armageddon 4 commodity bugs ;o(

ugly days, ugly guys!

hell, the 1st crashy day for commodities this year, let's call that armageddon 4 commodity bugs ;o(

well, there were many of them last year (approx 10 days, i think), read abt one of these ugly days here ...

what's my idea 4 this blog post? hmmm, i'm going to count these nasty money losing days in 2010, so in december there will be some number out there :-). of course, it will be subjective and maybe i will also miss few of them (esp. when on holidays!), but i think it will help me 2 track + understand the markets, so what?

well, i plan to update that blog post regularly and maybe even post few comments later abt some specific issues on some of the crashy days like 2day, ok?

btw, i believe that we are in a early phase of hyper-inflationary rally, so my portfolio is gold + silver + commodities + these sectors' stocks long only, of course :-)

few of 2day's 'highlights' :o(

• my portfolio -3.06%
• corn -7.10%
• wheat -7.63%
• gold -2.11%
• silver -2.36%
• oil (wti) -2.41%
• lead 5.53%
• zinc -3.94%
• DJIA -0.34%
• nasdaq -1.30%
• ...
• btw, yesterday was orange juice -11%. crazy, isn't it? well, the most commodities rallied the last few weeks, that's prolly the overreaction into the another direction :-). do you still remember our homo sapiens financialis?

hell, is the world going 2 break apart? let's check the news, if any, which could cause such a downturn ,,,,

armageddon #2, 01/20/2010: yesterday an all-time-high, 2day the 2nd armageddon! well, we never know what's next! hell, maybe that's also one of the reasons why i like the financial markets so much, isn't it? it would be boring if everything was easy

silver and lead -5%, gold -2.5%, agriculture approx -2%, oil -2.5% .... the most of my stocks are down 3% - 8%, my daily 'performance' is -2.91% ... prolly just thx 2 my biggest single position scorpio mining, which is +0.0% today. well, my guess which i have posted few days ago that the most stupid folks sold their scorpio shares soooo cheap already is prolly true, as there was not much volume 2day ...

any cold comfort? yep! i could move the next company from my gold bugs fair watch list into my portfolio as the soooo low limit was hit today - welcome, moly mines (australia ~ molybdenum, copper, iron ore), welcome!

armageddon #3, 01/21/2010: no comments
armageddon #4, 01/26/2010: silver -4%
armageddon #5, 01/27/2010: silver -2.5%, natural gas -3.5%, zinc -5.07% ... all exchange traded commodities despite orange juice (+1.5%) are down, down, down ... so is my portfolio

.... folks, i think i have to stop that 'counter' as there are too many armageddons out there ... or find a new definition for my pain facing all that losses

armageddon #6, 02/04/2010: commodities collapsed on a much stronger usd (e.g. +1.37% against its paper buddy eur):silver -6.66%; gold -3.92%, DJIA -2.61%, my portfolio -3.70%,wti oil -5.53%, .copper -3.18%, ... many of my gold/silver companies (even the industry leaders) are down between 5% (barrick gold) and 12% (hecla miniong), it's just crazy :o(

btw, if i would have any money now, i would BUY all that fallen angels like 1st majestic silver, impact silver, hecla mining, orko silver etc. ... well, i've bought cardero resource corp. + oroco resource corp quite cheap in the last 2 days (btw, i could get cardero 5% cheaper) as i had some remaining money at my trading account and couldn't believe why do the folks sell cardero much, much, much cheaper than their recently received cash reserves and why do the folks sell oroco @ CAD 0.22 when the insiders/managers paid CAD 0.25 two weeks ago => ???

#jarobuys silver producer scorpio mining AGAIN + linear gold + halo resources + moly mines + oroco res. + cardero res. :o)

(source: http://www.scorpiomining.com/)

hell, scorpio (TSX: SPM) was already my biggest position, but i've added few more shares 2day. why? the company's news flow is soooooo great, they've just bought a gold project in nevada (well, there must be lot of gold, i think, just look at few of my nevada based companies like u.s. gold, miranda gold, vg gold, coral gold, ... here and of course, do not forget the big ones like barrick, newmont, etc!) ... got it?... they've bought => they have money => they do not need any stupid financing, they can afford to expand their growth from own resources ... well, i guess their silver-zinc-lead-copper 'nuestra senora' mine in mexico produces enough cash for this kind of acquisitions, you know?

what abt mr. market? well, the stock is despite the right now soaring gold/silver prices down -1.52% => ??? => what's your guess, who is right this time?

a) me

b) mr. market

c) both

d) none of us

hell, that investment stuff is soooooo easy

addendum 01/13/2010:

yabbadabbadooo! folks, i've welcomed the crashy gold/silver prices the last 2 days and increased my scorpio minig position @ CAD 0.67 and CAD 0.68 a lot (at least a lot from my newly @ lynx brokers opened account's size perspective ) + entered a small initial position in linear gold (LRR @TSX). well, i could get linear gold quite cheap! folks, is there a chap/girl out there who would explain the strange behavior of scorpio mining 2 me? hell, they didn't break apart like the most companies in their peer group did (abt 7-15% down in 2 days) ... but they also do not go up now as their peers do right now ... and it is not abt the volume as the volume remains avarage except 5th of january, where there was maybe 7 to 10 times the average volume i think ,,, => any ideas out there?


addendum 01/18/2010:
OMG! just 2 trading days later! scorpio is +11.94% today! the volume was approx twice the usual amount! no news, of course :-). my guess?
1.) these many stupid folks who were willing to sell their scorpio shares that cheap are out of the market
2.) these few folks who want to increase/enter their positions understood that there will never be a cheaper share price out there, so they started to buy at current price and bid it up a little bit :-)


btw, i have bought a small initial position in an additional canadian microcap, the gold-copper-zinc explorer halo resources (TSX: HLO). why? well, i couldn't longer watch how my limit order is not going to be fullfilled and the share price is climbing higher & higher ... so i have increased my limit from CAD 0.05 to CAD 0.1 today and got few shares @ CAD 0.095 ... damn! of course, it is expensive like hell and close to the yesterday's new 52 weeks high and the like and so on ... but you know what? i had no money a month ago as halo traded @ CAD 0.05 because i've waited for the 'capitalization' of my new brokerage account and also bought other stuff and also hoped halo will come back into its former (lower) trading range, so what? well, if the share price should fell to CAD 0.06 or CAD 0.05 sometime in the future i will prolly buy few more shares ... if not? hmmmmm, i will enjoy the development of my current position i think :-)

addendum 02/06/2010: folks, in the last crashy week there were 3 more low-low-low buy limit orders hit and so i could get moly mines (molybdenum in australia), oroco resources (gold in mexico. btw, i got the shares @ CAD 0.22 despite the recent private placement in favor of management & insiders @ CAD 0.25 per share) and increased my stake in cardero resources (iron ore in peru)

hell, hell, hell! that investment stuff is soooooo damned easy

addendum 04/06/2010: i was right, mr. market was wrong, wrong, wrong :-)

yabbadabbdoooo! scorpio mining (SPM) is +20.3% today (a new much much much higher 52 weeks high!), ten times the usual volume, no news, of course! the latest news release 2 days ago deflagrated without any impact cos the stock traded +0.0% the whole day after the earnings message came out => markets are inefficient, of course!

euphoria, pls never go away from me (to the next investor / money manager / hedge fund / trader or the like) ...

doubled my initial position in monument mining (MMY) 2day

folks, i've (more than) doubled my initial micro position in monument mining 2day. thx 2 mr. market's crazy shakes last week and thx 2 the panic out there i could buy it even cheaper than the 1st tranche...

i can't imagine why do the ppl sell gold/silver mines 20% below their price 1 week ago 'cos IMHO the gold mines have been as profitable when 1 oz gold sold at $1,060 as they are today at the same gold price, no matter if the price was the last 2 or 3 days a little bit lower, isn't? well, it doesn't matter for me, but would you call the markets rational?

well, the monument mining (MMY) stock is +9.68% today, the crazy german folks sold it through the whole day 5-10% below its canadian price, so i'm not gonna 2 complain about the homo sapiens (read comment #2) today :=)

the dear readers of my blog prolly remember cardero resources. why? it's just the next example for german craziness: cardero is -3.93% in germany and +6.45% in canada 2day. any conclusions? yep, here we go:

REMEMBER: buy unpopular & unsexy stocks in germany and sell them (watch out, that's the clou!) in germany if they become modern and everyone's + her neighbor's darling again :o))

ps: monument mining (MMY) will attend munich's precious metals fair next friday & saturday => let's talk 2 company management abt all coming up projects/developments there ...

pps: where come the fresh investment money from? hmmmmmm, it's a secret in general but in particular i can only tweet you it's my next year's pocket-money my wife gives me once a month and she doesn't perceived i've stolen it from our bank account this year! ... btw, it is ONLY €160 (an unheard of brassiness, you agree?) ... "and do not waste them on your stupid stocks again, you damned money-wasting gorilla moron, you! i hate you!" ... oh, my dear, what did i do in my former life i got such a sorrowful karma this time? LOL

addendum november 4, 2009 => monument monumental!

folks, that investment stuff is sooooo easy!

these kind monument mining guys have waited till i could buy my full line on that stock with my 2nd tranche a day or two ago and today is the stock +36.67% why? who cares? ... just kidding ...

well, they've announced today they've produced their first gold in malaysia, which they said they will start to produce in october in their former investors' message on September 16, 2009 ... prolly have the homo sapiens financialis out there forgot about that and sold that stock soooooo cheap for soooo long, unbelievable ... [btw, i've got that stock @ approx CAD0.3, the current price is CAD0.41 and the all-time-high was CAD1.2 => there is still a lot off upside potential there, isn't it? and on top they do generate cash-flow from their gold production now! i still can't understand why nobody liked that company ...]

ps: next explorer out of my portfolio moved to the (a little bit boring) producer division :-(

pps: freiheit, i hope your investment switched into green ink area today as well + thX 4 your $$ information above again

what abt the book value of a company? i've bought 2 more commodity stocks 2day

i couldn't resist the temptation and bought (still cheap enough ) two more commodity stocks before these crazy price jumps today:

• cbh resources - base metals, gold in australia
• cardero resources - iron ore, copper, precious metals in peru, usa, argentina

folks, cardero's market capitalization is approx $56m. they've sold one of their iron ore properties in peru to a chinese investor for $100m and will receive the remaining $88m soon. what about working capital, book value, etc? they will not throw all that money out of window or gamble in casinos like dave & shoot recently ( lol), will they?

it sounds like a sound investment 2 me. i think benjamin graham & warren buffett would be very proud of me .

to see all comments, pls visit the informedtrades website here.

addendum, december 19, 2009: just wanna borrow CAD 87.341 million, who's gonna help me?

folks, stock markets are sooo crazy, you know? there are days i don't believe my eyes! do u know what do i do then?

well, i watch the unexpected stock price quote, look 4 possible company news, read the company message twice, look at the quote again, read the message again, sometime even try to put some funny numbers into my calculator (and always throw the calculator away as it neither gives me a result nor an answer as i'm prolly too stupid to use it anyway), then take a walk, drink next cup of coffee, watch the new quote after returning back ... btw, you can call yourself 'happy' because you don't need 2 hear how ugly do i swear abt the sooo stupid homo sapiens financialis on days like that

i know, dear readers of my blog, you still remeber these strange cardero resources guys with all their strange iron ore, gold, copper projects in peru/usa/argentina, don't you?

well, the current quote was abt +25% today. me, happy, thought: hell, they've found the next eldorado or got a bulk of money from FED for ZERO interest rate or BOTH! forget it, nothing like that happened! what was the market mover 2day then? yep, the chinese partners have paid the remaining USD 88 million (USD is correct!) on their major peruvian iron ore property. hmmm, of course they did, why shouldn't they? well, the stock closed trading @ its day low, which was +14.62%, anyway.

we've spoken abt all these book value / cash reserves / etc. things above. hmmmm, what's your guess concerning the current market capitalization of cardero? ... you are right, it is only CAD 87.341 million. again, CAD is correct! also i don't see the current cad/usd ratio i can tell you the buck is even stronger than the loonie at the moment! (i have both currencies as usd/eur + cad/eur pairs in my watch list, because i do sometimes compare (~not compute! still the same calculator issue) the prices of my u.s. + canadian stocks in germany and america, you know?)

UNBELIEVABLE! the've just got USD 88 million + still have plenty of cash from the 1st rate payment of USD 12m + mineral deposits in peru/usa/argentina + investments in other companies like the 2 which i've posted above + petty cash + whatever else they own/posses !!! do you call markets RATIONAL?

well, lets borrow the antic CAD 87.341 million + buy the whole company + enjoy the UNBELIEVABLE!-assets!!!

hell, hell, hell! this investing stuff is sooooooo easy :-)

thx, mr. market, thx!

ps: does someone have the telephone number of the money-printing-wonder bernanke? of course, just in case there will be not enough money to borrow inside the blogger community :-)