stream of quotes .... because i don't like to have any open position in a fast moving market without any possibility to close it immediately!
c) to test if it would be suitable for my trading to accept the first stop-order quote offered by broker (=> is that the minimum allowed spread to current price?) instead of trying to insert some other stop level, just to be sure there is an initial stop-order in my trading account :-)
d) to use the double-click-mode furthermore as the risk to be a little bit too late when confirmirg quotes seems to be not so critical than the risk to click a wrong button (SELL/BUY) or enter a position accidentially by clicking a price window in order to watch its whole content or just moving it to the front of my desktop, isn't it?
i will post just the 3 most significant trades today:
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #9
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / stop (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/14/2008, 20:09
entry price-------: 9,188
initial stop-loss--: (don't remember anymore :-)
new stop-loss----: 9,224
exit date---------: 10/14/2008, 20:11
exit price---------: 9,224
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)-------: $ 36
reason why + strategy: trying to trade some big moves ...
lessons learned: nice trade; clever and FAST placement of initial stop-loss-limit as the DJIA moved fast in proposed direction; nice stop-loss-limit later on to secure the profit => OK
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #13
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / stop (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/14/2008, 20:22:01
entry price-------: 9,257
initial stop-loss--: (did i place it in this '1 min 12 sec' trade really?)
new stop-loss----: 9,230
exit date---------: 10/14/2008, 20:23:13
exit price---------: 9,230
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)-------: ($ 27)
reason why + strategy: trying to trade some big moves ...
lessons learned: a bad trade; market moved faster than i was able to place a 'suitable' stop-order => OK, that's trading, that's life
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #15
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / stop (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/14/2008, 20:30:04
entry price-------: 9,303
initial stop-loss--: 9,291
new stop-loss----: 9,341
exit date---------: 10/14/2008, 20:31:52
exit price---------: 9,341
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)-------: $ 38
reason why + strategy: trying to trade some big moves ...
lessons learned: nice trade; clever and FAST placement of initial stop-loss-limit as the DJIA moved fast in proposed direction; nice stop-loss-limit later on to secure the profit => OK
i think i would prefer position trading instead ;O) why? i'd like to hold my positions for few days or weeks and exit them after my trailing stop-order was touched (ok, it's just suitable in trending markets, but there are always many of them out there). furthermore, i could also bring in some fundamental analysis into my trading which i would really enjoy and last but not least, it is such a good feeling when i'm able to move my (trailing) stop-order above my entry price (like today for orange juice and coffee :-) + enjoy the future development of my positions => in the tradition of the old adage, cut your losses and let your profits run. it really is as simple as that :o))
well, i've made few bucks ($43) with 15 DJIA trades today => my broker made more ($60); i've moved 15 x 9,300 = $139,000 on the markets; i had just €400 on securities/margin at my account; the first 6 trades have been on the SHORT side; later i had more longs than shorts as the temporary market trend changed its direction; there were 4 trades with just $1 profit as the price went a little bit in the anticipated direction but not enough to move my stop orders significantly further; there have been 10 winners and 5 losers on my trading table today; my profits has developed approx. in the following sequence (amounts in EUR): 0.75 / 8 / 5 / 15 / break for dinner / 8 / 51 / 3 / short break as i've shut down the trading platform after 3 losing trades / 31.55 / end of trading about 30 minutes before the day close as i had no idea in which direction could the market move next + the volatility was extreme (plus/minus 25 points in few seconds) + i wanted to preserve my profits + i was soooo tired ...
lessons learned: yep, it is very hard (even irresponsible?) to trade on the tick-chart when i'm very tired after my daily work in the office ... after my first 4 trades i've taken a break to eat some food and clean up my mind as i wasn't even sure if i've pressed the BUY or SELL button .... in few fast moving market actions i wasn't able to place a stop-order fast enough to limit my eventual losses (there is some smallest allowed difference to the current market price for limit orders) ... TWICE by a mistake i actually closed my price window instead of minimize it ... once or twice i closed my open position immediately without knowing if i have some loss or profit on that .... few times was my order NOT accepted by my broker (too fast moving market?) and i had to decide to quote a different price some 10-15 seconds later or enter a new limit order .... TWICE there was a situation where i couldn't insert any stop-order ... => the trading result is often more a question of luck than of some trading skills (position stopped out just seconds before a huuuuge move happened ... or an order wasn't inserted fast enough and the position returned higher loss as initially planned ... ==> ToDo:
a) to trade in more relaxed shape... this one will be difficult after my usual business day ;o(
b) i'll ALWAYS try to place an initial stop-order as i can never know what happens with my internet connection, my trading software, broker's stream of quotes .... because i don't like to have any open position in a fast moving market without any possibility to close it immediately!
c) to test if it would be suitable for my trading to accept the first stop-order quote offered by broker (=> is that the minimum allowed spread to current price?) instead of trying to insert some other stop level, just to be sure there is an initial stop-order in my trading account :-)
d) to use the double-click-mode furthermore as the risk to be a little bit too late when confirmirg quotes seems to be not so critical than the risk to click a wrong button (SELL/BUY) or enter a position accidentially by clicking a price window in order to watch its whole content or just moving it to the front of my desktop, isn't it?
i will post just the 3 most significant trades today:
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #9
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / stop (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/14/2008, 20:09
entry price-------: 9,188
initial stop-loss--: (don't remember anymore :-)
new stop-loss----: 9,224
exit date---------: 10/14/2008, 20:11
exit price---------: 9,224
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)-------: $ 36
reason why + strategy: trying to trade some big moves ...
lessons learned: nice trade; clever and FAST placement of initial stop-loss-limit as the DJIA moved fast in proposed direction; nice stop-loss-limit later on to secure the profit => OK
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #13
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / stop (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/14/2008, 20:22:01
entry price-------: 9,257
initial stop-loss--: (did i place it in this '1 min 12 sec' trade really?)
new stop-loss----: 9,230
exit date---------: 10/14/2008, 20:23:13
exit price---------: 9,230
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)-------: ($ 27)
reason why + strategy: trying to trade some big moves ...
lessons learned: a bad trade; market moved faster than i was able to place a 'suitable' stop-order => OK, that's trading, that's life
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #15
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (buy) / stop (sell)
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/14/2008, 20:30:04
entry price-------: 9,303
initial stop-loss--: 9,291
new stop-loss----: 9,341
exit date---------: 10/14/2008, 20:31:52
exit price---------: 9,341
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)-------: $ 38
reason why + strategy: trying to trade some big moves ...
lessons learned: nice trade; clever and FAST placement of initial stop-loss-limit as the DJIA moved fast in proposed direction; nice stop-loss-limit later on to secure the profit => OK
Monday, October 13, 2008
the markets are craaazy!
crazy monday or crazy people? that's the question ...
on friday crashed the german, japanese, u.s. stocks by up to -9% and the fear was everywhere! on the weekend decided the western european politicians to bail out the whole financial industry and promised the hugest money package in history of this planet (of course, it is money out of thin air as usual, because ALL of that countries run budget deficits and NONE of them has any significant savings, currency reserves or the like!); great britain decided even to buy shares of its banks, ... some additional comments needed? yes? really? ok, that's SOCIALISM FOR THE RICH !!!
well, the markets liked this bail-out! the german dax rose 11.4 % (!!!) as the worst performing stock (our lonely star on stock heaven volkswagen) rose 'just' 3.23% and 21 of 30 companies had double digit gains! especially the 7 finance companies led by hypo real estate with +39.9% had huge gains. why? well, they will get all these taxpayers money directly ;-((
what about the u.s. markets? no comments needed, just look at the following table and tell me if u remember a day like that :-)):
dow jones .. 9.413,34 / +962,15 points / +11,38%
S&P500 ..... 1.005,91 / +106,69 points / +11,86%
nasdaq100 .. 1.429,54 / +159,74 points / +12,58%
what about my commodities? they rose slightly but not enough to move my initial stop-loss-levels higher and secure the virtual gains. and what about my trades today? here we go:
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #1
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (sell) / stop (buy)
trade type--------: short
entry date--------: 10/13/2008, 18:52
entry price-------: 8,994
initial stop-loss--: 9,011
new stop-loss----: 8,993
exit date---------: 10/13/2008, 18:56
exit price---------: 8,993
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)-------: $ 1
reason why + strategy: trying to trade some big moves in DJIA which i've expected as a profit taking selling because of unbelievable daily gains +9% after the HUUUUGE european bailout of financial institutions
lessons learned: nice trade; clever and FAST placement of initial stop-loss-limit as the DJIA moved fast in proposed direction; nice stop-loss-limit later on to secure the profit => the market ran just short time in my direction and turned back => OK
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #2
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (sell) / stop (buy)
trade type--------: short
entry date--------: 10/13/2008, 18:58
entry price-------: 8,983
initial stop-loss--: 8,997
new stop-loss----: 8,982
exit date---------: 10/13/2008, 19:02
exit price---------: 8,982
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)-------: $ 1
reason why + strategy: see above ...
lessons learned: nice trade; clever and FAST placement of initial stop-loss-limit as the DJIA moved fast in proposed direction; nice stop-loss-limit later on to secure the profit => the market ran just short time in my direction and turned back => OK
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #3
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (sell) / stop (buy)
trade type--------: short
entry date--------: 10/13/2008, 19:03
entry price-------: 8,979
initial stop-loss--: 8,991
new stop-loss----: 8,969
exit date---------: 10/13/2008, 19:10
exit price---------: 8,969
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)-------: $ 10
reason why + strategy: see above ...
lessons learned: nice trade; clever and FAST placement of initial stop-loss-limit as the DJIA moved fast in proposed direction; nice stop-loss-limit later on to secure the profit => OK
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #4
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (sell) / stop (buy)
trade type--------: short
entry date--------: 10/13/2008, 19:20
entry price-------: 8,968
initial stop-loss--: 8,979
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 10/13/2008, 19:22
exit price---------: 8,979
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)-------: ($ 11)
reason why + strategy: see above ...
lessons learned: clever and FAST placement of initial stop-loss-limit; the market didn't run in my anticipated direction ; exit with small loss after my initial stop-loss-limit was hit => OK
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #5
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (sell) / stop (buy)
trade type--------: short
entry date--------: 10/13/2008, 19:27
entry price-------: 8,961
initial stop-loss--: 8,981
new stop-loss----: 8,941
exit date---------: 10/13/2008, 19:33
exit price---------: 8,941
profit (loss) in %-: 0.22%
profit (loss)-------: $ 20
reason why + strategy: see above ...
lessons learned: nice trade; clever and FAST placement of initial stop-loss-limit as the DJIA moved fast in proposed direction; the market ran some time in my direction and i could place a nice stop-loss-limit to secure a nice profit => OK
btw, after that i've take a break (i was sooooo tired already :) and wanted come back for the last 30 trading minutes to trade the next swing down. what an illusion! the market changed its direction and moved up more than 100 points (till market close even additional 350 points => short-squeeze or PPT?) as if there were no stock-exchanges tomorrow! is that usual? are the folks buying at that levels normal? well, even when earning few bucks i was today definitely on the wrong side of the market an couldn't believe what i saw and was therefore not able to switch my mind today :o)
update on 2008 financial crisis:
after this small break on monday + tuesday, the crisis continued on wednesday: http://jarogruber.blogspot.com/2008/10/fear-instaed-of-greed.html
on friday crashed the german, japanese, u.s. stocks by up to -9% and the fear was everywhere! on the weekend decided the western european politicians to bail out the whole financial industry and promised the hugest money package in history of this planet (of course, it is money out of thin air as usual, because ALL of that countries run budget deficits and NONE of them has any significant savings, currency reserves or the like!); great britain decided even to buy shares of its banks, ... some additional comments needed? yes? really? ok, that's SOCIALISM FOR THE RICH !!!
well, the markets liked this bail-out! the german dax rose 11.4 % (!!!) as the worst performing stock (our lonely star on stock heaven volkswagen) rose 'just' 3.23% and 21 of 30 companies had double digit gains! especially the 7 finance companies led by hypo real estate with +39.9% had huge gains. why? well, they will get all these taxpayers money directly ;-((
what about the u.s. markets? no comments needed, just look at the following table and tell me if u remember a day like that :-)):
dow jones .. 9.413,34 / +962,15 points / +11,38%
S&P500 ..... 1.005,91 / +106,69 points / +11,86%
nasdaq100 .. 1.429,54 / +159,74 points / +12,58%
what about my commodities? they rose slightly but not enough to move my initial stop-loss-levels higher and secure the virtual gains. and what about my trades today? here we go:
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #1
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (sell) / stop (buy)
trade type--------: short
entry date--------: 10/13/2008, 18:52
entry price-------: 8,994
initial stop-loss--: 9,011
new stop-loss----: 8,993
exit date---------: 10/13/2008, 18:56
exit price---------: 8,993
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)-------: $ 1
reason why + strategy: trying to trade some big moves in DJIA which i've expected as a profit taking selling because of unbelievable daily gains +9% after the HUUUUGE european bailout of financial institutions
lessons learned: nice trade; clever and FAST placement of initial stop-loss-limit as the DJIA moved fast in proposed direction; nice stop-loss-limit later on to secure the profit => the market ran just short time in my direction and turned back => OK
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #2
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (sell) / stop (buy)
trade type--------: short
entry date--------: 10/13/2008, 18:58
entry price-------: 8,983
initial stop-loss--: 8,997
new stop-loss----: 8,982
exit date---------: 10/13/2008, 19:02
exit price---------: 8,982
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)-------: $ 1
reason why + strategy: see above ...
lessons learned: nice trade; clever and FAST placement of initial stop-loss-limit as the DJIA moved fast in proposed direction; nice stop-loss-limit later on to secure the profit => the market ran just short time in my direction and turned back => OK
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #3
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (sell) / stop (buy)
trade type--------: short
entry date--------: 10/13/2008, 19:03
entry price-------: 8,979
initial stop-loss--: 8,991
new stop-loss----: 8,969
exit date---------: 10/13/2008, 19:10
exit price---------: 8,969
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)-------: $ 10
reason why + strategy: see above ...
lessons learned: nice trade; clever and FAST placement of initial stop-loss-limit as the DJIA moved fast in proposed direction; nice stop-loss-limit later on to secure the profit => OK
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #4
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (sell) / stop (buy)
trade type--------: short
entry date--------: 10/13/2008, 19:20
entry price-------: 8,968
initial stop-loss--: 8,979
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 10/13/2008, 19:22
exit price---------: 8,979
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)-------: ($ 11)
reason why + strategy: see above ...
lessons learned: clever and FAST placement of initial stop-loss-limit; the market didn't run in my anticipated direction ; exit with small loss after my initial stop-loss-limit was hit => OK
item--------------: DJIA >> position closed, #5
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market (sell) / stop (buy)
trade type--------: short
entry date--------: 10/13/2008, 19:27
entry price-------: 8,961
initial stop-loss--: 8,981
new stop-loss----: 8,941
exit date---------: 10/13/2008, 19:33
exit price---------: 8,941
profit (loss) in %-: 0.22%
profit (loss)-------: $ 20
reason why + strategy: see above ...
lessons learned: nice trade; clever and FAST placement of initial stop-loss-limit as the DJIA moved fast in proposed direction; the market ran some time in my direction and i could place a nice stop-loss-limit to secure a nice profit => OK
btw, after that i've take a break (i was sooooo tired already :) and wanted come back for the last 30 trading minutes to trade the next swing down. what an illusion! the market changed its direction and moved up more than 100 points (till market close even additional 350 points => short-squeeze or PPT?) as if there were no stock-exchanges tomorrow! is that usual? are the folks buying at that levels normal? well, even when earning few bucks i was today definitely on the wrong side of the market an couldn't believe what i saw and was therefore not able to switch my mind today :o)
update on 2008 financial crisis:
after this small break on monday + tuesday, the crisis continued on wednesday: http://jarogruber.blogspot.com/2008/10/fear-instaed-of-greed.html
Saturday, October 11, 2008
crashy friday? it doesn't matter! few bucks arrived on my account, let's trade again :-)
what about the markets on friday? crazy, crazy, crazy! i've hoped so much that the markets will stop crashing, unfortunately they didn't. today it doesn't really matter if the reason for all these sell-offs was the panic and overreaction of western central banks with their stupid cut of rates or if it was something else. however, i still hope this financial crisis will not turn into a crisis of global economy ...
btw, the markets just now (friday morning):
japan -9%
germany -9% (here are again 29 of 30 stocks negative. as always, just the lonely star on the stock heaven is not. long last the volkswagen bubble, +19.9% today!)
usa will start in 3 hours, but as it crashed already yesterday (-7%), IMHO is there no reason to crash today again ...
well, the u.s. markets crashed anyway. dow fell bellow 7900 points to its lowest level since 2003. thx to the famous PPT there was so much crazy buying in the last 2 trading hours that it could move the index about 500 points higher to the weekly close of 8,451.
folks, i'm not sure about the end of the dollar rally (against the major currencies), but i'm still very bullish on commodities! just look at their current prices (orange juice, sugar, coffee, silver, nat. gas, zinc, ...), they are near their multi-year-lows ... and now look at the HUUUUGE amounts of paper and/or electronic money which was added to our planet in the last few days, weeks, months, ... , years (do u still remember greenspan's 1% rate orgy?). pls note that on the other side, there was by far not such an increase in goods + services => ??? yep, you are right! the price of 'real' assets will probably increase significantly .... ok, let's buy them :o) .
and what about the lessons learned from my previous failure? yep, even when price of something is unbelievable low, i will still use stop-loss-limits to protect my trading capital! stocks can easily fall to zero (in case of company bankruptcy) and commodities can fall much lower as my margin account could handle => therefore note that in my trading journal the 'initial stop-loss' - field must never be empty :-)
... to do: my 3 trades : o-juice, nat. gas, coffee, ... ok, now is sunday night and the cmc-trading platform online again ... why do they need every weekend to do their stupid software updates? what about people who would like to make their market analysis on the weekend and place their orders???
item--------------: orange juice
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/10/2008, 17:28
entry price-------: 77.1 cents
initial stop-loss--: 73.3 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 77.3 > 80.3
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is orange juice so unbelievable cheap that i would never believe that. folks, the 52 weeks high is 160,80 which is more then double the current price. orange juice is NOT a stock of a company which could go bankrupt, is it? let's bet on its price recovery!
lessons learned:
item--------------: natural gas
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/10/2008, 17:21
entry price-------: 7.08
initial stop-loss--: 6.69 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is coffee so unbelievable cheap that i will bet on its price recovery!
lessons learned:
item--------------: coffee
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/10/2008, 17:30
entry price-------: 115.5 cents
initial stop-loss--: 109.4 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 111.1 > 115.6
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is natural gas so unbelievable cheap that i will bet on its price recovery!
lessons learned:
update on 2008 financial crisis:
a small break on monday: http://jarogruber.blogspot.com/2008/10/crazy-people.html
... and the crisis continues on wednesday: http://jarogruber.blogspot.com/2008/10/fear-instaed-of-greed.html
btw, the markets just now (friday morning):
japan -9%
germany -9% (here are again 29 of 30 stocks negative. as always, just the lonely star on the stock heaven is not. long last the volkswagen bubble, +19.9% today!)
usa will start in 3 hours, but as it crashed already yesterday (-7%), IMHO is there no reason to crash today again ...
well, the u.s. markets crashed anyway. dow fell bellow 7900 points to its lowest level since 2003. thx to the famous PPT there was so much crazy buying in the last 2 trading hours that it could move the index about 500 points higher to the weekly close of 8,451.
folks, i'm not sure about the end of the dollar rally (against the major currencies), but i'm still very bullish on commodities! just look at their current prices (orange juice, sugar, coffee, silver, nat. gas, zinc, ...), they are near their multi-year-lows ... and now look at the HUUUUGE amounts of paper and/or electronic money which was added to our planet in the last few days, weeks, months, ... , years (do u still remember greenspan's 1% rate orgy?). pls note that on the other side, there was by far not such an increase in goods + services => ??? yep, you are right! the price of 'real' assets will probably increase significantly .... ok, let's buy them :o) .
and what about the lessons learned from my previous failure? yep, even when price of something is unbelievable low, i will still use stop-loss-limits to protect my trading capital! stocks can easily fall to zero (in case of company bankruptcy) and commodities can fall much lower as my margin account could handle => therefore note that in my trading journal the 'initial stop-loss' - field must never be empty :-)
... to do: my 3 trades : o-juice, nat. gas, coffee, ... ok, now is sunday night and the cmc-trading platform online again ... why do they need every weekend to do their stupid software updates? what about people who would like to make their market analysis on the weekend and place their orders???
item--------------: orange juice
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/10/2008, 17:28
entry price-------: 77.1 cents
initial stop-loss--: 73.3 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 77.3 > 80.3
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is orange juice so unbelievable cheap that i would never believe that. folks, the 52 weeks high is 160,80 which is more then double the current price. orange juice is NOT a stock of a company which could go bankrupt, is it? let's bet on its price recovery!
lessons learned:
item--------------: natural gas
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/10/2008, 17:21
entry price-------: 7.08
initial stop-loss--: 6.69 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is coffee so unbelievable cheap that i will bet on its price recovery!
lessons learned:
item--------------: coffee
units--------------: 1
order type--------: market
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 10/10/2008, 17:30
entry price-------: 115.5 cents
initial stop-loss--: 109.4 ... ... ... this field must never be empty :-)
new stop-loss----: 111.1 > 115.6
exit date---------:
exit price---------:
profit (loss) in %-:
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: in my opinion is natural gas so unbelievable cheap that i will bet on its price recovery!
lessons learned:
update on 2008 financial crisis:
a small break on monday: http://jarogruber.blogspot.com/2008/10/crazy-people.html
... and the crisis continues on wednesday: http://jarogruber.blogspot.com/2008/10/fear-instaed-of-greed.html
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
how bad is the current financial mess really?
folks, it's crazy!!! 6 central banks cut its interest rates in an emergency action today! usa, europe, great britain, ... cut the rates by soooo much (0.5 points) at the same time! how bad is the current financial mess really? i expect the markets will sell-off, but i hope i'm wrong as that would probably transfer the current financial crisis into a whole-economy-crisis! well, in few minutes will the u.s. stock exchanges open trading => we will see what happens next ...
... and the stocks did sell-off! but our PPT helped once again as there was some very strange buying after a dangerous -2% loss, then stocks bounced up, but to the end of the trading day they fell to their daily lows again, which is worse than bad for future developments :o(
(following passages are extracted from my posts @ http://www.informedtrades.com/135568-will-fed-lower-its-target-rate.html):
PLAN A.) the gold standard will come back to planet earth! earthlings, how do you feel about that? i mean, when all these folks outside take all their money from all these greedy banks. what about the fractional reserve banking? jaro, what does it mean? just answer 1 simple question: who are the first 10% @ the bank counter? assure you are among them as there are not more reserves there, if any! don't worry, cheers!
PLAN B.) we will get some next monetary reform and all the middle class will be swept away and all folks without gold, silver, land, houses (yes, houses!), oil, factories, van goghs, picassos, warhols etc. anyway. cheers again!
just look at the markets: fear + madness everywhere ...
japan: nikkei225 -9.38%
eurostoxx50 -6.54%
germany: dax30 -6.3% => here are 29 of 30 stocks negative, just volkswagen is not! no, there is no corporate buyback @volkswagen just now, there is just huuuuuge speculation out there. many trading blogs, stock newsletters and even money managers try to short volkswagen. my ex-money manager (i've fired him in the early march 2008) has shorted volkswagen at levels about 180 euros. his put options become worthless long time ago. yesterday quoted volkswagen @452 euros => short-squeeze! [10/28/2008, next short-squeeze, top €635, daily close €520]. well, there are many reasons why should volkswagen fall in price (it is more worth than mercedes, bmw, fiat, pegueot/citroen, GM, ford, nissan + renault + ... COMBINED! it is even more worth than toyota! this could be too much); but there are also some reasons why it could rise further [the 4 major stockholders: porsche (= majority owner) + the state of niedersachsen + porsche family members + piech family members DO NOT SELL any shares, so there is a limited supply, which is not good for the shorties trying to cover their shorts ;o]
______________________________________
volkswagen (VW) vs. rest of the world ... found today in webspace :o)
Toyota ... = 92 Mrd. Euro
VW ....... = 94 Mrd. Euro (>> 10/28/2008, €277.83 billion, intraday even much higher! VW is now the most 'valuable' company on earth! do you know what is the market capitalization of VW's majority owner porsche? about €8 billion. any additional comments needed?)
---------------------------
BMW ..... = 14,78 Mrd. Euro
Daimler .. = 24,02 Mrd. Euro
Renault .. = 9,59 Mrd. Euro
Peugeot . = 5,07 Mrd. Euro
Fiat ...... = 8,26 Mrd. Euro
GM ....... = 3,22 Mrd. Euro
Ford ...... = 4,84 Mrd. Euro
Mitsubishi = 4,66 Mrd. Euro
Hyundai .. = 8,18 Mrd. Euro
---------------------------
TOTAL ... = 82,62 Mrd. Euro
______________________________________
well, yesterday were the markets not any better as there was a lot of speculation about the expected emergency cut of rates ... in my opinion would every change of rates (especially a big one) bring additional fear into the current (irrational?) markets and additional sell-offs. just no change could add some stability ...
btw, in germany rallied today the highest capitalized stock (volkswagen) more than 40% from 290 euros to 452 (short-squeeze, see above :-) after that it fell back to 287 (-1.83%). do you call that efficient and/or rational markets? just in case you would think there was some company-related message out there today - there was none!
cheers again and again,
j.
please do not think that the worst was over, we were just in a middle of the crashy-week. if you still can handle our current financial mess, please follow (by a brave mouse click) to my comments on crash-friday: http://jarogruber.blogspot.com/2008/10/few-bucks-arrived-on-my-account-lets.html
2008 financial crisis:
just in case you've forgotten former analysis (+ possible solution :-) of this financial misery, here is the link4u: http://jarogruber.blogspot.com/2008/10/2008-financial-crisis-not-just-subprime.html
... and the stocks did sell-off! but our PPT helped once again as there was some very strange buying after a dangerous -2% loss, then stocks bounced up, but to the end of the trading day they fell to their daily lows again, which is worse than bad for future developments :o(
(following passages are extracted from my posts @ http://www.informedtrades.com/135568-will-fed-lower-its-target-rate.html):
PLAN A.) the gold standard will come back to planet earth! earthlings, how do you feel about that? i mean, when all these folks outside take all their money from all these greedy banks. what about the fractional reserve banking? jaro, what does it mean? just answer 1 simple question: who are the first 10% @ the bank counter? assure you are among them as there are not more reserves there, if any! don't worry, cheers!
PLAN B.) we will get some next monetary reform and all the middle class will be swept away and all folks without gold, silver, land, houses (yes, houses!), oil, factories, van goghs, picassos, warhols etc. anyway. cheers again!
just look at the markets: fear + madness everywhere ...
japan: nikkei225 -9.38%
eurostoxx50 -6.54%
germany: dax30 -6.3% => here are 29 of 30 stocks negative, just volkswagen is not! no, there is no corporate buyback @volkswagen just now, there is just huuuuuge speculation out there. many trading blogs, stock newsletters and even money managers try to short volkswagen. my ex-money manager (i've fired him in the early march 2008) has shorted volkswagen at levels about 180 euros. his put options become worthless long time ago. yesterday quoted volkswagen @452 euros => short-squeeze! [10/28/2008, next short-squeeze, top €635, daily close €520]. well, there are many reasons why should volkswagen fall in price (it is more worth than mercedes, bmw, fiat, pegueot/citroen, GM, ford, nissan + renault + ... COMBINED! it is even more worth than toyota! this could be too much); but there are also some reasons why it could rise further [the 4 major stockholders: porsche (= majority owner) + the state of niedersachsen + porsche family members + piech family members DO NOT SELL any shares, so there is a limited supply, which is not good for the shorties trying to cover their shorts ;o]
______________________________________
volkswagen (VW) vs. rest of the world ... found today in webspace :o)
Toyota ... = 92 Mrd. Euro
VW ....... = 94 Mrd. Euro (>> 10/28/2008, €277.83 billion, intraday even much higher! VW is now the most 'valuable' company on earth! do you know what is the market capitalization of VW's majority owner porsche? about €8 billion. any additional comments needed?)
---------------------------
BMW ..... = 14,78 Mrd. Euro
Daimler .. = 24,02 Mrd. Euro
Renault .. = 9,59 Mrd. Euro
Peugeot . = 5,07 Mrd. Euro
Fiat ...... = 8,26 Mrd. Euro
GM ....... = 3,22 Mrd. Euro
Ford ...... = 4,84 Mrd. Euro
Mitsubishi = 4,66 Mrd. Euro
Hyundai .. = 8,18 Mrd. Euro
---------------------------
TOTAL ... = 82,62 Mrd. Euro
______________________________________
well, yesterday were the markets not any better as there was a lot of speculation about the expected emergency cut of rates ... in my opinion would every change of rates (especially a big one) bring additional fear into the current (irrational?) markets and additional sell-offs. just no change could add some stability ...
btw, in germany rallied today the highest capitalized stock (volkswagen) more than 40% from 290 euros to 452 (short-squeeze, see above :-) after that it fell back to 287 (-1.83%). do you call that efficient and/or rational markets? just in case you would think there was some company-related message out there today - there was none!
cheers again and again,
j.
please do not think that the worst was over, we were just in a middle of the crashy-week. if you still can handle our current financial mess, please follow (by a brave mouse click) to my comments on crash-friday: http://jarogruber.blogspot.com/2008/10/few-bucks-arrived-on-my-account-lets.html
2008 financial crisis:
just in case you've forgotten former analysis (+ possible solution :-) of this financial misery, here is the link4u: http://jarogruber.blogspot.com/2008/10/2008-financial-crisis-not-just-subprime.html
new money, new trading strategy, new hope !!!
here we go! 220 'fresh' euros available. why this amout? well, it will sum up my overall amount for CFDs to 2222 euros. what a nice number, isn’t? do you like nice numbers? we mathematicians usually do :o).
=> good luck, my lovely CFD-account !!! and yes, i will always use stops :-)
=> good luck, my lovely CFD-account !!! and yes, i will always use stops :-)
Monday, October 6, 2008
margin call + black monday #2 (or just next monday:)
no money? no friends? no future? no hope?
NO WAY !!!!! at least my broker still loves me, just look into my inbox :o)):
well, my account is broken, the battle lost and about 200 euros away. could be worse, isn't it? how much worse? it could start to rain!! folks, but the war is not over yet! let's analyze the mistakes, let's find some new ammunition, let's take some break to recover (at least till next (black:) monday :-) and LET'S FIGHT AGAIN !
lessons learned: ooops, on friday i've learned that it was very healthy for my account TO HAVE STOP-LOSS-ORDERs in the market when trading DJIA (see trade #12 in http://jarogruber.blogspot.com/2008/10/2008-financial-crisis-not-just-subprime.html). folks, do you think i should use them also when i trade commodities? even if orange juice quotes @ 81.6 cents (= 3 years low), natural gas @ 7.21 (= very, very low), silver @11.15 (= hell, this is damned low!), coffee @ 121.7 (= 2 years low). should i? is this what u think? yeaaah?
if you are so clever then tell me, why ends larry williams his book 'long-term secrets to short-term trading' with the words: 'allways use stops.' why? why? come on, why? do you know it? i've proceeded just to page 149 of 317 right now, so there is still some hope to understand larry's words ...
hell! i've just looked @ my foreclosed account and it suddendly dawned on me! now i do understand! now i do know what's to do:
I WILL ALLWAYS USE STOPS IN MY TRADING ACCOUNT !!!
why? because i can never know how far a price for an item will fall (resp. rise), but i can allways know how much money i'm willing to lose on a particular trade! damned hell!
thx larry.
yours,
j.
x--------------------------x
... some market data ...
x--------------------------x
dax .......... -7.07%
tecdax ...... -11.27%
nikkei225 ... -4.25%
s&p500 ...... -3.85%
nasdaq ...... -4.34%
oil (brent) .. -6.11%
corn ......... -6.61%
suggar ...... -5.33%
soja ......... -7.06%
eur/usd ..... -1.17% (a new 52 weeks low for eur against the usd)
gold ......... +2.65%
x--------------------------x
yep, here is the overview about the liquidation of my positions (we will not call that 'trades' today, ok?):
item--------------: tecdax30 >> position closed
units--------------: 1
order type--------: liquidation
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 09/29/2008, 12:58
entry price-------: 699
initial stop-loss--:
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 10/06/2008, 15:16
exit price---------: 605
profit / loss in %-: (13.45%)
profit / loss------: (94 euros)
reason why + strategy: well, i had an long time limit order in the market. i didn't believe anymore that it could be filled as the german technology stocks index quotet already @ 750 euros. later in the evening fell the index price to unbelievable € 640, a daily loss of more than 7% (it's nothing compared to nasdaq100's -10%, isn't it?)
lessons learned: a very bad trade. a very big loss (13.45%). this position could recover the next few days and turned itself into a virtual profit, but the price didn't go high enough to allow me to place a stop-loss-order above my entry price. i've also expected at least a short-term stock market rally because of the huge bailout on financial institutions ($700 billion) which has just passed the u.s. congress. well, Mr. Market had a different opinion and crashed despite all good news ... thx goodness was that position liquidated as the next day fell the price additional 10% to 543 euros!!!
=> if the market wants to go in opposite direction as i do anticipate then i should accept its decision => what's the easiest way to assure it? probably to use a stop limit order from the beginning of EVERY trade!
item--------------: toronto60 >> position closed
units--------------: 1
order type--------: liquidation
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 09/29/2008, 15:15
entry price-------: 699.9
initial stop-loss--:
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 10/06/2008, 15:16
exit price---------: 611.2
profit / loss in %-: (12.67%)
profit / loss------: (88.7 cad)
reason why + strategy: well, i had an long time limit order in the market. i didn't believe anymore that it could be filled as the canadian stocks index quoted already @ 765 CAD two days before. later in the evening fell the index price to unbelievable 666 CAD.
lessons learned: a very bad trade. a very big loss (12.67%). this position could recover the next few days and quoted near my entry point, but the price didn't go high enough to allow me to place a stop-loss-order above my entry price. i've also expected at least a short-term stock market rally because of the huge bailout on financial institutions ($700 billion) which has just passed the u.s. congress. well, Mr. Market had a different opinion and crashed despite all good news. the next day fell the price a little bit lower to 591 cad, then could recover to 598 cad as many commodity stocks in that index supported the late increase.
=> if the market wants to go in opposite direction as i do anticipate then i should accept its decision => what's the easiest way to assure it? to use a stop limit order from the beginning of EVERY trade!
item--------------: orange juice >> position closed
units--------------: 1
order type--------: liquidation
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 09/25/2008, 15:03
entry price-------: 92.2 cents
initial stop-loss--:
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 09/25/2008, 15:03
exit price---------: 80.6 cents
profit (loss) in %-: (12.58%)
profit (loss)------: 11.6 cents => ($116)
reason why + strategy: well, in my opinion is mr. market trying to build a bottom in the orange juice price. let's bet on that!
lessons learned: HUGE loss as the market price fell much deeper as i could imagine in my worst dream => in my next trades i will use a stop limit order from the beginning of EVERY trade!
item--------------: orange juice >> position closed
units--------------: 1
order type--------: liquidation
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 08/15/2008, 15:11
entry price-------: 104.3 cents
initial stop-loss--:
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 09/25/2008, 15:03
exit price---------: 80.6
profit (loss) in %-: 23.7 cents => ($237)
profit (loss)------:
reason why + strategy: i felt that the price of orange juice is soooo cheap (temporary high in october 2007: 160.80 usd), therefore i've opened an initial position and didn't set a stop-loss order
lessons learned: a HUGE loss as the market price fell much deeper as i could imagine in my worst dream => in my next trades i will use a stop limit order from the beginning of EVERY trade!
item--------------: natural gas >> position closed
units--------------: 1
order type--------: liquidation
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 09/24/2008, 11:57
entry price-------: 8.09
initial stop-loss--:
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 09/25/2008, 15:03
exit price---------: 7.04
profit (loss) in %-: (12.98%)
profit (loss)------: 1.05 => ($105)
reason why + strategy: well, i had an order @ 6.96 which wasn't filled for few days, oil was rising strongly, natural gas also 2 days in a row. well, i've thought that the winter-rally in natural gas just started and didn't like to miss to increase my planned position at these still quite cheap levels... therefore i've decided to buy 1 contract 'market' before the opening in usa. wooop, after climbing to 8.19 fell the gas price nearly 7% to the market low @ 7.63 ==> ==>
lessons learned: a HUGE loss as the market price fell much deeper as i could imagine in my worst dream => in my next trades i will use a stop limit order from the beginning of EVERY trade!
item--------------: natural gas >> position closed
units--------------: 1
order type--------: liquidation
trade type--------: long
entry date--------: 09/22/2008, 18:37
entry price-------: 7.63
initial stop-loss--:
new stop-loss----:
exit date---------: 09/25/2008, 15:03
exit price---------: 7.04
profit (loss) in %-: (7.73%)
profit (loss)------: 0.59 => ($59)
reason why + strategy: well, i had an order @ 6.96 which wasn't filled today, i've missed a better entry point (because of my office job :o) in the early afternoon @7.40, so i 've opened an initial position @7.63 in the evening. i will place 2 additional buy orders @6.66 and @6.06 and thus participate in the seasonal winter rally :o))
lessons learned: this is still a too big loss as the market price fell much deeper as i could imagine in my worst dream => in my next trades i will use a stop limit order from the beginning of EVERY trade!
item__________: silver >> position closed
units__________: 1
order type______: liquidation
trade type______: long
entry date______: 09/17/2008, 18:33
entry price_____: 11.80
initial stop-loss_:
new stop-loss___:
exit date_______: 09/25/2008, 15:03
exit price_______: 11.26
profit (loss) in %_: (4.57%)
profit (loss)_____: 0.54 => ($ 54)
reason why + strategy: today's sell off in stocks and especially in financial sector (nasdaq100 dropped -5.31%, dow -4.08%, AIG -45.33%, morgan stanley -24.22%, wachovia -20.76%, ..., goldman sachs -13.92%, ...) and my slightly higher overall account size (because my remaining silver position increased already about +9%) allowed me to buy a 2nd silver contract at 11.80 usd. well, i could also buy it at 11.44 half an hour earlier but i just returned home from my office and preferred to have a dinner and to think about possible trades :-)). folks, even when i've entered the silver market soooo late, the price moved intraday up to 12.13 (!!). when will i sell this position? hopefully at much, much higher levels, maybe somewhere between 15 and 20 dollars :o))
lessons learned: this is still a too big loss as the market price fell much deeper as i could imagine in my worst dream => in my next trades i will use a stop limit order from the beginning of EVERY trade!
item___________: coffee >> position closed
units___________: 1
order type_______: market
trade type_______: long
entry date_______: 09/18/2008, 15:00
entry price______: 133.9 cents
initial stop-loss__:
new stop-loss____:
exit date_______: 09/25/2008, 15:03
exit price_______: 115.0
profit (loss) in %_: (14,12%)
profit (loss)_____: 18.9 cents => ($ 189)
reason why + strategy: i considered to jump into the market as the coffee price was near the 52 weeks lows and there is usually a strong seasonal picture moving coffee much, much higher to the end of the year ...
lessons learned: a HUGE loss as the market price fell much deeper as i could imagine in my worst dream => in my next trades i will use a stop limit order from the beginning of EVERY trade!
the question of the day: WHY fell commodity prices soooo deeeeep?
- margin calls or need for liquidity in general seems to be the main reason for the current sell-offs in commodities. in that case are hedge funds, banks, private people like forced to sell everything they have, regardless on its price. if they do not (like me) the brokers could and should sell themselves the assets of their clients. thx goodness, cmc sold all my positions, otherwise there would be even a higher loss on my account :o((.
- the 2nd important reason could IMHO be the assumption that the coming recession will be longer and more difficult than originally anticipated.
- then we still have a stronger usd comparing to other major currencies
- and maybe have been the commodities also a little bit too expensive in february/march of this year ...
well, it's not a tasty cocktail for commodity bulls like me ;o((. but what surprises me most is the fact, that even in epicentre of the current financial crisis are the precious metals soooo cheap and falling further. i think, there was probably just 1 real exception (= real fear in the market!) to this 'behaviour' as on wednesday 2 weeks ago (or is it already 3 weeks ago?) the actors on the financial markets suddenly 'dropped' u.s. treasuries and moved to cash + gold. btw, i believe that this was the day where gold jumped 90 usd higher in few hours (or minutes) for its highest daily gain and bernanke/paulson announced the proposal for the $700 billion bailout in the last 1-2 hours of trading day for the first time ...
damned hell! by watching all these huge losses it is so clear to me that the main reason for my failure was the fact, that i couldn't imagine the huuuge sell-offs and didn't accept Mr. Market's opinion. THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT !!! folks, i can never know how far a price for an item will fall (resp. rise), but i must always know how much money i'm willing to lose on a particular trade! THEREFORE:
I WILL ALWAYS USE STOPS IN MY TRADING ACCOUNT !!!
i hope i will remember this lesson forever :o))
eof
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