edelmetallmesse 2016

next edelmetallmesse (precious metals fair) aka gold + silver show took place in munich again :-)

well, there were many interesting presentations about the financial and geopolitical situation in the the world as gold investments (silver investments ditto) have much to do with difficult times like the ours: shaky peace + dwindling freedom + undemocratic acting governments in the society we live in => many speakers told we should protest in the streets (as i already do every monday), so let's CRASH the SYSTEM; my dears or at least let's protect ourselves against the growing NWO ...
of course, there were also few chart analysis & pure price prediction presentations which i didn't visit at all.

erich hambach ~ let's inform the ignorant mainstream people about the presumable problems in our society 

  matthias weik & marc friedrich

 thomas bachheimer

 thomas bachheimer

 thorsten schulte (silberjunge)

david morgan ~ the curve of mania

max otte ~ suggestion for current investment strategy

folker hellmeyer, bremer landesbank ~ a brilliant public speaker and smart pro-european (political) economist

the conference room in the public transport museum (MVG museum, münchen)

electric cars need a lot of copper, you know? tesla showed by gianni kovacevic's copper bank 

i've got a nice dividend from my dear endeavour silver miners, a silver coin similar to this one:

source: here (2010)

the very good presentations i've attended at day #1. of course, i have left bad / boring presentations immediately :-)

• erich hambach
• volker schnabel (mack & weise vermögensverwaltung)
• matthias weik & marc friedrich
• dietmar siebholz started with some problems in germany, but later he just promoted gianni kovacevic's copper bank
• thomas bachheimer
• thorsten schulte (silberjunge)

day #2:

• claus vogt, krisensicher investieren
• david morgan, the morgan report
• peter denk (only 20 minutes)
• prof. max otte
• bill holter
• excellon resources inc. ~ silver producer ~ one of the oldest positions in my commodity oriented portfolio
• folker hellmeyer, bremer landesbank ~ a brilliant public speaker and smart pro-european (political) economist

well, i've increased my commodity stocks positions as well and i'm going to buy bought few more on monday mostly at market opening in USA/CANADA in a sharp declining commodity market. gold + silver were down a lot and USD was up in the european markets => thus many of my limit orders were filled at a lower level then specified by me on sunday ~ 1 EUR = 1.477 CAD; 1 EUR = 1.103 USD => good luck, my sweet portfolio warriors :-):

• excellon resources @CAD 1.94 => they are going to double production and to cut in half the costs in Q1/2017
• vista gold @ USD 1.05 => i just had few USD from dividends left in my CAD based account, so i've slightly increased one of my few USD positions
• first mining finance @ CAD 0.79 => keith neumeyer, the CEO of my single biggest stock position first majestic silver, started the company to take advantage of crashed prices for exploration properties and wants to wait to sell them later as the markets improve. let's wait with him ;o)

• first majestic silver @ CAD 10.76 ~ my single biggest position ~ existing position increased
• bhp billiton (ADRs @ USD 35.11 ~ existing position increased
• endeavour silver @ CAD 6.27 ~ existing position increased
• great panther silver @ CAD 1.80 ~ existing position increased
• international tower hill mines @ CAD 0.99 ~ new position opened because of comparison of peer group seen in first mining finance presentation slides
• spanish mountain gold @ CAD 0.14 ~ new position opened because of comparison of peer group seen in first mining finance presentation slides
• nickel one @ CAD 0.075 ~ new position opened because of talks with CEO at the fair
• pretium resources @ CAD 12.99 ~ new position opened because of comparison of peer group seen in first mining finance presentation slides
• orex minerals @ CAD 0.465 ~ existing position increased
• south32 @ USD 9.61~ existing position increased ~ south32 is a subsidiary of bhp billiton for the southern hemisphere
• victoria gold @ CAD 0.6 ~ existing position increased
• exeter resource @CAD 1.55 ~ new position opened because of comparison of peer group seen in first mining finance presentation slides
• 92 resources ~ lithium in Northwest Territories, canada ~ existing position increased
• zimtu capital @ CAD 0.19 ~ existing position increased

more pictures / slides here

link to last year's event: edelmetallmesse 2015

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caledonia mining ~ gold in zimbabwe

update november, 2014: caledonia + endeavour are still alive and struggling in the low metal price environment ...

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there was an investor lunch event with 3 companies in munich:

• endeavour silver
• EnWave
• caledonia mining (TSX: CAL)

source: caledonia's website

i have already endeavour + enwave in my portfolio, so let's give also caledonia a try and yes, let's support the economy down there. let's also hope the country will stop destroying its economy soon. they've had already destroyed its currency via hyper-inflation in 2009, so it is hopefully enough. of course, it is a long way to go till zimbabwe reaches its old rhodesian levels, because 3 decades of mugabe's terror and mismanagement made from the former switzerland of africa the probably poorest country on earth.

have you ever seen an 100 trillion dollar note? the highest face 'value' ever printed in the history of mankind? well, it was before the zimbabwe dollar was replaced by USD and south african rand in january 2009.

maybe few key points about caledonia mining

• no debt
• $25m cash
• fully indigenised aka 49% owned blanket gold mine in zimbabwe
• low cost operation (cash-costs 2013 were $609/oz, all-in sustaining costs $972/oz ... not bad at current gold price of approximately $1,300/oz
• 2013 production 45,517 oz gold and (very) slowly rising
• internally funded expansion plans (because there is currently no debt financing available in zimbabwe
• last but not least, they've started to pay a 7% dividend p.a. in january 2014

btw, i had already a gold producer from zimbabwe in my portfolio, new dawn mining, but they gone bankrupt, so i have lost all money invested :(. trading + investing is a risky game, you know?

eof

silver analysis by tekmnd, a guy who invests and risks his own money in the markets

silverrrrrr produced by endeavour silver

dear friends, the gold and silver prices are in a free fall, the blood bath in the miners and explorers sectors is far from over yet, so what's going on? let's post an interesting analysis made by a buddy of mine and the co-host of the informedtrades.com community, tekmnd. he is (among others) a trader and a silver buyer himself, so he prefers to do his own due diligence, you know? what does it mean? as you will discover soon, his analysis is completely different from the silver gurus analyses you can get all over the internet and/or mainstream media. unlike the silver gurus who are often coin dealers, newsletter writers, commodity (indexes) promoters etc and thus there is often a conflict of interests indeed, tekmnd invests and risks his own money ...

the silver analysis was originally posted here at InformedTrades yesterday, enjoy my re-print:

Silver dropped pretty hard this week. When I hear comments from the 'silver community,' it is so obvious that no one gets it.
Let's break down what happened-
US Mint lost money last year. Bullion demand was way down.
The world silver interim report in Nov showed that supply was way up and growing, and demand was declining. The week the Interim report came out, Sprott's headline was "demand is about to overtake supply."
The mint scaled back production and forced a sell out right after.

The sell out was sold as a big rush of demand.
The mint sell out was pushed as a shortage of supply when it had nothing to do with the physical supply of silver. I saw several videos claiming that the mint selling out was because producers couldn't keep up with supply when that had nothing to do with the sellout (and supply is at record high levels right now). The sellout was from the mint scaling back production to force all supply to sell out before the new release came out.

David Morgan first made videos suggesting price would go over $50 this year, and then made a video with a graph showing the price going into the hundreds.
Silver doctors and BrotherJohnF made videos/articles with false claims of silver costing $30 to produce, and said it meant silver would have to shoot up soon.
Silver doctors ran articles asking people if they were "all in" because price was about to shoot up.
Jim Rogers said that you couldn't buy coins when they were on sale.

Not mentioned by any of the so called experts was the Nov Interim report showing supply at record high levels.
Not mentioned was that less bullion coins sold in 2012 than in 2011 or in 2010.
Not mentioned was that many miners production levels beat estimates in 2012.
Not mentioned was that silver reserves and resources had a major increase in 2012.
Not mentioned was the fact that inventories have been massively increasing.

Instead people were told that costs to produce are $30 when they are $11.
That supply is down when it is up.
That demand is overtaking supply when it is down.
That industrial demand is increasing exponentially when it was down last year and down 3 of the last 4 years.
That producers can't keep up with demand when inventories are at almost record high levels.

Anyone even catching on to the fact that my last vid showed that Fresnillo is growing by 75% to 100% in the next 5 years? That increase alone offsets the expected increase in industrial demand.

Anyone talking about the fact the reserves just majorally increased at many producers pretty much making the silver running out lie now a total joke? KGHM has just increased their reserves to 40 years of silver reserves (meaning they have proved that they can mine silver out for at least the next 40 years as long as silver is over $22 per ounce spot). Pan American, Fresnillo and Hochschild increases their reserves and resources every year. In fact, increasing reserves and resources on an ongoing basis is Pan American's mission statement on every financial statement they release.

Nope- you were told that "supply is tight, silver is running out, demand is up, industrial use is increasing (down last year, and down 3 of the last 4 years), and that the price decline is all a big conspiracy."

The 2013 World Survey comes out in 11 days. It is expected to yield results that are not favorable to the price of silver. Price is dropping heading into the release of this report.

I have said for 3 months this would happen (price would drop heading into this report).
Please pay attention next time 

Cheers
Tek

~~~

a great update, dear tek even if so sad for gold + silver bugs ...

and yes, at my favorite coin dealer, there was never a real shortage in physical gold of silver supply in the last few years. only in late 2008 there were almost no silver coins available and the premiums of physical silver coins/bars shoot up to 40% above the paper silver price. at that time my dealer started to sell silver concentrate in 1 kg bags (which means there still was enough silver to buy)

anyway, go gold bugs go and lets crash the fraudulent paper money system now 

~~~
what about one of tek's videos?

~~~
... and this is the jim roger's interview tek refers to 

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last but not least, a news release i just got right now. there was a landslide in the 2nd largest U.S. silver mine and world’s largest copper mine kennecott in utah which is owned by rio tinto on april 10th, so the supply side could be hurt to some degree soon. read the whole news release here
~~~

eof

endeavour silver (TSX: EDR)

a nice update on endeavour silver's operations at their investor lunch event in munich 2day ... well, there is everything fine at endeavour (=one of my top 5 portfolio positions by current $$ value):

• rising silver production from their 2 producing mines in mexico
• falling cash costs (only $5.53 per ounce of silver)
• rising cash flow
• huuuge exploration program
• no debt
• and yes, 2011 is the very 1st year endeavour is going to make an overall profit. how did they manage to become a $1billion company by losing money each year? well, ive told ya before mining is a strange business, didnt i?
• what abt dividends? well, they dont pay any yet, maybe next year, who knows? and yes, there was an metal 'dividend' this time, just look how pretty 1 oz Ag can be:

pls decide by yourself whats head whats tail, my dear ;-)

yep, the coin is different than the one from last 'dividend', isnt it?

precious metals fair in munich

munich, new city hall

a great event, as always :-)

• day zero ~ a passion lounge with zimtu capital in the office of cm equity group in the very center of munich ~ of course ive welcomed the chance 2 walk a little bit through the streets of munich and yes, after 20+ years in munich ive visited the city hall's tower for the very 1st time (shame on me, i know) ~ city hall pictures 
• day 1 ~ the key speaker 2day was (billionaire + gold bug) eric sprott ~ sooo many booths of sooo many companies fighting for attention of investors + newsletter writers ~ many busy bullion dealers have sold sooooo much (physical!) gold + silver i believe ~ low quality fast food in between ~ many interesting presentations (at 3 stages) ~ coin dealer's pro aurum reception in the evening
• day 2 ~ the key speaker was james turk, ive visited also few other presentations and talked to the company representatives of my portfolio's stocks i didnt manage to on the 1st day :-)

miranda gold's CEO ken cunnigham + me ... btw, miranda is my oldest (still independent) stock in my portfolio, currently struggling like hell ;-(

few more pictures from the gold+silver+commodities show? just move here + enjoy

any investment ideas? well i will prolly post few comments abt some companies ive been impressed most (and bought few shares) when i will have some time to do so and link that stories in the list below. do u agree, my dear?

• amerigo resources ~ soooo undervalued, profitable, dividend paying chile based Cu+Mo company
• baha mining ~ they havent been at the show, i just spoke to a buddy of mine abt them :-)
• cap-ex ventures ~ bad, bad timing ~ 3 weeks ago was the price justr 1/3 of 2days level :-(
• colt resources ~ tungsten + gold in portugal, a rob mcewen company
• dynasty metals & mining ~ highly recomended by one of the magazines out there
• endeavour silver ~ one of my all-time-favorites
• equitas resources ~ copper, copper, copper ... btw, by my purchase of few stocks on day zero (wednesday) ive increased the value of the company by CAD 500,000 ... yep, i was the only buyer and moved the stock price 10% higher  ... hmmmm, strange junior mining stocks ;-)
• 1st majestic silver ~ 
• focus metals ~ graphite & graphene in canada
• focus minerals ~ my dear australian cannibals
• gogold resources ~ bad, bad timing ~ yesterday was the stock CAD 1.33 (ask price) but i hadnt any money on my account, today CAD 1.54 :-(
• orex minerals ~ new project of orko silvers mngmt
• ovoca gold ~ gold in russia
• rio alto mining ~ gold in peru
• rye patch gold ~ gold in nevada, highly recomended by one of the magazines out there
• scorpio mining ~ my biggest portfolio position
• tamaka gold ~ private company, going to go publich in late december / early january
• etc

btw, i didnt get a picture with the key speaker this time (canadian billionaire eric sprott) cos i didnt like to wait for a break between his countless interviews  ... and yes, billionaires are fellows like you and me, they just patiently answer questions and try to explain their attitude 

why i dont like investors/traders :-=)

yes, i especially dont like to be wrong on the markets myself .... but lets look what did my top 6 positions 2day (in €uros, of course ;-)

• scorpio mining -12.3%
• 1st majestic silver -3.2%
• novagold -0.1%
• u.s. gold -1.1%
• orko silver -1.3%
• endeavour silver -3.9%

damn, what happened 2day? well, after a small intra-day correction climbed gold to its all-time-high $1,496 and silver to its 30-years-high $43.43 per ounce (current quotes) !!!

who is crazy and whos not, my dear mr. market? any lessons learned? yep!

• the investors/traders know the price of everything and the value of nothing
• the 2008 panic selling is back in the markets :-(

mad world, isnt it? well, lets go against the crowd again, my gold/silver producers are not going to go bankrupt at these metal prices, are they?

ps: bad luck with my paper silver positions 2day as well: 2 out of 4 contracts sold during the shoooort silver price correction @ $42.42 and 42.24 (with nice profits) only 2 see the silver rally up to $43.43 after that 

pps: i love my crazy wife 

bull & bear at the elevator (source: cover of the german 'austrian economy' finance magazine smart investor)

investors = stupid idiots who sell their stocks even for a price next to nothing and then wonder why fell 'the markets' that low ~ jaro gruber

addendum april 14, 2012 (source of the picture facebook)

soooo true ... when in fear they sell their stuff even at a price next 2 nothing, when greedy no price is high enough :-)

addendum november 2012: same issue, different story ~ coeur d'alene ...

endeavour silver (TSX:EDR)

addendum april 15th, 2014: i know what is the problem with the low, low, low gold + silver prices in 2013 + 2014, my dears. well, there was an investors' lunch event in munich few days ago and endeavour was also there. it was a nice update about the company, which mastered to reach a output of 6.8m ounces of silver in 2013, but you know what? two of its 3 mexican silver mines produce silver at all-in-cost around or even below the current silver price, which is $19.5 per ounce today. got it? there are producers who earn no money or even lose money to over-supply the market at these  low, low, low gold + silver prices. of course the price can't go up if there is sooooo much supply even at these levels. what will the producers do if the metal prices go up? probably complain that they have no gold/silver left as they've sold it so cheap in 2013 + 2014 ... supply + demand pattern, as so often in the long run 

1oz silver from endeavour silver

what about the investors' lunch with endeavour silver representatives 2day? hmmmmmm, i think i'm rather the folk festival than the noble restaurant type of guy, you know? well, of course it was delicious, all that small portions on huge plates with funny decoration, tasty wine, etc.  ... 

OMG! do u know what did i like most? the surprise gift ~ the nice company's 1 oz silver coin! well, i'm probably more an investor than a good eater :-). yabbadabbadooo, my growing collection of 'my' silver companies silver coins now includes:

• endeavour silver
• first majestic silver
• scorpio mining
• nevada pacific gold (that company doesn't exist any more! btw, do u think about old, old, old silver roman coins right now? do they still have any value? is silver better than paper? any other thoughts?)

what about endeavour silver? of course, i enjoyed the chance 2 meet the old-known-faces behind the company in munich again! of course, i own already few shares of that promising silver producer. of course, i increased my endeavour holdings after that damned crashy october 2008, so my position is +115.56% right now. what's the best? well, there is NOTHING TO WORRY about! they have 2 profitable operating silver mines, they are looking for the 3rd mine (exploration vs. acquisition), there is no further need to dilute the existing share base as the cash-flow provides enough money in order to finance future growth (unless there would be some major acquisition opportunity out there), the production records should continue further and, in the long term, the silver price increase could continue as well, so the share price should go up, isn't it? 

so what to do? well, let's lean back + enjoy the company's development + the rising share price of that IMHO low-risk portfolio position + let's hope if there will be some significant company and/or market related price corrections on the road i will be wise enough and still solvent to increase my endeavour position on dips :-)

1oz silver, endeavour silver

addendum june 6th, 2010: folks, i've just bought few more shares of EDR (@ CAD 3.52) today. they've have been somehow stronger than their peer group in recent general market correction, let's interpret that as relative strength ... LOL

successful endeavours + good luck, my dear endeavour silver