my column in BElog @be24.at launched 2day ;o)

folks, do not hesitate to visit me @ that funny austrian finance site be24: my blog posts. what was the first posting about? of course, it was about our dear homo habilis aka homo sapiens financialis.

(source: www.eromism.com/img/homo_habilis_sapiens.jpg)

homo sapiens financialis :-)

leute, leute, leute ... wie verrückt sind wir börsianer tatsächlich? und wie verrückt sind goldexploreraktien? warum? noch vor paar tagen wollte KEINER was von vg gold wissen (den gold bugs sicherlich noch unter dem namen vedron gold bekannt) und plötzlich kommt eine kauforgie zustande, als ob's morgen keine aktien mehr geben sollte :-).

da vermeldet einfach die von der finanzkrise ordentlich durchgeschüttelte vg gold, daß sich nun rob mcewen (~ 'warren buffett' unter den goldinvestoren) über seine lexam explorations beteiligt hat und schon brennt eine sicherung nach der anderen durch ... innerhalb von paar minuten stieg der kurs um +126.92% auf CAD $0.295 ... hmmmmm, sind nun alle verrückt oder nur unser lieber mr. market? haben die glücklichen käufer nicht gelesen, daß rob mcewen gerade mal CAD $0.08 bezahlt hat? und wird der preis bald wieder zurück auf 8 cents fallen? na ja, wir werden es schon sehen :-). die umsätze waren natürlich - der hysterie entsprechend - von mickrigen 47.000 stück pro tag auf 3,6 mio geklettert! am folgetag ist der kurs sogar auf CAD $0.41 gestiegen! für mathematiker unter uns setzt bei rob's renditeberechnung der verstand komplett aus ... griff zum taschenrechner ...tatsächlich ... eine verfünffachung!?!?

ach ja, wie sieht bei sowas der 6-monats-chart aus? etwa soooooo :-)

btw, was macht lexam explorations an so einem tag? klar, +35.71%, vielleicht ist ja plötzlich deren vg gold beteiligung mehr wert als die ganze firma selber ... huhuuuuu, taschenrechner, bist du noch da? und war es bei porsche + VW nicht anfangs auch so ähnlich?

uuuuuund wie war's noch mal 1711 während der south sea company mania?

der chart

die story

waaaaas, unser homo sapiens financialis hat nicht einmal in 300 jahren was gelernt? ich glaube, er lernt's nie :-))

leute, was LERNEN WIR daraus?

• verschwende keine zeit + geld für falsche sachen
• kaufe nur das richtige
• das investieren ist sooooo einfach :-))

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ein kleiner nachtrag + ein weiteres bsp. für das traurige herdenverhalten unseres 'sapiens': nach 2 tagen, wo so gut wie alle gold/silber aktien brutalst gefallen sind, ist heute die umkehrrichtung gefragt und nun steigen sie alle in hohen einstelligen bis kleinen zweistelligen raten, natürlich mit ausnahme von vg gold: im tagesverlauf +28,3% und schlußkurs +20,0%. kein kommentar :-)

... und sorry, daß ich erst nachträglich den 'south sea chart' hochladen konnte, irgendwie hat mein webbrowser noch immer ein problem mit dem zertifikat von be24.at und erlaubt mir nicht den text zu formatieren + links (gscheit) zu setzen, aus MS word passend einzufügen etc. => also die klassischen anlaufschwierigkeiten, stimmt's?

danke fürs vorbeischauen + lg aus münchen :-),

jaro.

übrigens, hier ist der link auf den original be24.at-BElog :-)

quo vadis, homo sapiens financialis?

there were 2 baaaad 'red ink' days in a row 4 commodity bulls, but the market (IMO toooo much USD-strength-oriented) turned in a different direction today and eliminated biggest part of recent losses again .... my portfolio is +1.89%, better than the overall stock market ...

btw, the stock-markets are sooo strange ... going few points higher, than few points down and then higher again ... folks,

isn't it like a man walking with his dog? sometimes is the dog in front, sometimes the man, but they always go in the same direction ... (oh dear! my stupid interned & stock-exchange addicted brain cannot remember who used that phrase 1st... graham, buffett, kostolanyi? who cares? the prices will go their own way anyway, with or without the leash ...)

damned hell, i hope my portfolio will go up a lot in the long run!!!

what about bravo venture? vg gold? well, my recent acquisitions advanced +20% today ... hmmmmm, we know there is still a strange hysteria in vg gold stock, but is s.th. strange coming up at bravo too? let's look at company's news (Bravo Venture Group Inc.: Drilling Underway at Homestake Ridge 2:16 PM ET, July 27, 2009: Bravo plans an aggressive +$5.0 million drilling program consisting of approximately 8,500 metres in up to 40 drill holes. Bravo anticipates an approximate 70-day field season, which should conclude in October. ...). well, that's nothing special, gold explorer have to drill 4 gold ... and the stock didn't do much on July 28, 2009 either ... but who knows?

armageddon 4 commodity bugs ...

gold, silver, base metals, agriculture, energy ... everything is down, down, down today

.. the commodity stocks fell even much more than the commodities itself

oil WTI -1.47%, gold -1.56%, silver -2.49%, my portfolio -2.86%, natural gas -2.9%, XAU -4.02%, barrick -4.23%, HUI -4.27%, silver standard res. -5.34%, goldcorp -6.18%, rangold -7.57%, ...

there are sunny days, there are rainy days and there is a complete desperateness ... like today

damned hell!

FORGET about the south sea company! REMEMBER vg gold :-)

what about homo sapiens financialis? after rob mcewen participated in the financing of struggling vg gold, the folks out there act like crazy lemmings! he had paid CAD 0.08 per vg gold's share, today (~4 trading sessions later) paid the folks CAD 0.405 (!!!). that's more than 5 times as much ... wanna see the 6 months chart? here we go: InformedChart ... well, let's watch if the price comes back down soon or if there is actualy a new level established

ps: i'm not sure if the homo sapiens did learn anything over centuries, let's look back to 1711 in tek's blog about the south sea company mania

pps: you still remember my initial blog post on vg gold issue?

ppps: thx goodness i've stuck 2 my investment strategy and didn't catch the fast buck @CAD 0.29 as the stock was @ CAD 0.405 today. btw, who knows how long will the party last?

indicated conclusions: do not waste your time + money on wrong things! buy just the right ones! this investment stuff is soooooo easy

as always, follow the InformedDiscussion here or simply drop a comment bellow :-)

paper money, paper wealth?

folks, do u see that unbelievable increase in monetary base? can u also imagine that nasty hyper-inflation monster coming here and eat us alive?

=> is that just an InformedChart or already a PictureOfNoReturn???

(source: st. louis fed )

damned hell! that's worse than in zimbabwe, argentina, germany (after WW1 + WW2), russia, hungary, ... COMBINED, isn't it?

(addendum, december 19,2009) next chart added, even a little bit worse than the 1st one because it begins 40 years earlier, i think:

(source: http://www.dollardaze.org/)

what 2 do facing these monstrous 'market conditions'? well, i think the best solution is to buy some hard/real assets which cannot be printed out of thin air like paper money ~ commodities, (fair priced!) real estate + farm land, gold + silver [= money of market's choice over thousands of years], revenue generating business, ... and last but not least: to spend some money + time with family + friends

good luck ;-)

btw, in order 2 read the discussion on this topic switch 2 informedtrades, ok?

rob mcewen invests in vg gold => +126.92% today!

crazy gold explorer stocks!

folks, u know rob mcewen? yes? fine! no? also fine, just imagine the 'warren buffett' of the gold market 

folks, pls tell me how stupid the homo sapiens finacialis is? yesterday no one liked my struggling portfolio position – vedron gold (renamed 2 vg gold recently), today is there a buying orgy as if there were no stocks tomorrow! the stock is +126.92% just now and sells @ CAD 0.295 … hmmmmm, didn’t the folks read that rob mcewen's lexam explorations paid just CAD 0.08 per vedron's share? will the price fall to CAD 0.08 later on? ... 5 hours later ... vedron closed @CAD 0.255 (+96.15%), the volume was 3,642,169 stocks. what about the avg. volume? would u like to guess? .......... just 47,300 stocks a day .... crazy homo sapiens finacialis!

thx goodness i’ve increased my stake in vedron gold in may by approx. 60%. not bad jaro, not baaaaaaad at aaaaaaaall, yabbadabbadooo 

damned hell, why didn’t tweet rob that message to me before informing all these media guys? and when will he invest also in my other struggling (nevada based!) gold explorers/miners like bravo ventures, coral gold, miranda gold, … and when will he increase his own stake in u.s. gold 2 help his weak performing stock also gain +126.92% in a single day?

btw, 3 years ago (march 5, 2006), he announced to take-over 4 (nevada based) gold companies and bought 3 of them actually (nevada pacific gold + white knight resources + tone resources) … he also bought a major part of minera andes (@ CAD 1, current price CAD 0.83) recently, so let’s hope his appetite 4 gold stocks isn’t satisfied yet ... good luck, rob 

ps: lexam explorations (one of mcewen's companies and the actual buyer of vedron's stock) is +35.71% today (maybe is their vedron investment at current price more worth than lexam itself - let's check the numbers later o). well, it's also nice 4 my portfolio even if lexam is still 50% down compared to my purchase price in summer 2007 (far before the october 2008 crash for most metal explorer stocks have destroyed sooo many dreams). btw, mcewen's flagship us gold is +2.33% today.

pps: folks, you still remember my comments about rob mcewen in my blog post concerning the gold-dow-ratio (Posted 07-19-2009), don’t u? 

ps: 2 read the whole discussion, pls go informedtrades.

pps: folks, i do feel like if bravo venture could be the next take-over target ... wanna read more ? oki, pls follow here ...

addendum april 12, 2010: king world news interviewed rob mcewen on april 10, 2010 ... wanna hear the interview? pls go here :-)
In this interview Rob discusses the disastrous course of US policy, the possibility of hyperinflation in the US, consolidation in the mining sector, the coming explosive mania that will send gold skyrocketing in price and much more.

addendum november 5th, 2010: folks, ive met rob mcewen @ the precious metals fair in munich ... he was the key speaker of the conference, so i will prolly post some insights in my planned blog abt the event tomorrow or on sunday. just to let you know that (in his opinion) the time for buying gold/silver & mining stocks isnt over yet as he still sticks to the dow-gold-ratio in order 2 see when there is time for other opportunities than gold in the markets 

event coverage:  munich's precious metals fair

bought some more natural gas ... and sold orange juice

folks, i've increased my long position just now a little bit at $3.69 ... it's still cheap enough, isn't it?
it quotes @ $3.64 now, my next buy limits are set to $3.33 and $3.13, but i do not really think we will see that price again ... [30 minutes later] ... folks, it's soooo late in munich, i'm going to bed now, gas quotes @ $3.69 as the USD is falling against the €UR slightly and all (so early) traded commodities (gold, silver, oil, gas, ...) are slighlty rising in their USD notations... do u call that a zero-sum-game 4 europeans, don't u?

btw, i would like to buy also wheat @ about $500 - $530, but (for my security needs) my trading account is not capitalized accordingly, so let's stick 2 silver, o-juice, gas + coffee ...

ps: got some orange juice & coffee today?

addendum december 7, 2009: natural gas is +8.31% today ... read my 2 happy comments below :-)

pps: update march 17, 2010: #jarosells orange juice (or see comment #3 below)

dow-gold-ratio :o)

the #1 GOLDBUGs FAQ: when will 1 ounce of gold (or 2?) buy the whole DJIA again?

100-years-chart (view full page here: http://twitpic.com/atjk8):

i've found & stored (= saved, not stolen ;-) that beautiful picture from http://www.usgold.com/ when the ratio was 15. they've changed the black background color to white ... and the ratio is 9 now ... as long as they will not remove that chart from their website you can always check the current ratio here.

btw, rob mcewen's us gold is my single biggest (stock) investment, but unfortunately still struggling a lot . anyway, i think/hope/believe they'll find some significant gold deposits ... and develop gold mines ... and pay fat dividends ... and their stock will skyrocket as goldcorp's led by rob mcewen did many years ago .

take care,
j.

ps: instead of care i would rather take share in that gold rally started in 1999 and lasting till ??? ... well, who knows that, but let's hope that this 100-years-old-indicator will not prove wrong this time :-)

addendum 05/25/2010: no, no, no!!! there is a guy who wants 2 destroy all my believes abt gold, stocks, good & evil ... OMG! OMG! OMG! robert rethfeld, the www.wellenreiter-invest.de guy, posted the dow-gold-ratio since 1800 and look: the ratio is not going 2 reach 1 or 2 any time in the future, is it? does that really mean that stocks outperform gold in the long run? btw, are the DJIA dividends included in the DJIA price calculation?

folks, im not going 2 believe that crazy stuff (posted on may 22th, 2010) 2day.... lets go 2 bed and think abt that 2morrow :-)

i'm ready for the take-off

i'm thinking about vacation on bali / indonesia ... but have to wait 4 more weeks till take-off :-)

we've just booked a hotel and breakfast, so there will be plenty of opportunities to go outside and see the life out there + visit some temples, volcanoes, rice fields, komodo dragons, ... and maybe also jakarta/java, but i'm not sure if jakarta is not toooo far away ...

we'll look at the offers from local travel agencies .. and i hope we will see a many new + interesting people + things there :-)

GOLD rally in august AGAIN ???

august 2001, august 2003, august 2005, august 2007, AUGUST 2009 (!!!)

hell, that would be soooooo great for my gold + silver + energy + commodity stocks based portfolio

well, we will discover that soooon

btw, what's your opinion?

take share ,

jaro

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folks, few interesting comments taken from the corresponding discussion pages @ www.informedtrades.com):

jaro, you think gold rallies in august for seasonal/cyclical reasons? any particular fundamental cause you think?of course i am still a gold bug...not sure if it will rally in august, but i think we will see a big rally by end of year....also, COMEX is looking to change rules so that futures can deliver GLD ETFs instead of actual bullion upon delivery. so i think physical delivery is becoming more important.

Posted Today at 09:11 AM by Simit Patel

... the most often mentioned seasonal reason for gold is prolly the wedding season in india, who (which?) is the major consumer of physical gold worldwide, i think ... but there is for sure every year a wedding season in india, isn't it? but why did gold/silver rally just in years with odd numbers and not in even years? that will prolly forever stay mr. market's secret ... unless someone finds out some major relationship to the moon calendar or the like good luck,j.

Posted Today at 11:29 AM by jaro g.

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to see all comments, pls visit the informedtrades website here.

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ps: how much is 1 oz gold in USD?

• july 17, 2009 = $935.0 ........... today
• dec 31, 2009 = $1,096.5
• dec 31, 2010 = ?
• dec 31, 2011 = ??
• dec 31, 2012 = ???
• ...

addendum 12-31-2009: what abt recapitulation at the end of the year?

yep, gold rallied a lot in fall & winter and it has reached a new all-time-high at $1,226 on december, 3rd ... well, after that it fell a little bit and closed the year 17.27% higher than in july at $1,096.5 (~spot price @ kitco.com, btw, all 6 websites i looked for the closing price had slightly different quotes => crazy!). anyway, the fundamentals for gold have improved since then (more paper money out there, decreasing gold production (peak gold!), increasing (investment) demand, central banks are buyer on balance, etc.) => therefore let's enjoy the GOLDEN RALLY in 2010 as well

of course, do not forget the SILVER!

source: www.goldalert.com/_layouts/images/gold_bars.jpg

what abt the book value of a company? i've bought 2 more commodity stocks 2day

i couldn't resist the temptation and bought (still cheap enough ) two more commodity stocks before these crazy price jumps today:

• cbh resources - base metals, gold in australia
• cardero resources - iron ore, copper, precious metals in peru, usa, argentina

folks, cardero's market capitalization is approx $56m. they've sold one of their iron ore properties in peru to a chinese investor for $100m and will receive the remaining $88m soon. what about working capital, book value, etc? they will not throw all that money out of window or gamble in casinos like dave & shoot recently ( lol), will they?

it sounds like a sound investment 2 me. i think benjamin graham & warren buffett would be very proud of me .

to see all comments, pls visit the informedtrades website here.

addendum, december 19, 2009: just wanna borrow CAD 87.341 million, who's gonna help me?

folks, stock markets are sooo crazy, you know? there are days i don't believe my eyes! do u know what do i do then?

well, i watch the unexpected stock price quote, look 4 possible company news, read the company message twice, look at the quote again, read the message again, sometime even try to put some funny numbers into my calculator (and always throw the calculator away as it neither gives me a result nor an answer as i'm prolly too stupid to use it anyway), then take a walk, drink next cup of coffee, watch the new quote after returning back ... btw, you can call yourself 'happy' because you don't need 2 hear how ugly do i swear abt the sooo stupid homo sapiens financialis on days like that

i know, dear readers of my blog, you still remeber these strange cardero resources guys with all their strange iron ore, gold, copper projects in peru/usa/argentina, don't you?

well, the current quote was abt +25% today. me, happy, thought: hell, they've found the next eldorado or got a bulk of money from FED for ZERO interest rate or BOTH! forget it, nothing like that happened! what was the market mover 2day then? yep, the chinese partners have paid the remaining USD 88 million (USD is correct!) on their major peruvian iron ore property. hmmm, of course they did, why shouldn't they? well, the stock closed trading @ its day low, which was +14.62%, anyway.

we've spoken abt all these book value / cash reserves / etc. things above. hmmmm, what's your guess concerning the current market capitalization of cardero? ... you are right, it is only CAD 87.341 million. again, CAD is correct! also i don't see the current cad/usd ratio i can tell you the buck is even stronger than the loonie at the moment! (i have both currencies as usd/eur + cad/eur pairs in my watch list, because i do sometimes compare (~not compute! still the same calculator issue) the prices of my u.s. + canadian stocks in germany and america, you know?)

UNBELIEVABLE! the've just got USD 88 million + still have plenty of cash from the 1st rate payment of USD 12m + mineral deposits in peru/usa/argentina + investments in other companies like the 2 which i've posted above + petty cash + whatever else they own/posses !!! do you call markets RATIONAL?

well, lets borrow the antic CAD 87.341 million + buy the whole company + enjoy the UNBELIEVABLE!-assets!!!

hell, hell, hell! this investing stuff is sooooooo easy :-)

thx, mr. market, thx!

ps: does someone have the telephone number of the money-printing-wonder bernanke? of course, just in case there will be not enough money to borrow inside the blogger community :-)

damned hell, what happened 2 my trading & investing?

folks, there are sooooo many reasons why i do not trade / invest / follow the markets / write / ... as before!

• first of
  
• all, i do follow social media websites like twitter, facebook, xing, youtube etc. soooo often and soooo long that i simply do not have much time left
  
• i've already invested all available money in the last few months / weeks. btw, my last stock purchase was the exercise of my rio tinto warrants on july 1st. well, there are no additional investment funds currently and i'm also not going 2 sell my gold / silver / green energy / commodity / technology stocks yet ... why not? hmmmmm, i'm waiting till the DJIA will quote @ about 1 or 2 oz gold. 'cos the DJIA/gold ratio fell just bellow 9 recently it could take some more time, couldn't it?
• i still haven't found any peace of mind because of soooo much nonsense & injustice in my daily office job (i'm a software developer, u still remember that?)
• i do know that i'm not the super-duper talented market timer so i do not try to do much noise in my CFD trading account anyway ... i hope i have a comfortable margin coverage now (approx. 2,000 €uros) so i just add 2 my commodity positions like silver / natural gas / sugar / orange juice / coffee if i believe the prices are damned low ... and in the most cases the damned prices become even lower so i buy even more of that stuff ... did i read too much about jim rogers lately?
  
• i do not use to sit so many hours in front of my pc as before
• folks, is it prolly a combination of all of that? who knows

to see all comments, pls visit the informedtrades website here.

my all-time-favorite BOOKS

a) amazon usa books (here you need dollars :-)

carousel

the legandary speculator jesse livermore


jim rogers


larry williams


robert kiyosaki


jack schwager


peter lynch


benjamin graham
watch out, it's soooo important but damned hard to digest :-(. well, we shouldn't forget that it was warren buffett's lecture on his road 2 become the richest man on earth)


van tharp (trader coach)


some more stuff


german books (if you want 2 pay with dollars. btw, for €uro accounts just scroll down :)



b) amazon germany books (here you need €uros :-)

of course, 1st you need some finance books ...


... and then some be happy / be balanced / esoteric books :-)

what's the best book for vacation?

folks, i still couldn't finish benjamin graham's intelligent investor yet (an really interesting but hard and slowly to read lecture for 'defensive investor')


... but i would like to take s.th. more funny with me ... hell, what do u think: should i take jack schwager with me



... or peter lynch?


or better my wife + the kiddies? just kidding :-)

btw, what are my all-time-favorites? well, here we go !!!

cheaper than expected vacation => some funds 4 gold/silver available soon?

folks, folks, folks! my wife has booked our summer holidays now ... and the winner is ... is ... bali /indonesia :o). well, i'm looking forward to spend 3 weeks in south-east asia again (have been to thailand many years ago). komodo dragons, we are coming soon!

it was much cheaper than expected! pls, don't ask me with how many 'stars' was our vacation cottage rated, ok? btw, our eldest daughter proposed to contribute some money to our family's vacation cash-box just in order to allow us to choose a more interesting holiday destination than the usual mediterranean sea. what a child, isn't it? ... do i understand this situation correctly if i hope that there could be some funds left 4 additional addendum 2 our gold/silver stocks soon?

let's think how to invest 1,000 - 2,000 €uros in our commodity / hard assets column As Smart As Possible (=: asap, or more precisely my investing based redefinition of that famous acronym :-). what about physical silver, silver-ETFs, commodity stocks, renewable energy, nanotechnology ... any suggestions yet?

btw, do you also feel that komodo sounds exact the same as commoditities :D ... hmmm, is that a hint of fate 2 buy more commodities, isn't it?